Unlike the Shah of Iran, who was a fundamentally a weak man, who always lived in the shadow of his father, Mubarak is much stronger psychologically. Therefore Mubarak must fight for his country, and stay put...and not run to Western countries where he may be treated badly as was the case with the late Shah who finally was given refuge in Egypt generously like true Arabs.
The Americans have more or less stated that they want a new political leadership in Egypt, as per Obama's speech on Tuesday 1st February. The Jewish former ambassador to Egypt is now going around Egypt informing all of America's new position. The American's no longer want their old puppet Mubarak; they want a new puppet...maybe AlBaradei. This is similar to Pakistan where through "Peoples Power" and American control of the military, General Musharaf the puppet of the USA was removed in 2008, and Asif Zardari was brought into power by the USA. As everybody knows around the world the situation in Pakistan is far far worse now, with Islamists killing senior military officers and politicians. Islamists are now more assertive, and the political and economic situation is far far worse than before.
Musharaf the puppet dictator was bad, Zardari the corrupt puppet of the USA is even worse.
Given this scenario, Mubarak and his Party must fight back for their party, for themselves and above all for their country. They must develop support networks with the Algerian government, and the Libyan government. If Egypt falls into the hand of Islamists then it threatens the stability of the whole of North Africa where governments in the whole region have been fighting Islamists groups.
Mubarak above all must mobilize his party supporters from the 80 million Egyptians who still support him, and undertake progressive, happy counter-demonstrations which do not seek violence with anti-government groups (thus including women and children). These should number 1-5 million in Cairo, immediately and the funds for organizing such rallies in support of Mubarak should be sought from Libya. Libya/Algeria and Egypt must spend a few $ billion dollars in organizing counter-demonstration in response to the demonstrations which have been organized by the USA/ISRAEL.
Mubarak must spend huge amounts of money on peaceful counter demonstrations, and provide greater subsidies for food and fuel. These are very important immediate steps.
Mubarak must also go on television, and state that only tear gas, and water canons should be used by the security forces against any violent demonstrators who attempt to occupy illegally or block any government buildings.
Foreign security from the USA/NATO/Israel must be excluded in attempting to control and calm the situation in Egypt. It would be stupid to ask American and Israeli security to help Mubarak at this juncture.....it will be a publicity disaster for Mubarak.
Mubarak has made a few mistakes in not anticipating the uprising organized by the USA/Israel/certain Western countries. He should have learnt from what was happening in Tunisia.
1. He should not have allowed his wife and son to "escape" to London with 100 suitcases (as alleged). The UK is the creator of the Muslim Brotherhood, and home to many Islamist groups......sought by Middle East governments from Saudi Arabia to Algeria. ON PRINCIPLE THEY SHOULD NOT HAVE GONE THERE.......Londonistan. Austria, Italy, Switzerland or Germany would have been better destinations for Mubarak's wife and son, given that such government do not have a pro-active foreign policy which includes utilizing and propagating Islamic fundamentalists in many Muslim countries.
At a practical, public relations level it looks bad if Mubarak's wife and son "escape' to the UK. This suggests that Mubarak believes his fall is eminent, and he has no faith in his future as President in Egypt. It seems like he is doing his last round of looting of the country, preparing to escape with the loot. Might I suggest both of them come back to Egypt?
2. Ditto with the elite of Egypt sections of whom have chartered private flights, and have gone to Dubai, and else where. Again psychologically this is bad, and it creates a band wagon effect. In addition financially it can't be good for Egypt. Mubarak should have used his powers to prevent them leaving the country.
3. Mubarak should not have sacked his old cabinet. The weak Shah of Iran also sacked his entire cabinet, even imprisoned his former PM, Amir-Abbas Hoveida.....as a result of USA/UK/Israel organized riots in the streets of Tehran using rent a mobs. It is not wise to throw ones closet allies to wolves at such critical times. Such action do not appease the crowd, but merely inflame them further, and encourages them further. By such action Mubarak is stating to the world that the American/Israeli rent a crowds are right and that Mubarak is in the wrong.
