It was in 1998, when the significance of China's economic rise dawned on me. That this could easily be translated into global military power, just as the USA had when its GDP represented approximately half the worlds in PPP terms, by 1945.
I predicted to a small circle that by 2015 China would overtake the USA economy, back then. By contrast Goldman Sacks and their peer group predicted that China would overtake the American economy by 2050 around that time. After that over the years, they revised it to 2040, 2030, 2025, 2020 and now another organisation predicts China's benchmark success to be in 2016.
This process has monumental significance for the world, and the rise of China should have a more beneficial outcome for peace and stability in the world, in comparison to that of the USA, and where it is generally heading.
Back in 1998 my perception of the USA was very high (aided by Hollywood, youthful naivety, an all pervasive feature of British life, American pop music and all things American), and of China not so high......a dark, unaccountable totalitarian regimented state. I had been processed by the British education system. However 14 years have passed, and a lot has happened since then to reflect on ones views. The prediction still stands...by 2015 China will pass the USA economically, though it might be earlier in 2014, BUT the fear of China has gone. Now it is the other way.
China is developing through rational logical judgement within the Communist Peoples Politburo promoting pragmatic development programs, not for sinister design, but to make life better for the average citizen of the country. The process of modernization industrialization and urbanization is complicated, but China I am sure will succeed because of the fundamental nature of the state. The Chinese state is overwhelmingly focused on itself, keeps a low international profile and steadily delivers on ALL fronts of socio-economic development.
The USA by contrast is a pseudo-Nazi Police state, with its main talking point and focus on security, war, destabilization and terrorism. It is in the process of adding more military bases in foreign lands to add to its existing 1000 bases, and it positions and postures for more war, International drug trafficking, and occupation of foreign lands. There is very little good that comes from the American government.
I hope and wish for the sake of the world, the USA empire quickly disappears and that China takes the place of the USA empire.
However, even if China becomes number one economically by 2014, this will not be translated into outright military power to be exercised around the world, immediately. That will take at least another decade......2024. By which time China will have several aircraft carriers, and 100's of Stealth J-20 planes. Strategic naval bases around the world in Africa, Asia, South America, and maybe even in Europe. Finally an economy to back such a potential future huge military. China currently produces 650 million tons of steel and generates about 4500 billion Kwt electricity...... with PPP economy at about $12 trillion, but many experts dispute this fact and state that the true Chinese economy is over $15 trillion, whilst a considerable part of the American economy is based on debt and paper money.
The nature of the USA state by contrast is sinister, uncivilized and antagonistically aggressive towards many, unnecessarily leading to inevitable subsequent alienation (like fiat currency it means nothing). It subverts established global systems of human cooperation in order to pursue its own skewered narrow policies in the manner of a street hustler, with street hustler objectives. It is a state led by the CIA/Pentagon with Wall Street and the Federal Reserve in the background........such a state must fail sooner or later. No nation on earth flowered, prospered or redeemed itself when it allowed itself to be led by the spooks and the military.
China to overtake US economy by 2016: OECD
A leading economic organization has predicted that China’s economy will overtake that of the US by 2016, prophesizing a major shift in the balance of global economic power.
The Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasted that China’s economy would overtake the economies of the entire eurozone by the end of 2012 and it will be larger than the US economy by 2016.
By 2025, the combined GDP of China and India will outgrow that of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US and Canada put together, the OECD said.
“It is quite a shift in the balance of economic power we are going to see in the future,” said Asa Johansson, a senior economist at the OECD.
The organization of 34 countries forecasted that the global imbalances that led to the global economic crisis in 2007 will intensify and reach pre-crisis levels by 2030.
The OECD warned that the escalating imbalances could undermine the global economic growth and noted that the situation cannot be ameliorated unless countries embark on more ambitious reforms with respect to labor and production.