26.1.16

Russia's fifth column and the USA instituted political framework in Russia

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This is a long historical problem that has its origins from Peter the Greats time in the early 18th century, when some Western Russians unconditionally looked to Europe for leadership, inspiration and as their spiritual homeland, taking their misguided cue from Czar Peter.

It is a weakness.

It is an inferiority complex, where others/outsiders manipulate the locals to do their bidding.

It is a strategic security challenge for Russia. Consider the rumor that Stalin eliminated the entire Soviet military leadership on the eve of war in 1937 (everybody understood that there would be war between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union)...on the orders of the Rothschilds of London. The Soviet Union by the late 1930's had become the premier military power with 6.7 million mobilisable men, 24,000 tanks, 200,000 artillery and an 18,000 airforce. Nazi Germany had no chance against such an enormous power ......but the Bankers desired a long slogging match between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union (The essence of the action in WWII), as German rearmament left the country still way behind the Soviet Union with its head start.

There is nothing wrong in admiring something that is good, successful and rich...but we must not surrender to it slavishly, unconditionally in a misguided way like naive children at the sweet shop/department store and icecream parlour.

Then the country becomes a hostage and a slave.

Then the Jewish/German freemasons system and secret societies came into existence in the 19th century to add another layer of treachery and betrayal in Russia.

Then the Jewish Bolshevik system entered the Russian empire through the 5-7 million Jews in the empire, with the backing of European and American high finance and start up loans...which would have a globalist 'international' agenda and which of course had nothing to do with Russia's real needs.....but would manage to kill 60 million people in the country.

The Russian fifth column still exists, today, and finally the writer has written about it after promising to do so for some time.

Russia is an important country for the world. It is important Russia wins this internal struggle, just as it fights for justice around the world against the evil Western bankers.

The same for China.

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Putin's Biggest Failure: Not Cleaning House

Fifth columnists still highly placed in the Russian government represent threats to the country's security, argues The Saker
 
 
Originally appeared at The Unz Review
Whatever happens in the future, Putin has already secured his place in history as one of the greatest Russian leaders ever. Not only did he succeed in literally resurrecting Russia as a country, but in a little over a decade he brought her back as a world power capable of successfully challenging the AngloZionist Empire. The Russian people have clearly recognized this feat and, according to numerous polls, they are giving him an amazing 90% support rate. And yet, there is one crucial problem which Putin has failed to tackle: the real reason behind the apparent inability of the Kremlin to meaningfully reform the Russian economy.
As I have described it in the past many times, when Putin came to power in 1999-2000 he inherited a system completely designed and controlled by the USA. During the Eltsin years, Russian ministers had much less power than western ‘advisers’ who turned Russia into a US colony. In fact, during the 1990s, Russia was at least as controlled by the USA as Europe and the Ukraine are today. And the results were truly catastrophic: Russia was plundered from her natural wealth, billions of dollars were stolen and hidden in western offshore accounts, the Russian industry was destroyed, a unprecedented wave of violence, corruption and poverty drowned the entire country in misery and the Russian Federation almost broke up into many small statelets. It was, by any measure, an absolute nightmare, a horror comparable to a major war. Russia was about to explode and something had to be done.
Two remaining centers of power, the oligarchs and the ex-KGB, were forced to seek a solution to this crisis and they came up with the idea of sharing power: the former would be represented by Anatolii Medvedev and the latter by Vladimir Putin. Both sides believed that they would keep the other side in check and that this combination of big money and big muscle would yield a sufficient degree of stability.
I call the group behind Medvedev the “Atlantic Integrationists” and the people behind Putin the “Eurasian Sovereignists”. The former wants Russia to be accepted by the West as an equal partner and fully integrate Russia into the AngloZionist Empire, while the latter want to fully “sovereignize” Russia and then create a multi-polar international system with the help of China and the other BRICS countries.
What the Atlantic Integrationists did not expect is that Putin would slowly but surely begin to squeeze them out of power: first he cracked down on the most notorious oligarchs such as Berezovskii and Khodorkovskii, then he began cracking down on the local oligarchs, gubernatorial mafias, ethnic mobsters, corrupt industry officials, etc. Putin restored the “vertical [axis]of power” and crushed the Wahabi insurgents in Chechnia. Putin even carefully set up the circumstances needed to get rid of some of the worst ministers such as Serdiukov and Kudrin. But what Putin has so far failed to do is to
  • Reform the Russian political system
  • Replace the 5th columnists in and around the Kremlin
  • Reform the Russian economy
The current Russian Constitution and system of government is a pure product of the US ‘advisors’ which, after the bloody crackdown against the opposition in 1993, allowed Boris Eltsin to run the country until 1999. It is paradoxical that the West now speaks of Putin’s despotic presidency when all he did is inherit a western-designed political system. The problem for Putin today is that it makes no sense to replace some of the worst people in power as long as the system remains unchanged. But the main obstacle to a reform of the political system is the resistance of the pro-Western 5thcolumnists in and around the Kremlin. They also the ones who are still forcing a set of “Washington consensus” kind of policies upon Russia even though it is obvious that the consequences for Russia are extremely bad, even disastrous. There is no doubt that Putin understands that, but he has been unable, at least so far, to break out of this dynamic.
So who are these 5th columnists?
I have selected nine of the names most often mentioned by Russian analysts. These are (in no particular order):
Former First Deputy Prime Minister Anatolii Chubais, First Deputy Governor of the Russian Central Bank Ksenia Iudaeva, Deputy Prime Minister Arkadii Dvorkovich, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, Governor of the Russian Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, former Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, Minister of Economic Development, Alexei Uliukaev, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov and Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev.
The Russian 5th column: Chubais, Iudaeva, Dvorkovich, Shuvalov, Nabiullina, Kudrin, Uliukaev, Siluanov, Medvedev
The Russian 5th column: Chubais, Iudaeva, Dvorkovich, Shuvalov, Nabiullina, Kudrin, Uliukaev, Siluanov, Medvedev

