26.8.11

On Que!

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So here it is ......the USA telling India that China is a threat to India, after ALL the years of the Pentagon sending billions of $ worth of arms from 1954--2011 to Pakistan, subsequently and inevitably used against India in 3 wars since.

A lot of trouble for India comes from Pakistan. Pakistan is a failed state run by the USA.

It would help India if the USA didn't give ANY military aid to Pakistan, first and foremost, before advising India directly and indirectly to take on China as a regional rival.

It would help India ENORMOUSLY, if the USA didn't destabilize Pakistan using the Pakistan military. A destabilized Pakistan is never good for India.

It would help India SIGNIFICANTLY if credible stable civilian governments were backed into power in Islamabad by the USA, rather than supporting comical, inept, corrupt puppet regimes like Zardari bhen's who as I understand it has been advised by the USA embassy to visit every country in the world save India.

Taking a tough stand against China is fine within reasonable precautionary strategic parameters, if you have the capacity and ability to do it. You don't need the Pentagon to tell YOU what is best for India's defense and strategic policy. On the other hand, whilst the pro-USA Times of India sells its Pentagon Power Point Presentation, it never the less also points out India's weakness viz China military power.

A mere 39 ordinance factories only; 70% imported arms which will require constant foreign supplied maintenance & spares........in a war against a super-power foe thats going to be tough; a professional military that is not geared for long wars......for several years of hard knuckle duster slogging.....the 49,000 serving officers will be finished in short order given India's military philosophy; no credible numbers of mountain artillery, mortars, AA, SAM's, lt SAM's, helicopters......infrastructure/roads......bunkers......arms depots in the vicinity.....no standard FGA made in India in the 1000's.

Basic war making stuff.

Given these weaknesses, it is better for India not to confront China militarily......but instead try co-existence. We must not repeat the mistake of Nehru, who shunned Chinese efforts at negotiating Askai Chin and other issues, but instead blustered against China, AND through Krishna Menon undermined the Indian military AS WELL, until it was too late. After the war, Menon resigned, and lost his parliamentary seat, and Nehru the "non-aligned leader of the world" had the wind taken out of him.......ie he never looked happy after that fateful 2 weeks incident.

The USA under Kennedy looked sympathetic despite fervent appeals for help from Nehru, provided no help. It was the Soviet Union which quietly told China to cease their successful military campaign.

Let us be clear and careful on such issues.

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Pentagon warns India of Chinese build-up


By Rajat Pandit of the Times of India (NY)

The Red Dragon is spreading its wings and sharpening its claws at a rapid clip. From deadly long-range nuclear missiles and an expanding blue-water Navy to potent space and cyber warfare abilities, China will have a "modern" military capable of prolonged high-intensity combat operations by the end of this decade.

Pentagon's latest assessment of the expanding military might of China, released on Thursday, paints a scary picture of the frenetic pace at which the 2.25-million People's Liberation Army (PLA) is being modernized, in the backdrop of uncertainty over its long-term intentions.

Though the US report holds that thwarting any American intervention in Taiwan remains PLA's "main strategic direction", New Delhi can ill-afford to ignore China's increasing trans-border military capabilities, its assiduous strategic encircling of India and hardening posture in the border talks.

The report itself notes PLA has replaced its older liquid-fuelled, nuclear-capable CSS-2 intermediate range ballistic missiles with the "more advanced" solid-fuelled CSS-5 medium-range ballistic missile systems along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) to "strengthen its deterrent posture" against India.

"A high level of mistrust continues to strain the bilateral relationship...India remains concerned over China's close military relationship with Pakistan and Beijing's growing footprint in the Indian Ocean, Central Asia and Africa," says the report.

All this might not startle the Indian defence establishment, which also keeps a close tab on PLA, but the fact remains that China can now move over 30 divisions (each with over 15,000 soldiers) to the LAC within a month to outnumber Indian forces by at least three-is-to-one due to the huge military infrastructure build-up in Tibet.

India has taken some steps in recent years to counter China, which range from planning a new mountain strike corps (over 35,000 combat troops) in 2012-2017 after raising two new divisions (over 15,000 soldiers each) in Nagaland and Assam to deploying Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, missile batteries and spy drones in the North-East, as reported by TOI earlier.

But a lot more clearly needs to be done. China, after all, is fast steaming ahead with its projects to build its first stealth fighter, the J-20, and multiple aircraft carriers after its first, the 67,500-tonne Varyag acquired surreptitiously from Ukraine, began sea trials recently.

Moreover, China has a hyper-active ballistic and cruise missile programme to add to its already huge nuclear arsenal. They include missiles like the DF-21D ballistic missile to kill aircraft carriers or large ships over 1,500-km away, the road-mobile DF-31A capable of hitting targets 11,200-km away, and the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile with a reach beyond 7,200-km. "China's nuclear arsenal currently consists of 55-65 ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles), apart from (5-20) IRBMs, (75-100) MRBMs and (1,000-1,200) SRBMs," says the Pentagon report.

China, of course, also helps Pakistan to boost its military capabilities, with the clear intention to bog down India in South Asia. Pakistan remains China's primary customer for weapons, with sales ranging from JF-17 and F-7 fighters, F-22P frigates and early warning and control aircraft, tanks and missiles, says the report.