21.10.12

Turkey at a cross road

.
.
.
.
The situation in Turkey is critical. The AKP party which had previously followed a very pragmatic 'zero problem' with neighbors foreign policy has since 2011, in its own judgment decided to reward and publicly back "al-CIA-duh" regimes in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and most critically, which has consequences for itself as a country and neighbor, "al-CIA-duh" in Syria. 

The reason for this improbability is not clear, but various reasons have been offered in the alternative media:

1. That the AKP is a CIA/State Department controlled party, and the AKP under Erdogan is merely following the masters wishes in regime change in Damascus which will usher in "al-CIA-duh" through violent insurrection, and use of foreign (95%) non-Syrian Islamists....in that theater illegally, with further colorful consequences for the country and region.

2. Modern Turkey is still controlled by the Domestic and International Jews, with its population of 30,000 officially registered Jews, and 500,000--1,000,000 "Doenme" Secret Jews. The possibility that Erdogan himself might be a Deonme Jew. That the most richest men in Turkey maybe are Deonme Jews....Koc and Sabanci family...with their traditional JEW businesses of Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE)...with a backdrop of a highly unstable economy, through speculation. These people attend Globalist/Eurocentric/Occidental (Oxymoron) organizations such as the Bilderberg group where they receive their ORDERS for Turkey. The AKP have built up the Turkish economy through such Jew "Industries"...which will have severe consequences for the country shortly.

3. Turkey is a close ally of Israel. Israeli extreme right-wingers published (From wikipedia) A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm (commonly known as the "Clean Break" report) is a policy document that was prepared in 1996 by a study group led by Richard Perle for Benjamin Netanyahu, the then Prime Minister of Israel.Israel's security problems in the Middle EastAccording to the report's preamble, it was written by the Study Group on a New Israeli Strategy Toward 2000, which was a part of the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies. Former United States Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Perle was the "Study Group Leader", but the final report included ideas from James Colbert, Charles Fairbanks, Jr., Robert Loewenberg, Douglas Feith, David Wurmser, and Meyrav Wurmser. The report explained a new approach to solving with an emphasis on "Western values". It has since been criticized for advocating an aggressive new policy including the removal of Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq.

The introduction states: 

(i). Rather than pursuing a "comprehensive peace" with the entire Arab world, Israel should work jointly with Jordan and Turkey to "contain, destabilize, and roll-back" those entities that are threats to all three.

"Securing the Northern Border"
"Syria challenges Israel on Lebanese soil. An effective approach, and one with which American can sympathize, would be if Israel seized the strategic initiative along its northern borders by engaging Hizballah, Syria, and Iran, as the principal agents of aggression in Lebanon, including by: ---striking Syria’s drug-money and counterfeiting infrastructure in Lebanon, all of which focuses on Razi Qanan. ---paralleling Syria’s behavior by establishing the precedent that Syrian territory is not immune to attacks emanating from Lebanon by Israeli proxy forces.... "
"Israel also can take this opportunity to remind the world of the nature of the Syrian regime. Syria repeatedly breaks its word. It violated numerous agreements with the Turks, and has betrayed the United States by continuing to occupy Lebanon in violation of the Taef agreement in 1989. Instead, Syria staged a sham election, installed a quisling regime, and forced Lebanon to sign a "Brotherhood Agreement" in 1991, that terminated Lebanese sovereignty. And Syria has begun colonizing Lebanon with hundreds of thousands of Syrians, while killing tens of thousands of its own citizens at a time, as it did in only three days in 1983 in Hama....Given the nature of the regime in Damascus, it is both natural and moral that Israel abandon the slogan comprehensive peace and move to contain Syria, drawing attention to its weapons of mass destruction programs, and rejecting land for peace deals on the Golan Heights."
"Moving to a Traditional Balance of Power Strategy"
"Israel can shape its strategic environment, in cooperation with Turkey and Jordan, by weakening, containing, and even rolling back Syria. This effort can focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq — an important Israeli strategic objective in its own right — as a means of foiling Syria’s regional ambitions."
"Since Iraq's future could affect the strategic balance in the Middle East profoundly, it would be understandable that Israel has an interest in supporting the Hashemites in their efforts to redefine Iraq,including such measures as: visiting Jordan as the first official state visit, even before a visit to the United States, of the new Netanyahu government; supporting King Hussein by providing him with some tangible security measures to protect his regime against Syrian subversion; encouraging — through influence in the U.S. business community — investment in Jordan to structurally shift Jordan’s economy away from dependence on Iraq; and diverting Syria’s attention by using Lebanese opposition elements to destabilize Syrian control of Lebanon. .. Were the Hashemites to control Iraq, they could use their influence over Najf to help Israel wean the south Lebanese Shia away from Hizballah, Iran, and Syria. Shia retain strong ties to the Hashemites: the Shia venerate foremost the Prophet’s family, the direct descendants of which — and in whose veins the blood of the Prophet flows — is King Hussein

To summarize point 3 ......Turkey is merely being a good Ibne dog of Israel, against Syria....without due regard for its own interests, because of the over-arching influence of the Jews within Turkey. 