This is, of course, only a partial list – the real list is longer and runs deeper in the Russian power structure. The people on this list range from dangerous ideologues like Kudrin or Chubais, to mediocre and unimaginative people, like Siluanov or Nabiullina. And none of them would, by him or herself, represent much of a threat to Putin. But as a group and in the current political system they are a formidable foe which has kept Putin in check. I do believe, however, that a purge is being prepared.
One of the possible signs of a purge to come is the fact that the Russian media, both the blogosphere and the big corporate media, is now very critical of the economic policies of the government of Prime Minister Medvedev. Most Russian economists agree that the real reason for the current economic crisis in Russia is not the falling price of oil or, even less so, the western sanctions, but the misguided decisions of the Russian Central Bank (such as floating the Ruble or keeping the interest rates high) and the lack of governmental action to support a real reform and development of the Russian economy. What is especially interesting is that vocal opponents of the current 5th column now get plenty of air time in the Russian media, including state ownedVGTRK. Leading opponents of the current economic policies, such as Sergei Glazev, Mikhail Deliagin or Mikhail Khazin are now interviewed at length and given all the time needed to absolutely blast the economic policies of the Medvedev government. And yet, Putin is still taking no visible action. In fact, in his latest yearly address he as even praised the work of the Russian Central Bank. So what is going on here?
First, and to those exposed to the western propaganda, this might be difficult to imagine, but Putin is constrained simply by the rule of law. He cannot just send some special forces and have all these folks arrested on some kind of charge of corruption, malfeasance or sabotage. Many in Russia very much regret that, but this is fact of life.
In theory, Putin could simply fire the entire (or part) of the government and appoint a different Governor to the Central Bank. But the problem with that is that it would trigger an extremely violent reaction from the West. Mikhail Deliagin recently declared that if Putin did this, the West’s reaction would be even more violent than after the Crimean reunification with Russia. Is he right? Maybe. But I personally believe that Putin is not only concerned about the reaction of the West, but also from the Russian elites, particularly those well off, who generally already intensely dislike Putin and who would see such a purge as an attack on their personal and vital interests. The combination of US subversion and local big money definitely has the ability to create some kind of crisis in Russia. This is, I think, by far the biggest threat Putin his facing. But here also we can observe a paradoxical dynamic:
One one hand, Russia and the West have been in an open confrontation ever since Russian prevented the USA from attacking Syria. The Ukrainian crisis only made things worse. Add to this the dropped prices on oil and the western sanctions and you could say that Putin now, more then ever, needs to avoid anything which could make the crisis even worse.
But on the other hand, this argument can be flipped around by saying that considering how bad the tensions already are and considering that the West has already done all it can to harm Russia, is this not the perfect time to finally clean house and get right of the 5th column? Really – how much worse can things really get?
Only Putin knows the answer to this simply because only he has all the facts. All we can do is observe that the popular discontent with the “economic block” of the government and with the Central Bank is most definitely growing and growing fast, and that the Kremlin is doing nothing to inhibit or suppress such feelings. We can also notice that while most Russians are angry, disgusted and frustrated with the economic policies of the Medvedev government, Putin’s personal popularity is still sky high in spite of the fact that the Russian economy most definitely took a hit, even if it was much smaller than what the AngloZionist Empire had hoped for.
My strictly personal explanation for what is happening is this: Putin is deliberately letting things get worse because he knows that the popular anger will not be directed at him, but only at his enemies. Think of it, is that not exactly what the Russian security services did in the 1990s? Did they not allow the crisis in Russia to reach its paroxysm before pushing Putin into power and then ruthlessly cracking down on the oligarchs? Did Putin not wait until the Wahabis in Chechnia actually attacked Dagestan before unleashing the Russian military? Did the Russians not let Saakashvili attack South Ossetia before basically destroying his entire military? Did Putin now wait until a full-scale Ukronazi attack on the Donbass before opening up the “voentorg” (military supplies) and the “northern wind” (dispatch of volunteers) spigots? Putin’s critiques would say that no, not at all, Putin got surprised, he was sleeping on the job, and he had to react, but his reaction was too little too late and that when he had to take action it was only to fix a situation which had turned into a disaster. My answer to these critiques is simple: so what happened at the end? Did Putin not get exactly what he wanted each time?
I believe that Putin is acutely aware that his real power base is not primarily the Russian military or the security services, but the Russian people. This, in turn, means that for him to take any action, especially any dangerous action, he must secure an almost unconditional level of support from the Russian people. That, in turn, means that he can only take such risky action if and when the crisis is evident for all to see and that the Russian people are willing to have him take a risk and, if needed, pay the consequences. This is exactly what we saw in the case of the reunification of Crimea or the current Russian military intervention in Syria: the Russian people are concerned, they are suffering the consequences of the decision of Putin to take action, but they accept it because they believe that there is no other option.
So there you have it. Either Putin is sleeping on the job, is caught off-guard by each crisis and reacts too late, or Putin deliberately lets a situation worsen until a full-scale crisis is evident at which point he acts with the full knowledge that the Russian people fully support him and while blame him neither for the crisis, nor for the price of decidedly dealing with you.
Pick the version which seems more plausible to you.
What is certain is that so far Putin has failed to deal with the 5th column near and inside the Kremlin and that the situation is rapidly worsening. The recent move by Kudrin to try to get back into the government was a rather transparent use of the pro-5th column media in Russia (and abroad) and it predictably failed. But this shows an increasing self-confidence, or even arrogance, of the Atlantic Integrationists. Something in bound to happen, probably in the near future
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24.1.16

USA backing ISIS.......whilst pretending and announcing that it will fight ISIS in Syria, Iraq Libya, and Afghanistan and else where.

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The USA support of the barbaric evil ISIS terrorists has four pillars:

(i) Destabilization of the Middle East over decades to create Eretz Israel from the ashes of the surrounding Arab states. The USA, with plummy speaking officials has annexed itself to the policy of a far far right extremist racist Apartheid policy agenda from Israel, about which most Israelis aren't even aware of, or are able to discus openly because they are ignorant of it........AND like most extremists dreams it is something that will not be realized, but not before the world has suffered terribly for many more years.


(ii) Generate business and work for the military/industrial complex in the USA

(iii) Re-orientate the ISIS terrorists against other countries such as Russia (5,000--7,000 Russian ISIS terrorists in Syria/Turkey/Iraq....gaining work experience) and China (5,000 Chinese ISIS terrorists in Syria/Turkey ....gaining work experience for the eventual destination), eventually.

(iv) Scare the American people into accepting a police state, and the world into accepting American SECURITY GUIDANCE and guarantee. The USA is good, and is to be trusted in matters of security....and if you like you can buy some arms and expertise from them. The Americans can't do it themselves, and so they have allies such as the UK, Israel, France, Qatar, Turkey and of course Saudi Arabia. 'al-Qaeda' is now worthless as a propaganda tool so a new scare is created and that is ISIS.

The existence of ISIS created by the USA, means vital global matters cannot be progressed.....matters which have not been manufactured by the CIA..but require urgent attention. EXAMPLE:

Climate Change
Over population
Diminishing resources
Space travel
Corruption
Governance
Education
Trans national crime
Sustainable Development
Globalization
International Trade

The world has become beholden to faggot, drug peddling, pedophile spooks who set the primary agenda for the world. This is not good for human civilization.

The Soviet Union collapsed just when the KGB took over its running, de facto after Brezhnev. 

The article below, whilst well written is misleading......the CIA is not groping around in the dark searching for allies.... 

