21.11.11

So the Abbottabad raid was a soft coup?

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India resigned to working with civilian government in Pakistan

By Indra Bagchi of the TOI.

As the internal crisis worsens in Pakistan, government sources say that though the standoff between the army and the civilian leadership could affect the peace process with India, India is resigned to working with the regime in Islamabad.

Pakistani president Asif Zardari's "memo" to a former top US military official seeking protection against a feared army coup after the raid to kill Al Qaida chief Osama bin Laden saw ISI chief Shuja Pasha going to London to meet a Pakistani-American businessman who deliver
ed the communication.

(So the Abbottabad raid and the "Memo" were ploys by the military to oust Zardari? Why use such convoluted gay methods of getting rid of the crook, liar and incompetent leadership of Zardari? Why not organize a vote of no confidence in parliament against the Zardari government and there after elections? This at least is honest and true.The false Abbottabad raid brought shame on Pakistan and the Pakistani military.....the memo is not good for Pakistan either because it shows the political leaders to be very treasonous for the sake of saving their own political bacon)


The memo has agitated government-army faultlines after businessman Mansoor Ijaz reportedly carried the letter to Admiral Mike Mullen at the behest of Pakistan's US ambassador Hussain Haqqani in which Zardari promised to cut the Pakistan army and ISI to size after the Osama killing.

The move to dispatch the ISI chief was interpreted in India as an attempt by the Pakistan army to see the back of Zardari. It put into question Pakistan PM Yousuf Raza Gilani's assertion to PM Manmohan Singh that the army had signed on to the peace moves as fresh turmoil may make this no longer hold valid.

Indian officials say Pakistan has also hardened positions on Afghanistan. It has dispensed with the promise of going after the Taliban on its side of the border.

In the past few weeks too, Indian officials have noted the army and it's supporters - Jamaat-e-Islami, Shah Mahmood Qureshi and some members of the Musharraf-promoted PML (Q) joining forces with Imran Khan, who appears to be the army's new favorite.

There are questions over whether this can be the beginning of a coup but Indian analysts believe this may be far-benched at present. The international environment is less forgiving of a coup in Pakistan than ever before, and the Pakistan army is well aware of it.

"The environment is very different from 1999 when Musharraf conducted his coup," sources said. The Pakistan army and ISI are both suffering an unprecedented crisis of confidence and credibility both within the country and outside.

Third, the judiciary is no longer a pliant institution to play rubber stamp.

Besides, it will be a lot more difficult to set aside two mass-based parties like PPP and PML(N) to install a relatively marginal party like Imran Khan's Tehreek-e-Insaaf.

(The Punjabi run TI has got to be better than the current PPP non-government surely, even though the leader of the Insaf is an ex-playboy sportsman with an ex-Jewish wife with 2 Jewish sons (under Jewish law...aka David Headley). Throughout history "came from nowhere parties" have usurped power usually with the help of hidden hands, including the Times of India's favorite Party the RSS allied and mentored BJP which had for many decades 2 seats or there abouts and then suddenly with carefully orchestrated Communal stunts came to power on a populist ticket, with the help of the media.....not unlike the Nazis in Germany created in 1919 by German Intelligence, funded by International Jewish banks and came to power in 1933, ditto Mussolini funded by London, and the Jewish Young Turks funded by London again. Or if you like the more spectacular recent examples the TNC of Libya allied to "al-Qaeda" backed by Western Intelligence and NATO airpower..........and so on....Taliban in Afghanistan 1994, didn't exist...1996 running Kabul thanks to the CIA......Mullahs nowhere in 1978.....coming to power in 1979 thanks to Western Intelligence)

Notwithstanding these calculations, things in Pakistan remain fluid and instability is going to be a feature for some time to come.

"We do what we have to do with Pakistan, and in Afghanistan." said government sources. The primary problem, as the prime minister has repeatedly told Parliament is, there is no longer a single Pakistan for India to engage with. In the circumstances, the relationship too will remain uncertain.

(Thats rather pessimistic given the full spectrum of Indo-Pak relations since 1947.

Negotiations with Pakistan is a PROCESS, which is on-going and should be on-going regardless of the internal dynamics of the failed state number 10.....what were we expecting? Every little gain, such as offering the MFN status to India is a bonus...and so forth.

There are various power structures in Pakistan something the Indians must be aware of already:

1. The old power structure of the Tamindars/Zamindars...500 families, left over from the colonial era...Gilani/Bhutto's. Emotionally attached to the UK, where they send their children for education top-up.

2. 30 odd commercial families who have made it big through "Business" in Pakistan .....Nawaz Sharif and family.

3. The military, the most powerful group controlling foreign policy and security and much else, trying forever to wrong foot the civilian government. India should try and open direct channels of communications with them, soldier to soldier via the Indian military high command, regularly...bi-yearly, face to face. Rather than the stale staid civilian to civilian approach. This has been the American strategy via the Pentagon, hence the "Memo".

4. The Americans. Massive bribery of the Pakistani State...the military, ISI and the civilian government.

5. The Chinese. Massive investments into the countries infrastructure and strategic projects.

6. The British......operating through possibly the urban middle class and the TI party of Imran Khan, and elements of the military. Musharaf and even Sharif.

7. Saudi Arabia. Fundamentalist network, Islamic charties.

India has less influence than any of these groups mentioned above but I would like to think India potentially for a variety of factors is in a very strong position.

This is a result of the poor QUALITY/EFFORTS/STRATEGY of Indian foreign policy generally for 64 years, in Pakistan.)