4. Finally that the AKP party is in reality a true Islamist party with suits and tie. Its recent purging of the secularist Kemalist military and secular critical journalists alludes to this secret fact. Its support for "al-CIA-duh" in the Middle East, and especially in Syria, is merely a prelude to the AKP's own unmasking of itself as a fully fledged Islamist Party...which is guided by the CIA/State Department and Israel.

But for the rest of us TURKEY is a great country with GREAT people who deserve better. 

We understand cunning guile and plots within International/national entities can subvert the best of countries....as it did Germany between 1933--1945, which resulted in the death of 10 million German people, the division of the country, the humiliation of the country, the destruction of the country, and the added future costs with guilt to the country for the crimes committed by a few well organized International Jewish entities within Germany, the USA and London......with the added burden and costs to the rest of the world.

We want Turkey to do well, NOT destroy itself in the noble service of International Jews.

Here are a few points made by a Jewish American writer which highlight the weakness of Turkish society....which require urgent attention and redressing, soon.

This clearly is not rocket science mixed with astro-meta physics. The structural problems of Turkey are well known within Turkey, BUT merely require a nationalist government which will seriously address the problems using  judiciously the full resources of the state.......without the need to rely on International globalist Jewish organizations. 

_______________________

by David P. Goldman
Middle East Quarterly........

Turkey’s high-flying economy, which expanded at a 10 percent annual rate of gross domestic product growth during the first half of 2011, will collapse SOON. 

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s “economic miracle,” to use the Daily Telegraph‘s admiring words, depended on a 40 percent annual rate of bank credit expansion, which in turn produced a balance of payments deficit as wide as that of southern Europe’s crisis countries. 

2012 approximate projections

Exports: $140 billion

Imports: $250 billion

Turkeys external debt: $330 billion


Markets have already anticipated a sudden turnaround in the Turkish economy. 

The Turkish lira (TRY) fell by a quarter between November 2010 and September 2011, making it the world’s worst performing emerging market currency. 

The stock market has fallen in dollar terms by 40 percent, making Turkey the worst performer after Egypt among all the markets in the MSCI Tradable Index during 2011. (See Graph 1 for Turkey vs. emerging markets.) 

And most analysts now expect that the cyclical slowdown will uncover deep deficiencies in Turkey’s labor force and infrastructure, leading to a prolonged structural slump rather than a passing recession.

The writer speculates the political consequences .......

The suddenness and size of this economic setback will in most likelihood erode the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) capacity to govern on the strength of pragmatic success rather than Islamist ideology; will undercut its ability to use economic incentives to defuse Kurdish separatism and contain domestic opposition; and will weaken Ankara’s claim to a leading regional role.

Graph 1: Turkish Stock Market vs. Emerging Market Index, Dec. 2010-Sept. 2011




Source: MSCI
 

Turkey’s predicament follows a well-known pattern of Third World economic crises driven by external imbalances. 

The impetus behind the country’s recent economic growth has been a stunning rate of credit expansion, which reached 30 percent for households and 40 percent for business in 2011. By contrast, inflation-adjusted consumer credit growth in the United States from 1984 to 2008 peaked at just 12 percent in 1995.

The banks aligned with the AKP, that is, the four Shari’a-compliant banks (or participation banks), have increased their consumer loans at a much faster rate than the conventional banks. In the year through September 16, 2011, consumer loans by the Islamic banks rose by 53 percent, according to the Central Bank’s data base, compared to 36 percent for commercial banks. The Islamic banks have lent TRY 5 billion to consumers, about a quarter as much as the commercial banks.

In the past two years, the ratio of debt to disposable income in Turkish households rose from 35 percent to 45 percent. This growing demand was far in excess of what domestic output could satisfy. Graph 2 shows that the current account deficit widened accordingly as credit demand rose and the marginal dollar of consumer demand went to imports rather than domestic purchases.

Graph 2: Total Credit Growth vs. Current Account Deficit, 2006 to Present




A Deeper Malaise

Turkey faces not only a sharp reversal of economic fortunes in the short term but also formidable obstacles to recovery in the medium term. 

The country has no natural resources with which to emulate Brazil or Russia and lacks the human capital to compete with emerging Asia. 

(Negative/too pessimistic......Turkey has resources within its landmass which have not been exploited fully yet, such as chromium, iron ore, lignite and Thorium...and in the sea oil and gas. Turkey can also be a successful resource-less country like Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. Many LEDC countries are resources rich, but they also have corrupt USA backed governments..IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN with trillions worth of minerals, but also FAILED STATES, with extreme levels of corruption)

Although its universities train some excellent engineers and managers, the population as a whole is poorly educated in comparison with other middle-upper income countries. Only 26 percent of Turkish children graduate secondary school, compared to 44 percent in Mexico, 64 percent in Portugal, and 83 percent in Poland.