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Saudis Bankroll CIA Backing of Syrian terrorists

US Saw Scheme as Way to Channel Saudi Aid to Potential Allies

by Jason Ditz at antiwar.com
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While it’s no secret that the CIA has had a “covert” program supplying weapons to Syrian rebels for years, and it’s likewise no secret that Saudi Arabia has been throwing large sums of money and arms at rebel factions, it’s only now being understood how closely linked those two schemes were.
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The administration is said to have seen the plan as a way to get control over the Saudi arms smuggling into Syria, fearing the Saudis would be willing to send arms to factions the US wouldn’t see as allies. This largely didn’t work, of course, meaning the US-Saudi arms ended up more or less everywhere.
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The Saudis, meanwhile, saw letting the US in on their arms scheme as both a rubber stamp for continuing the program, and as a way to oblige the US to let them be involved in the final settlement talks on the Syrian War, and back Sunni Islamist factions.
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The TOW anti-tank missiles and Chinese anti-aircraft missiles that ended up in the control of various rebel factions, including ISIS and other Islamists, were provided by and large through the CIA program, and sourced and paid for by the Saudis.

17.1.16

Full Iran sanctions to be lifted from today

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Iran Sanctions Lifted as IAEA Confirms They’re in Full Compliance With Deal

Kerry Orders US Sanctions Immediately Lifted

by Jason Ditz,at antiwar.com

As expected, the International Atomic Energy Agency has issued a statement today affirming that Iran is is full compliance with all commitments under the P5+1 nuclear deal, with IAEA chief Amano Yukiya praising all involved for making the pact happen.
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The IAEA statement obliges the international community to lift all nuclear sanctions against Iran, something they have wasted no time doing. Even the US, which was believed to be the last to abide by the treaty, has seen an order by the State Department to immediately lift all nuclear sanctions.
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This means tens of billions, and by some estimates over $100 billion in Iranian assets, frozen in the West, will be freed up, and Iran will be able to sell its oil internationally like any other country. The freed up assets are expected to set the stage for massive Iranian spending on modernization of their economy. (INDUSTRY AND INFRASTRUCTURE...TARGET OF 10% GDP growth)
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The last measure Iran needed to complete for compliance, the removal of the core from the Arak Heavy Water reactor, was completed Friday. The reactor, meant to produce medical isotopes, is to be re-designed by one of the P5+1 members, likely China, to satisfy international objections.
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The hopes that the implementation would boost international diplomacy with Iran were bolstered by a side deal between Iran and the US to exchange prisoners. Five US detainees were freed in return for seven Iranians in this case.
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Iran’s Reformist Rouhani government ran for election heavily on a pledge to make a deal to end the nuclear sanctions, and was eager to get the relief in place before next month’s elections, allowing them to campaign on the success. Though it had initially been speculated today’s confirmations would take until spring, that ultimately was not the case.

Public announcement......changes to google blog

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GOOGLE will remove the ability for people with Twitter, Yahoo, Orkut or other OpenId providers to sign in to Google Friend Connect and follow blogs. At the same time.

GOOGLE encourages you the reader to tell affected readers (perhaps via a blog post), that if they use a non-Google Account to follow your blog, they need to sign up for a Google Account, and re-follow your blog. With a Google Account, they’ll get blogs added to their Reading List, making it easier for them to see the latest posts and activity of the blogs they follow.

9.1.16

Sanctimonious bastard democracy---LIBERATED Bangladesh, with Russian help.

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The USA directed ISIS problem and challenge for China via Uighur terrorism and the services of NATO Turkey, USA occupied Afghanistan and Pakistan WILL BE  written eventually, in the previous post. I badly needed to write that post when I saw ugly pictures of fully armed combat troops in the streets of Beijing in December, last year. They had been deployed in the Capitol after the USA embassy gave out vague, unsubstantiated warnings that ISIS/Uighur terrorists would target that city.


This kind of behavior is more than expected from Indonesia, where there is a secret nexus between the military and Islamic terror groups which causes ALL the terror in the country, directed by the CIA/MOSSAD and the USA trained generals of the Indonesian army.

This kind of behavior is more than expected from Pakistan, where there is a secret nexus between the military and Islamic terror groups which causes ALL the terror in the country, directed by the CIA/MOSSAD and the USA trained generals of the Pakistan army, through the ISI.......the Pathankot attack in India being the latest.

I felt deeply sad that the next great hope and superpower of the world...a force for global peace and justice had succumbed to mere 'gossip' to lock down its capital city, into a military camp.......what a shame! China jumps up and sits down when the USA orders it to, without thinking about the consequences for itself by itself. 

China needs to know that the USA together with Israel is the primary sponsor of state terrorism. Modern transnational terrorism does not morph by itself by magic, but requires the extensive resources of a state to do so....USA, Israel, France, UK, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia in the case of ISIS.

China needs to know these facts before more drastic draconian laws are introduced in the PRC akin to a military coup....and which harm millions of innocent Chinese people. China needs to know these facts so that it can more effectively fight international terrorism. 

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I was in East Pakistan/Bangladesh when the civil war began. The Pakistan army murdered 3,000,000 people and raped 500,000 women and girls in order to 'save' the place from India. I lived in an Island during that war, though I have vivid memories of the full horrors of the war....dead bodies of rival groups, floating corpses on the river Meghna, dogs feasting on corpses, jet fighters buzzing our house on their way to bombing a strategic bridge; Bhairab bridge......columns of tanks rumbling through the countryside....freedom fighters scavenging for food as they passed through...followed by Pakistani commando's looking for said freedom fighters.

India birthed Bangladesh, aided by RUSSIA.

The USA and more specifically Tricky Dicky tried to prevent this natural process, and downplayed the very real Pakistani army genocide which we experienced....even lauding it as necessary evil...after all how else did the British empire rule India, and its 400 million people? Pakistan was a Cold War ally of the USA, and Nixon's and Indira Gandhi personal Chemistry didn't mix.....There is a section of the American elite which loathe India's moral and spiritual leadership (A role that only belongs to the USA of course).......when and where it is applied in the international scene.

Sadly now India is led by an extreme right wing gay puppet of the USA brought into power by them and Israel, through the mechanism of populism, religious zealotry and false flag terrorism (South India...where the CIA/MOSSAD has had a strong presence since the days of the Tamil Tigers)....Modiji is on his 100th visit to the USA no doubt.

India and Russia's role in Bangladesh is not forgotten, however.

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1971 War: How Russia Sank Nixon’s Gunboat Diplomacy

Exactly 44 years ago, India won a famous victory over Pakistan due to its brilliant soldiers, an unwavering political leadership, and strong diplomatic support from Moscow. Less well known is Russia’s power play that prevented a joint British-American attack on India

By Rakesh Krishnan Simha in the Russia & India Report and Russia Insider.