4. Mubarak should not have appointed a person like Omer Suleiman to the position of Vice President. Suleiman can do his job just as effectively without the title of Vice President, and perhaps better. It would have been better from a PR perspective to have appointed a moderate, conciliatory figure well liked and respected by all from the ranks of the NDP. I certainly feel that is what Mubarak should have done, and can still do. Mubarak must look tough, strong and in control, but he must also seem gracious and conciliatory.........power is not always about looking macho tough. The appointment of Suleiman will obviously be received as a negative signal given that for the last 20 years he has been interrogating and torturing Egyptians, and other Arabs for Mubarak, Israel and the USA. In this light it is hard to belief Mubarak's word that he want's reconciliation with the Egyptian people if he amasses in his new cabinet shady eyed security thugs, with very long records....working for "Kafir" countries in addition.
I am also concerned about Suleiman for other even more important reasons. Suleiman is too close to Israel, and also too close to the USA....the very countries which are subverting the Mubarak government with "rent a mobs"...and Jewish media controlled revolution (al-Jazeerah/CNN.......Al-Jazeerah is a British run operation with most of its key staff former BBC employees........The BBC which led the media revolution against the Shah of Iran in 1978/1979).
Not the whole of the USA is against Mubarak, and not the whole of Israel is against Mubarak, but powerful elements within these two states security are against Mubarak, and they would like to bring into power the Muslim Brotherhood, which must be taken seriously by Egyptian security......BUT the problem is people like Suleiman do not have the psychological capacity to see the threat from Israel or the USA.
We must reference the Iranian Revolution again, again, again to learn about current events unfolding in Egypt.
The Shah of Iran a puppet of the USA, who stayed in power through the SAVAK trained by Israel/USA was ousted by the USA/UK/France and of course Israel. To oust the Shah,... agents from the above countries were present in Tehran, and very proactive from 1977 onwards against the Shah mobilizing "rent a mobs" ....to rent a mob of 100,000 I think costs about $10 million per day in 2010 prices.......provide them with food, and other necessities, transport etc......the only people who can organize them are state agencies. Egypt can save itself a lot of problems simply by reducing significantly tourists and officials from the above countries, or generally across the board............especially NGO's from those 4 countries. Then put the remaining embassy people under greater surveillance. Finally expel the International media.
The other source of destabilization was through recruitment of the Shah's own security people by the USA/UK/France/Israel......it is believed the last head of SAVAK under the Shah, General NASSER Moghadam a trusted friend of the Shah, helped the USA with the Islamic Revolution during 1978/1979.....it is he who step by step along with the 60,000 agents of SAVAK which aided the American Islamist Revolution. Without his help the Islamists Revolution would not have taken place, and lo the mullahs after the Iranian Revolution continued using the 60,000 strong SAVAK organization, after executing a few senior officials......though its name changed to SAVAMA.
So we must be wary of Omer Suleiman the security mafia thug who is a good friend of the USA and Israel.
we must be wary of Omer Suleiman the security mafia thug who is a good friend of the USA and Israel, and now Vice President and at the center of power in Egypt.
Ruling members of the NDP must know EVERYTHING HE DOES, including meetings he has with American officials and Israelis.
Mubarak Habibi has a lot of money, as does the Egyptian state, as does anti -Islamist Socialist Libya, as does Saudi Arabia, as does Algeria.........with such resources the cadres at the NDP MUST ORGANIZE HUGE PEACEFUL COUNTER MARCHES IN CAIRO, AND RE-OCCUPY Tahrir square, with the coordinated help of the army.
The so-called thugs who beat up marchers I assume to be agent provocateurs, and not real Mubarak supporters.
Then Mubarak must show up publicly in that square with his wife...........he must visit the injured in hospital, which is his job as President, and if he really cares for the country....and state publicly that he does not support violence to regain his usual constitutional position.
He must also screen his whole security to see who is working for him, and the Egyptian state and who is working for the the American's/Israelis.