Low-value added products (textiles, apparel, furniture, appliances, autos) dominate its export profile. Turkish industry has never succeeded in any field of high technology.

Despite Anatolian success in medium-tech industries such as textiles and food processing, the deep backwardness of the Turkish hinterland remains a difficult hurdle. 

Traditional prejudice still prevents most Turkish women from working outside the home despite advancements in female education and a decline in fertility. Turkish women have lost ground in economic life: Only 22 percent sought employment in 2009, down from more than 34 percent in 1988. In contrast, 54 percent of South Korean women work. As smallholding agriculture shrinks, women who no longer can work on the family farm simply sit at home. The collapse in the female labor force participation rate is a striking gauge of the country’s failure to modernize. 

Turkey’s official unemployment rate stands at around 10 percent; adjusted for the underemployment of Turkish women, the unemployment rate would be above 25 percent. Roughly 43 percent of Turkish employment is off the books, compared to a developed-country average of 18 percent.

Turkey’s longer-term risks are even more daunting. 

A developing country cannot sustain a fertility rate that leads to a rapid increase in elderly dependents, yet the fertility rate of Turks for whom Turkish is a first language has been in steady decline over the past fifteen years, falling to only 1.5—equal to that of Europe—while its population is aging almost as fast as Iran’s, leaving the country’s social security system with a deficit of close to 5 percent of GDP. “If we continue the existing [fertility] trend, 2038 will mark disaster for us,” Erdoğan warned in a May 2010 speech.

Erdoğan is right: Should the trend continue, the Turkish economy will collapse under the strain of caring for its dependent elderly while the country’s young people will be concentrated in the Kurdish minority, fueling demands for independence from the hard hand of the Turkish state. 

But Erdoğan’s predicament is, of course, far more immediate. His government’s reluctance to encourage greater savings at home does not bode well for Turkey’s future. “This heavy reliance on external savings exposes Turkey to shocks,” notes Standard and Poor’s, “either domestic (for example if Turkey’s recent high domestic credit growth resulted in future bad loans) or external (say, if rising risk aversion were to prompt foreign investors and bank credit officers to reduce exposure to Turkish entities).”

According to Murat Üçer, the question is whether “Turkey can manage a soft landing or whether there’ll be a correction because of external factors, which could be very ugly indeed.”

If the prime minister and the AKP respond to the coming economic crisis by pushing Turkey further in the direction of Islamism, the consequences for the country’s economy could be grave in the extreme. According to Bilgi University professor Asaf Savas Akat, a Turkish television commentator and long-time official of the secular Social Democratic Party,
It’s important to keep in mind that Turkey is a resource-poor country … We rely on the confidence of financial markets. … If Turkey goes in the Iranian direction, the financial markets will shut us out. The middle class will ship their money overseas, and many of them will move overseas, like Iran’s middle class did after Khomeini’s revolution. The country will collapse.
YES, the Jew makes a good point.....In Iran 5 million educated Iranians left the country taking with them $1.5 trillion worth of assets, encouraged it seems by the mullahs to foster a largely illiterate population which for them would be easier to manage......and control.

Implications

As Erdoğan’s economic miracle evaporates, his ability to govern will diminish. 

On the eve of the June 2011 national elections, Turks were “almost evenly divided about the current direction of their country” according to a Pew Research Center survey. 

Views about the economy were split down the middle with 49 percent saying that the economic situation was good, and 48 percent saying that it was bad, a meager result after two quarters of blistering GDP growth. 

A sharp religious divide characterizes sentiment about the overall direction of the country: 67 percent of those who “pray rarely” are “dissatisfied” while 64 percent of those who pray five times a day are “satisfied.”

The country’s economic performance evidently tips the balance in favor of the AKP.

AKP Islamists face entrenched and embittered opposition after three years of mass arrests of political opponents, journalists, and military officers on flimsy charges of coup plotting. 

While the silent majority of Turks acquiesced in this abuse so long as the economy was booming, this is likely to change in the wake of a major economic reverse, which will in turn undercut Erdoğan’s efforts to project Turkish power abroad. 

 “Turkey looks to punch above its weight,” the London Financial Times recently commented.

The trouble is that it is also punching above its strength.

______________________________

The Jew writer gloats at Turkeys Jew imposed problems, the so called second best friend of ISRAEL.

The copy paste of the Jew article by me does not have that intention.

We want Turkey to succeed just like all states in the world.

Turkey should detach itself from the International Jew network.

Turkey should have governments that work solely for itself.

Turkey should not facilitate "al-CIA-duh" in the Greater Middle East, and do harm to its peaceful neighbors.....this would have been the wish of Deonme secular Attaturk.