Washington DC, December 3, 1971, 10:45am.
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US President Richard Nixon is on the phone with Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, hours after Pakistan launched simultaneous attacks on six Indian airfields, a reckless act that prompted India to declare war.
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Nixon: So West Pakistan giving trouble there.
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Kissinger: If they lose half of their country without fighting they will be destroyed. They may also be destroyed this way but they will go down fighting.
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Nixon: The Pakistan thing makes your heart sick. For them to be done so by the Indians and after we have warned the bitch (reference to Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi). Tell them that when India talks about West Pakistan attacking them it's like Russia claiming to be attacked by Finland.
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Washington, December 10, 1971, 10:51am.
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A week later the war is not going very well for Pakistan, as Indian armour scythes through East Pakistan and the Pakistan Air Force is blown out of the subcontinent’s sky. Meanwhile, the Pakistani military in the west is demoralised and on the verge of collapse as the Indian Army and Air Force attack round the clock.
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Nixon: Our desire is to save West Pakistan. That's all.
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Kissinger: That's right. That is exactly right.
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Nixon: All right. Keep those carriers moving now.
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Kissinger: The carriers—everything is moving. Four Jordanian planes have already moved to Pakistan, 22 more are coming. We're talking to the Saudis, the Turks we've now found are willing to give five. So we're going to keep that moving until there's a settlement.
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Nixon: Could you tell the Chinese it would be very helpful if they could move some forces or threaten to move some forces?
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Kissinger: Absolutely.
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Nixon: They've got to threaten or they've got to move, one of the two. You know what I mean?
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Kissinger: Yeah.
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Nixon: How about getting the French to sell some planes to the Paks?
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Kissinger: Yeah. They're already doing it.
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Nixon: This should have been done long ago. The Chinese have not warned the Indians.
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Kissinger: Oh, yeah.
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Nixon: All they've got to do is move something. Move a division. You know, move some trucks. Fly some planes. You know, some symbolic act. We're not doing a goddamn thing, Henry, you know that.
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Kissinger: Yeah.
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Nixon: But these Indians are cowards. Right?
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Kissinger: Right. But with Russian backing. You see, the Russians have sent notes to Iran, Turkey, to a lot of countries threatening them. The Russians have played a miserable game.
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If the two American leaders were calling Indians cowards, a few months earlier the Indians were a different breed altogether. This phone call is from May 1971.
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Nixon: The Indians need—what they need really is a—
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Kissinger: They’re such bastards.
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Nixon: A mass famine. But they aren't going to get that…But if they're not going to have a famine the last thing they need is another war. Let the goddamn Indians fight a war.
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Kissinger: They are the most aggressive goddamn people around there.
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The 1971 war is considered to be modern India’s finest hour, in military terms. The clinical professionalism of the Indian army, navy and air force; a charismatic brass led by the legendary Sam Maneckshaw; and ceaseless international lobbying by the political leadership worked brilliantly to set up a famous victory.
After two weeks of vicious land, air and sea battles, nearly 100,000 Pakistani soldiers surrendered before India's rampaging army, the largest such capitulation since General Paulus' surrender at Stalingrad in 1943. However, it could all have come unstuck without help from veto-wielding Moscow, with which New Delhi had the foresight to sign a security treaty in 1970.
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As Nixon’s conversations with the wily Kissinger show, the forces arrayed against India were formidable. The Pakistani military was being bolstered by aircraft from Jordan, Iran, Turkey and France. Moral and military support was amply provided by the US, China and the UK. Though not mentioned in the conversations here, the UAE sent in half a squadron of fighter aircraft and the Indonesians dispatched at least one naval vessel to fight alongside the Pakistani Navy.
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However, Russia’s entry thwarted a scenario that could have led to multiple pincer movements against India.

