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It was Henry Kissinger in the mid--1970's who said something to the effect that it was more dangerous being a friend of the USA, than being its enemy.
Mubarak has no where to go........not to the West, and certainly not the Gulf, and the UAE. So he and his people in the military must stay put in Egypt, circle the wagons and defend their country. They must use cunning and guile to protect their motherland from subversion. They must not use unnecessary force against ordinary Egyptians which adds fuel to the fire.
As with Iran it is given that the Muslim Brotherhood as the most experienced and best organized opposition political group will eventually come to power, through this chaos.
First they will come to power under a broad coalition government. Broad power sharing coalitions do not work in Third World countries, only in a few advanced countries.
Then they will assume absolute power, as their like did in Iran in 1982, after the 1979 Revolution.
Then after that they will go after Mubarak in exile, his family, and his wealth, the Egyptian military officers and other big businessmen associated with Mubarak. This is what happened with Iran under the mullahs.
The Ikwan MB will NEVER forgive 54 years of political repression, exclusion and torture/death of its members, despite their friendly words now. They will seek vengeance, surely as the Sun rises in the East.
There after Israel will occupy the Sinai (Hamas redux) and NATO/USA the Suez.
The Egyptian military will be destroyed by the Ikwan MB, as unnecessary and costly, as the mullahs did in Iran.......where the Iranian military (Artesh) plays second fiddle to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaran). In any war it is the Revolutionary Guard which will take center stage in defending Iran.....not Iran's conventional military.
It is the Revolutionary Guard which receives the best equipment, and funding, not the conventional military.
It is the Revolutionary Guard which controls a good deal of the Iranian economy, from the media to petro-chemicals.
Under the Shah the Iranian military at least controlled all ordnance factories, and defense industries. In the early 1990's that was taken away from them and given to the........Revolutionary Guard.
So much can be learnt, and so much death and destruction can be avoided if we learn from the lessons of the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979.
So called popular revolutions in big Middle East countries, or ANY big country have consequences far beyond their borders, as has been the case with Iran since 1979.
For armchair generals and strategists in London and Washington who plan, organize and fund such revolutions it is a mere game to be manipulated and exploited through crisis management, and game theory. For them it is mere adolescent fun, where old puppets are ditched in favor of new more colorful ones.
For the target country, such artificial revolutions with banners reading catchy English slogans, written in the embassy.....such revolution means deaths, injury, dislocation, economic ruin...