Superpowers face-off
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On December 10, even as Nixon and Kissinger were frothing at the mouth, Indian intelligence intercepted an American message, indicating that the US Seventh Fleet was steaming into the war zone. The Seventh Fleet, which was then stationed in the Gulf of Tonkin, was led by the 75,000 ton nuclear powered aircraft carrier, the USS Enterprise. The world’s largest warship, it carried more than 70 fighters and bombers. The Seventh Fleet also included the guided missile cruiser USS King, guided missile destroyers USS Decatur, Parsons and Tartar Sam, and a large amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli.
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Standing between the Indian cities and the American ships was the Indian Navy’s Eastern Fleet led by the 20,000-ton aircraft carrier, Vikrant, with barely 20 light fighter aircraft. When asked if India’s Eastern Fleet would take on the Seventh Fleet, the Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Vice Admiral N. Krishnan, said: “Just give us the orders.” The Indian Air Force, having wiped out the Pakistani Air Force within the first week of the war, was reported to be on alert for any possible intervention by aircraft from the Enterprise.
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Meanwhile, Soviet intelligence reported that a British naval group led by the aircraft carrier Eagle had moved closer to India’s territorial waters. This was perhaps one of the most ironic events in modern history where the Western world’s two leading democracies were threatening the world’s largest democracy in order to protect the perpetrators of the largest genocide since the Holocaust in Nazi Germany. However, India did not panic. It quietly sent Moscow a request to activate a secret provision of the Indo-Soviet security treaty, under which Russia was bound to defend India in case of any external aggression.
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The British and the Americans had planned a coordinated pincer to intimidate India: while the British ships in the Arabian Sea would target India’s western coast, the Americans would make a dash into the Bay of Bengal in the east where 100,000 Pakistani troops were caught between the advancing Indian troops and the sea.
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To counter this two-pronged British-American threat, Russia dispatched a nuclear-armed flotilla from Vladivostok on December 13 under the overall command of Admiral Vladimir Kruglyakov, the Commander of the 10th Operative Battle Group (Pacific Fleet). Though the Russian fleet comprised a good number of nuclear-armed ships and atomic submarines, their missiles were of limited range (less than 300 km). Hence to effectively counter the British and American fleets the Russian commanders had to undertake the risk of encircling them to bring them within their target. This they did with military precision.
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In an interview to a Russian TV programme after his retirement, Admiral Kruglyakov, who commanded the Pacific Fleet from 1970 to 1975, recalled that Moscow ordered the Russian ships to prevent the Americans and British from getting closer to “Indian military objects”. The genial Kruglyakov added: “The Chief Commander’s order was that our submarines should surface when the Americans appear. It was done to demonstrate to them that we had nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean. So when our subs surfaced, they recognised us. In the way of the American Navy stood the Soviet cruisers, destroyers and atomic submarines equipped with anti-ship missiles. We encircled them and trained our missiles at the Enterprise. We blocked them and did not allow them to close in on Karachi, Chittagong or Dhaka."
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At this point, the Russians intercepted a communication from the commander of the British carrier battle group, Admiral Dimon Gordon, to the Seventh Fleet commander: “Sir, we are too late. There are the Russian atomic submarines here, and a big collection of battleships.” The British ships fled towards Madagascar while the larger US task force stopped before entering the Bay of Bengal.
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The Russian manoeuvres clearly helped prevent a direct clash between India and the US-UK combine. Newly declassified documents reveal that the Indian Prime Minister went ahead with her plan to liberate Bangladesh despite inputs that the Americans had kept three battalions of Marines on standby to deter India, and that the American aircraft carrier USS Enterprise had orders to target the Indian Army, which had broken through the Pakistani Army’s defences and was thundering down the highway to the gates of Lahore, West Pakistan’s second largest city.
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According to a six-page note prepared by India's foreign ministry, "The bomber force aboard the Enterprise had the US President's authority to undertake bombing of the Indian Army's communications, if necessary."
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China in the box
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Despite Kissinger’s goading and desperate Pakistani calls for help, the Chinese did nothing. US diplomatic documents reveal that Indira Gandhi knew the Soviets had factored in the possibility of Chinese intervention. According to a cable referring to an Indian cabinet meeting held on December 10, “If the Chinese were to become directly involved in the conflict, Indira Gandhi said, the Chinese know that the Soviet Union would act in the Sinkiang region. Soviet air support may be made available to India at that time.”
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Interestingly, while the cable is declassified, the source and extensive details of the Indian Prime Minister’s briefing remain classified. “He is a reliable source” is all that the document says. There was very clearly a cabinet level mole the Americans were getting their information from.
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Intolerable hatred
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On December 14, General A.A.K. Niazi, Pakistan's military commander in East Pakistan, told the American consul-general in Dhaka that he was willing to surrender. The message was relayed to Washington, but it took the US 19 hours to relay it to New Delhi. Files suggest senior Indian diplomats suspected the delay was because Washington was possibly contemplating military action against India.
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Kissinger went so far as to call the crisis “our Rhineland” a reference to Hitler’s militarisation of German Rhineland at the outset of World War II. This kind of powerful imagery indicates how strongly Kissinger and Nixon came to see Indians as a threat.
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An Indiana University study of the conflict says: “The violation of human rights on a massive scale—described in a March 30 US cable as “selective genocide”—and the complete disregard for democracy were irrelevant to Nixon and Kissinger. In fact, the non-democratic aspects of Pakistani dictator Yahya Khan’s behaviour seemed to be what impressed them the most. As evidence mounted of military atrocities in East Pakistan, Nixon and Kissinger remained unmoved. In a Senior Review Group meeting, Kissinger commented at news of significant casualties at a university that, ‘The British didn’t dominate 400 million Indians all those years by being gentle’.”
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Nixon and Kissinger phoned Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev and asked for guarantees that India would not attack West Pakistan. “Nixon was ready to link the future summit in Moscow to Soviet behaviour on this issue," writes professor Vladislav M. Zubok in A Failed Empire. "The Soviets could not see why the White House supported Pakistan, who they believed had started the war against India. Brezhnev, puzzled at first, was soon enraged. In his narrow circle, he even suggested giving India the secret of the atomic bomb. His advisers did their best to kill this idea. Several years later, Brezhnev still reacted angrily and spoke spitefully about American behaviour."
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Cold Warriors
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Another telephone conversation between the scheming duo reveals a lot about the mindset of those at the highest echelons of American decision making:
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Kissinger: And the point you made yesterday, we have to continue to squeeze the Indians even when this thing is settled.
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Nixon: We've got to for rehabilitation. I mean, Jesus Christ, they've bombed—I want all the war damage; I want to help Pakistan on the war damage in Karachi and other areas, see?
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Kissinger: Yeah
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Nixon: I don't want the Indians to be happy. I want a public relations programme developed to piss on the Indians.
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Kissinger: Yeah.
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Nixon: I want to piss on them for their responsibility. Get a white paper out. Put down, White paper. White paper. Understand that?

Kissinger: Oh, yeah.
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Nixon: I don't mean for just your reading. But a white paper on this.
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Kissinger: No, no. I know.
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Nixon: I want the Indians blamed for this, you know what I mean? We can't let these goddamn, sanctimonious Indians get away with this. They've pissed on us on Vietnam for 5 years, Henry.
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Kissinger: Yeah. 
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Nixon: Aren't the Indians killing a lot of these people?
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Kissinger: Well, we don't know the facts yet. But I'm sure they're not as stupid as the West Pakistanis—they don't let the press in. The idiot Paks have the press all over their place.

24.11.15

Why is the Chinese government SILENT, when 5000 Chinese citizens fight for ISIS against Socialist Syria.

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China should be pro-active and play a positive role in the world. This includes confronting the 5,000 Chinese citizens who are fighting with ISIL in Syria, or based in Turkey waiting to fight in Syria and China.

It behooves the new superpower on earth to deal with its own problem in the international scene, in Syria......and help the embattled government there.

It behooves the new superpower on earth to deal with its own problem in the international scene, in Syria.....and supporting its ally Russia in Syria.

As in the case of the Russian involvement in confronting ISIS in Syria, which has enhanced Russia's image and position in the world........China's position in the world will also be enhanced as a true defender of global security. 

With size, and prosperity and development comes responsibility. 

China cannot merely rely on economic development to ensure its position in the world. It must also commit to security operations beyond its borders to ensure that the world is safe to do business in. China cannot rely on Russia or the USA to that solely.

If middle ranking powers such as France and the UK can commit to fighting ISIS, so should China in an international coalition.

If a 1000 French citizens were fighting with ISIS in Syria....the French government would take action in that theater. 

If a 1000 UK citizens were fighting with ISIS in Syria....the UK government would take action in that theater. 

So why not China?

The commitment of just 30 or 1% of the PLAAF jet fighters in enough. Supporting the Russians. Nobody is asking for ground troops. The best planes and the best pilots to showcase the achievements of the PLAAF.

This is even a prayer in Israel, from where rumors of Chinese military involvement in Syria were copy pasted on this blogsite.

http://mostaqueali.blogspot.com/2015/10/china-will-fight-isis.html

What China should not do publicly in the international arena, is state that it is helpless as a successful state in confronting its own terrorist problems. Russia, The UK, France do not EVER say this to the world.

In fact most governments around the world do not plead helplessness about terrorists to the world.

As part of its propaganda, the USA is deliberately obtuse, about fighting ISIS. This is because the USA:

1.Covertly supports ISIS, as a tool of destabilization of target countries.

2. The USA military needs to be inside, or near the target country for destabilisation.

3. And is the reason why USA military and security experts repeatedly state that it will take the noble USA 100 years to defeat ISIS.

4. Why the worthless USA military airstrikes achieve so little against ISIS, BUT do destroy the strategic infrastructure of the target countries....Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

FOR CHINA THIS ANALYSIS IS RELEVANT IF THE ISIS FIGHTERS GO BACK TO CHINA DIRECTLY.

OR ARE LAUNCHED INTO CENTRAL ASIA FROM AFGHANISTAN. THE USA MILITARY HAS MASSED 6000 ISIS FIGHTERS IN AFGHANISTAN.

OR THEY INFILTRATE STRATEGIC PARTNER PAKISTAN, AND LAUNCH ATTACKS AGAINST CHINA FROM THERE.




Modern terrorism.....especially transnational terrorism is state funded.

Without the logistics, money, training, travel documents, safe shelter, fuel.....and modern weapons...a 21st century terrorist cannot operate:

Their numbers (From Wikipedia):

In Iraq and Syria
200,000[17] (Kurdish claims)
70,000 (Russian military estimate)[18]
100,000[19] (Jihadist claim)
80,000–100,000 [20] (CIA estimate)


Key state sponsors of ISIS are the USA (LEAD NATION)...France, UK, Israel, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Each of the Western countries and Middle East countries have their own motivations for sponsoring ISIS.

For China and its attempt to deal with Uighur terrorism in China.....the relevant countries of focus are the USA (The lead sponsor of ISIS) Turkey, Afghanistan and finally Pakistan.

USA motivations



The USA motivation for supporting ISIS, and Chinese ISIS has 4 clear strands:

(i) Bernard Lewis and the Arc of Crisis: 1970's to the present

(ii) The Clean Break document 1996


(iii) The Grand Chessboard strategy  1998.

(iv) Project for a New American Century 2000

Turkish motivations
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43816.htm

"IHS-Jane’s Defence Weekly estimated in October that as many as five thousand Uighur would-be fighters have arrived in Turkey since 2013, with perhaps two thousand moving on to Syria. Moustapha said he has information that ‘up to 860 Uighur fighters are currently in Syria."


Afghanistan ( The Central Asian staging post of ISIS)




 


Pakistani motivations.



Conclusion

China should not wait patiently for the 5,000 Chinese-ISIS terrorists massed in Syria/Turkey to come to China and create great mayhem and destruction via the staging posts of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia. China should fight them in Iraq and Syria BEFORE this situation occurs. The ISIS Chinese are in Turkey and Syria now gaining fighting experience.

All members of the Permanent Security Council have committed their armed forces to fight in Syria and Iraq. So should China. The problems in Syria/Iraq is not an irrelevant far away phenomenon for China. 

China is committed to sending 8,000 troops for UN operations around the world. Why not make such such a commitment to Syria and Iraq, with the permission of the two governments?

New Chinese Security legislation authorities China to dispatch her armed forces to fight abroad in order to confront terrorism and destabilization. Under this legislation, China can send limited forces to Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS, and deal with the Chinese ISIS menace there.

China is the richest country in the world, and the most industrialized. China is 5 times richer than Russia. China should use this fortune to arm the legitimate governments of Iraq and Syria, so that it is they who do the critical fighting against ISIS. 

China's Eurasian plan is grand and very critical for the welfare and security of China. However a viable Eurasian/SCO plan must have security and counter terrorism to ensure its long term success. China's aid to Pakistan of $50 billion is lauded as is the $56 billion to Iran and the Silk Road INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS in Central Asia. However infrastructure and economic investment in themselves are not enough, and like the EU.....there must also be a viable NATO element in the SCO. And to make it viable it must have a military element, with joint military operations, and China leading such initiatives. Part of such an initiative involves China sending armed forces to Iraq and Syria.

To do otherwise will be seen as weakness. 

China must show solidarity with Russia, and the scenario in Syria/Iraq presents an opportunity for China to stand shoulder to shoulder with Russia, and further solidify their security cooperation. 

It is impossible that China as the sole superpower on earth in the future can practically maintain quiet, aloof, non-interventionism around the world, whilst simultaneously attempting to protect its vital economic interests, with a great blue water navy. CHINA WILL HAVE TO COMMIT TO MILITARY OPERATIONS AROUND THE WORLD....SOONER rather than later. Often operating outside the scope of the UN, where various interests of several countries clash.

Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan amongst other countries are begging for Chinese friendship and cooperation. Iraq contains the second largest deposits of oil, Iran gas and Afghanistan many strategic minerals such as Lithium, copper and so forth. As the USA retreats from such countries after decades of malpractice, abuse and destabilization (Due to American racism, Islamophobia which it fosters on the world via its propaganda machine....and elite worship of the devil, and of course Israel)...........CHINA can enter into genuine partnerships with such countries with direct eventual land links to China via the SILK ROADS projects. Logically part of that process involves a security dimension with China taking an organizational lead. Syria is a Russian satellite since the late 1950's, but Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan are not.

China should consider sending the PLAAF, and marines to Iraq, if not Syria. Such acts embolden the local government and gives them greater courage to move closer strategically to China. Iran by itself does not have the resources to protect the country against ISIS. 
 

23.11.15

Why Assad must prevail

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And its not because he is a great leader or even a competent good leader....but.

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CONGRESSWOMAN: CIA MUST STOP ATTACKING ASSAD by aangirfan



US Congresswoman Introduces Bill To Stop Illegal War on Assad.

From US CongresswomanTulsi Gabbard

“Here are 10 reasons the U.S. must end its war to overthrow the Syrian government of Assad:
  1. Because if we succeed in overthrowing the Syrian government of Assad, it will open the door for ISIS, al-Qaeda, and other Islamic extremists to take over all of Syria.  There will be genocide and suffering on a scale beyond our imagination.  These Islamic extremists will take over all the weaponry, infrastructure, and military hardware of the Syrian army and be more dangerous than ever before.
  2. We should not be allying ourselves with these Islamic extremists by helping them achieve their goal because it is against the security interests of the United States and all of civilization.
  3. Because the money and weapons the CIA is providing to overthrow the Syrian government of Assad are going directly or indirectly into the hands of the Islamic extremist groups, including al-Qaeda affiliates, al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, and others who are the actual enemies of the United States.  These groups make up close to 90 percent of the so-called opposition forces, and are the most dominant fighters on the ground.
  4. Because our efforts to overthrow Assad has increased and will continue to increase the strength of ISIS and other Islamic extremists, thus making them a bigger regional and global threat.
  5. Because this war has exacerbated the chaos and carnage in Syria and, along with the terror inflicted by ISIS and other Islamic extremist groups fighting to take over Syria, continues to increase the number of Syrians forced to flee their country.
  6. Because we should learn from our past mistakes in Iraq and Libya that U.S. wars to overthrow secular dictators (Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi) cause even more chaos and human suffering and open the door for Islamic extremists to take over in those countries.
  7. Because the U.S. has no credible government or government leader ready to bring order, security, and freedom to the people of Syria.
  8. Because even the ‘best case’ scenario - that the U.S. successfully overthrows the Syrian government of Assad - would obligate the United States to spend trillions of dollars and the lives of American service members in the futile effort to create a new Syria.  This is what we have been trying to do in Iraq for twelve years, and we still have not succeeded.  The situation in Syria will be much more difficult than in Iraq.
  9. Because our war against the Syrian government of Assad is interfering with our being one-pointedly focused on the war to defeat ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the other Islamic extremists...
  10. Because our war to overthrow the Assad government puts us in direct conflict with Russia and increases the likelihood of war between the United States and Russia and the possibility of another world war.”

22.11.15

Sovereignty and respect for the Westphalian state out, False flag muscle power diplomacy in.

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Of course when we have countless occasions of Israeli and Western proxy backing of ISIS/ al-Qaeda....such information will not count.

Only the False flags of 9/11 and Paris 13/11....count.

LOGICALLY and LEGALLY the first thing you do if you're serious about fighting ISIS is arming the legitimate governments already elected in power in Baghdad and Damascus, and increasing the capabilities of their military.

The Syrian military used to be 335,000 in 2011, but is now only 125,000. Instead of giving 3.4 billion euro's to ISIS enabler Turkey.......you give that money to the Syrian government, or direct arms aid.....medical aid....infrastructure aid.

Instead of spending $11 billion on illiterate refugees, let go suddenly without consultation by Turkey into the EU....in 2015 ALONE.........you spend as much for the Syrian armed forces.......who are fighting and killing ISIS on a daily basis.




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PARIS ATTACK - NEW WORLD ORDER by aangirfan


Brabantian writes:

Retired Indian Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar, suggests that, thanks to the Paris operation, we have just seen the brutal enactment by the UN of the 'New World Order' we have all long feared, with Russia formally abandoning its previously claimed respect for national sovereignties, as the UN unanimously declares an open season of bloodshed upon millions of people, where any 'great power' has an open licence to bomb and kill in the Middle East because of 'Islamic State ISIS'.

As M K Bhadrakumar points out, UN Resolution 2249 passed after the Paris attacks, endorsed unanimously led by USA - Russia - China - Britain - France, invites any and all countries to feel free to attack & invade Syria & Iraq, ignoring those countries' own governments ... 



Turkey has already attack operations on Syria ... 




And Israel is now given full international 'legal' licence to attack inside Syria & Iraq.



As Bhadrakumar asks, "What about the legitimate governments of Iraq and Syria, which are UN member countries too? 



"The R 2249 simply ignores them as inconsequential entities. This is an appalling stance. 



"Russia, which has been shouting from the roof top regarding the sanctity of the principle of national sovereignty to berate the US-led coalition, simply made a U-turn. 



"Crass opportunism, pragmatism, tradeoff, diplomacy – call it what you will, but a core principle in inter-state conduct upheld under the UN Charter has been given the pass. 



"Is this any different from the rape of Abyssiniya when the League of Nations was alive? ... Clearly, R 2249 opens a Pandora’s box ... 



"Russia lost the moral high ground it was painstakingly climbing ..."

So Russia, which was invited by Assad into Syria to protect it, has now signed on to giving Turkey , Israel , Saudi , Qatar , UK , France , others, the right to 'legally' bomb , attack Syria as they have long been doing via their support for their 'Islamic State' covert vehicle.

Why not cease funding foreign adventures?

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Why not cease funding foreign adventures in Syria, Iraq and Yemen?

This will save money.

Why not cease buying expensive military hardware from the USA/UK?

Which gather dust and rust in most cases.......Saudi Arabia has no REAL conventional enemies, save for those which are imagined....and created by the .....USA/UK.(The Persians are coming.....get the fire engines out and ready)

Why go to the brink of economic collapse in 5 years time?

Why withdraw $1000 billion from the Jew banks in the West to support such a failing economy, if they become upset and angry as with Qaddafi when he proposed returning $150 billion of Libyan state money from Western banks to create an African reserve bank in 2010?  

Such a move will make Saudi Arabia worthless in the eyes of its Western protectors.......they don't surely love the Jew Casino whore loving Saudi Family, but their petro $ deposited in Western banks, and investment in Western assets and capital.($1000 billion)

Once that goes, so does the protection of the West for the Saudi Royal family.

They will not protect the Saudi family, just because they have told the right people in the West that they are of Jewish descent from Iraq....real Jews. It was known in the West that Qaddafi was Jewish, but did this fact protect him? It was known in the West the Shah was Jewish....the reason his illiterate father was put in power in the first place by the Rothschilds of London, but did this fact protect him? Did the Shah's preferential treatment with Israel.....buying worthless Jew arms from them protect him? Did the Shah giving Israel cheap Iranian oil protect him? Did the Shah carrying out 1000 security ops between SAVAK and MOSSAD especially in Iraq protect him? Did the Shah giving the CIA free reign in Iran......to the point he did not know who or where the CIA operated in his own country help him?

Don't the Saudi family know?...........In London, a Jew of German descent is worth 100 Arab Jews from the Middle East.....just ask the AL-fayads. 


The Bangladeshi soldiers, the Pakistani soldiers, the Egyptian soldiers and the foreign Western mercenaries stationed in the Kingdom in such a situation will not be able to protect the Saudi Royal family.

The Saudis should cut their foreign misadventures immediately.

They should cease the absurdity of Israeli pilots bombing Yemen for their airforce...amongst many other things.

Wise just advice has been given to them for free. 

The Shah of Iran was their puppet and ally.....'The policeman of the Persian Gulf' was his title from them.
 
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fromflickr520
Photo: In this 2013 photo, former Saudi King Abdullah stands next to his younger brother Salman bin Abdul-Aziz al Saud, who was crown prince at the time and is now king of Saudi Arabia. Tribes of the World/Flickr
Using its vast oil wealth, it has quietly spread its ultra-conservative brand of Islam throughout the Muslim world, secretly undermined secular regimes in its region and prudently kept to the shadows, while others did the fighting and dying. It was Saudi money that fueled the mujahedeen in Afghanistan, underwrote Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran, and bankrolled Islamic movements and terrorist groups from the Caucasus to Hindu Kush.
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Today that circumspect diplomacy is in ruins, and the House of Saud looks more vulnerable than it has since the country was founded in 1926. Unraveling the reasons for the current train wreck is a study in how easily hubris, illusion, and old-fashioned ineptness can trump even bottomless wealth.
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Stumbling over oil
The Kingdom’s first stumble was a strategic decision last fall to undermine competitors by upping oil production and, thus, lowering the price. Their reasoning was that, if the price of a barrel of oil dropped from over $100 to around $80, it would strangle competition from more expensive sources and new technologies, including the U.S. fracking industry, the Arctic, and emergent producers like Brazil. That, in turn, would allow Riyadh to reclaim its shrinking share of the energy market.
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There was also the added benefit that lower oil prices would damage countries that the Saudis didn’t like: Russia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Iran.
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In one sense it worked. The American fracking industry is scaling back, the exploitation of Canada’s oil sands has slowed, and many Arctic drillers closed up shop. And, indeed, countries like Venezuela, Ecuador, and Russia took a serious economic hit. But despite obvious signs, the Saudis failed to anticipate China’s economic slowdown and how that would dampen economic growth in the leading industrial nations. The price of oil went from $115 a barrel in June 2014 to $44 today. Because it is so pure, it costs less than $10 to produce a barrel of Saudi oil.
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The Kingdom planned to use its almost $800 billion in financial reserves to ride out the drop in prices, but it figured that oil would not fall below $80 a barrel, and then only for a few months.
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According to the Financial Times, in order to balance its budget, Saudi Arabia needs a price of between $95 and $105 a barrel. And while oil prices will likely rise over the next five years, projections are that the price per barrel will only reach $65. Saudi debt is on schedule to rise from 6.7 percent of GDP this year to 17.3 percent next year, and its 2015 budget deficit is $130 billion.
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Saudi Arabia is spending $10 billion a month in foreign exchange reserves to pay the bills and has been forced to borrow money on the international financial market. Two weeks ago the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) regional director, Masood Ahmed, warned Riyadh that the country would deplete its financial reserves in five years unless it drastically cut its budget.
But the Kingdom can’t do that.
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When the Arab Spring broke out in 2011, the Saudi Arabia headed it off by pumping $130 billion into the economy, raising wages, improving services and providing jobs for its growing population. Saudi Arabia has one of the youngest populations in the Middle East, a lot of it unemployed and much of it poorly educated. Some 25 percent of the population lives in poverty. Money keeps the lid on, but for how long, even with the heavy-handed repression that characterizes Saudi political life?
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Stumbling over Yemen
In March, the Kingdom intervened in Yemen, launching an air war, a naval blockade, and partial ground campaign on the pretense that Iran was behind the civil war, a conclusion not even the Americans agree with.
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Again, the Saudis miscalculated, even though one of its major allies, Pakistan, warned Riyadh that it was headed for trouble. In part, the Kingdom’s hubris was fed by the illusion that U.S. support would make it a short war – the Americans are arming the Saudis, supplying them with bombing targets, backing up the naval blockade, and refueling their warplanes in mid-air.
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But six months down the line the conflict has turned into a stalemate. The war has killed 5,000 people, including 500 children, flattened cities, and alienated much of the local population. It has also generated a food and medical crisis, as well as creating opportunities for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to seize territory in Southern Yemen. Efforts by the UN to investigate the possibility of war crimes were blocked by Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
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As the Saudis are finding out, war is a very expensive business, a burden the Saudis could meet under normal circumstances, but not when the price the Kingdom’s only commodity, oil, is plummeting.
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Stumbling over Syria
Nor is Yemen the only war that the Saudis are involved with. Riyadh, along with other Gulf monarchies, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are underwriting many of the groups trying to overthrow Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. When anti-government demonstrations broke out in 2011, the Saudis – along with the Americans and the Turks – calculated that Assad could be toppled in a few months.
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But that was magical thinking. As bad as Assad is, a lot of Syrians, particularly minorities like Shiites, Christians, and Druze, were far more afraid of the Islamists from al-Qaeda and the IS then they were of their own government. So the war has dragged on for four years and has now killed close to 250,000 people.
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Once again, the Saudis miscalculated, though in this case they were hardly alone. The Syrian government turned out to be more resilient that it appeared. And Riyadh’s bottom line that Assad had to go just ended up bringing Iran and Russia into the picture, checkmating any direct intervention by the anti-Assad coalition. Any attempt to establish a no-fly zone will have to confront the Russian air force, not something that anyone other than U.S. presidential aspirants are eager to do.
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The war has also generated a flood of refugees, deeply alarming the European Union, which finally seems to be listening to Moscow’s point about the consequences of overthrowing governments without a plan as to who takes over. There is nothing like millions of refugees headed in your direction to cause some serious re-thinking of strategic goals.
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It’s a mess
The Saudis’ goal of isolating Iran is rapidly collapsing. The P5+1 – the U.S., China, Russia, Great Britain, France, and Germany – successfully completed a nuclear agreement with Tehran, despite every effort by the Saudis and Israel to torpedo it. And at Moscow’s insistence, Washington has reversed its opposition to Iran being included in peace talks around Syria.
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Stymied in Syria, mired down in Yemen, its finances increasingly fragile, the Kingdom also faces internal unrest from its long marginalized Shia minority in the country’s east and south. To top it off, the IS has called for the “liberation” of Mecca from the House of Saud and launched a bombing campaign aimed at the Kingdom’s Shiites.
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Last month’s Hajj disaster that killed more than 2,100 pilgrims – and anger at the Saudi authorities foot dragging on investigating the tragedy – have added to the royal family’s woes. The Saudis claim 769 people were killed, a figure that no other country in the world accepts. And there are persistent rumors that the deadly stampede was caused when police blocked off an area in order to allow high-ranking Saudis special access to the holy sites.
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Changes in the region
Some of these missteps can be laid at the feet of the new king, Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, and of a younger generation of aggressive Saudis he has appointed to key positions. But Saudi Arabia’s troubles are also a reflection of a Middle East in transition. Exactly where that it is headed is by no means clear, but change is in the wind.
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Iran is breaking out of its isolation and, with its large, well-educated population, strong industrial base, and plentiful energy resources, is poised to play a major regional, if not international, role. Turkey is in the midst of a political upheaval, and there is growing opposition among Turks to Ankara’s meddling in the Syrian civil war.
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Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is impaled on its own policies, both foreign and domestic. “The expensive social contract between the Royal family and Saudi citizens will get more difficult, and eventually impossible to sustain if oil prices don’t recover,” Meghan L. O’Sullivan, director of the Geopolitics of Energy project at Harvard told the New York Times.
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However, the House of Saud has little choice but to keep pumping oil to pay for its wars and keep the internal peace. But more production drives down prices even further, and, once the sanctions come off of Iran, the oil glut will become worse.
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While it is still immensely wealthy, there are lots of bills coming due. It is not clear the Kingdom has the capital or the ability to meet them.