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I wish I could be that smug. It's a bit like one of Stalin's advisers telling him that Hitler's rise to power posed no threat to the Soviet Union, or France, or Holland............ An Afghanistan under the Taliban was bad enough, presumably that is why India, Iran and Russia actively opposed it through the Northern Alliance...............and the USA eventually invaded the country. A Pakistan run by the Taliban will be far more worse for all, and especially for India, as unlike Afghanistan, Pakistan is a direct neighbor of India.
If Pakistan goes Taliban through the Mir Jafars in the Pakistan army, then there is every chance of the country being occupied by foreign forces, and we have a replay of the East India Company scenario, except this time around its from the other side........and that is not good for South Asia generally, SUMJE Kapila Sahib........its not good for ALL of us, Pakistanis, Indians, Bangladeshis, Sri Lankan's, Nepalis and Afghans of course.
The Taliban are a fifth column of imperialist forces out to destabilize and occupy Pakistan..........in that sense the Taliban pose a threat to all South Asia.......remember LeT, and HuJi, and their operations in parts of India, especially Kashmir, where 500,000 Indian security personnel are pinned down, against a few irregulars.
Now use your imagination, and think what the Taliban could do if they take over the whole of Pakistan, and use the resources of the whole Pakistani state against India, and the 160 million Muslims in India.
I say let us fight and destroy the Taliban in Pakistan, before they take over. Fighting means backing civilian Pakistani governments who can stand up to the Mir Jafar top brass of the Pakistani army.
Fighting the Taliban means signing FTA agreements with Pakistan, and legalizing the LoC.
Fighting the Taliban means making Pakistan a success story, because lets face it the vast majority of Pakistanis, maybe even 99% of Pakistanis don't want the Taliban and their primitive medieval ways. Remember Kapila Sahib that the biggest political party in the NWFP is not the Taliban but the Awami League (ANP), a left of center party........so.
Let us not derive cheap schadenfreude pleasure in the knowledge that Pakistan must surely fail further as a state under a Taliban Emirate.........................because a Taliban Pakistan can create many problems for India, as has been shown by certain acts of their affiliates on Indian soil, thus far.
__________________________________________
PAKISTAN’S TALIBANIZATION IS NO STRATEGIC THREAT TO INDIA
By Dr. Subhash Kapila
Introductory Observations
Pakistan’s Talibanization is inevitable and should not have come as a strategic surprise to discerning strategic analysts. Pakistan’s Talibanization has been inevitable due to acts of complicity and commission by the Pakistan Army military hierarchy and the permissive toleration by the United States of Pakistan Army’s strategic delinquencies in this direction for over a decade now.
(Your crystal ball is better than mine presumably, but I never thought it was inevitable if the majority of Pakistanis don't want the Taliban, especially the urban people, and Pakistan does not become like Afghanistan (it hasn't) and the Pakistani military can be forced to see sense ( a challenge for the future), by a strong civilian government which runs the country (possibility under Sharif)------the Taliban is the creation of the Pakistan military with full American backing and these types of organizations were backed/created by the Pak military/Americans/UK from the 1970's, NOT as you say a mere decade or so ago, "Operation Cyclone" "Operation Greenbelt".............Bernard Lewis.."Arc of Crisis"...Zbigniew Brzezinski etc........as you surely know where it all originates from)
The Pakistan Army created, nurtured and continues to sustain the Taliban along with Al Qaeda as a “strategic asset” to be used both against the United States and Afghanistan on its Western flanks and against India on its Eastern flanks with more specific reference to Kashmir. These entities were the instruments of proxy war in the Pakistan Army’s armory against India along with other Jehadist organizations like the Laskar-e-Toiba created by the Pakistan Army.
(Yes and no. Yes the Taliban and "al-Qaeda" are run by the Pakistan military, but as you say whilst contradicting yourself here, with the full knowledge of the USA, UK and lets not forget little Israel.....to create problems for India amongst many other objectives related to South Asia, Central Asia, The Greater Middle East and globally, so that India can run to America and say how naughty the Pakistanis are, and how well behaved India is.............and Gulf finance, don't forget that..........in that sense the Pakistani military are not using "al-Qaeda" against the Americans, but "al-Qaeda" is a useful cover story when acts of terrorism takes place in the Middle East, East Africa, Europe and North America by Israel and their friends..............the Pakistan military, through "al-Qaeda" provides the cover story for the West and the various terrorist acts of Israel)
India more specifically has from 1989 till today has been incessantly battling Pakistan Army’s instruments of proxy war to begin with in the Kashmir Valley and now extending to the whole expanse of India in terms of terrorism, suicide bombings and sabotage.
About 8,000 Jehadis were also transported by Pakistan from Afghanistan, through the services of Mullah Iran into Croatia, and then into Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990's, with the full knowledge,consent and cooperation of the Zionist Jewish run Clinton administration.
(Yes, the "Jihad" against the Soviets had ended in 1989, and the Pakistani military had a surplus manpower of Jihadis on their hands. What do we do? I know why don't we use them against India...........and so)
India over such a long period of time successfully contained Pakistani proxy war laced with Islamic Jehadi contours and did not succumb to this Pakistani menace. This despite the regrettable strategic meekness and timidity of successive Indian governments of different political dispensations in India’s counter-terrorism responses. This also despite the susceptibility of each Indian Government to succumb to external pressures advising restraint against Pakistan.
(What more could the Indian governments have done? airstrikes? Pakistan was a nuclear power by 1988, or earlier and I assume the Indian government knew this fact.......India has been very successful in containing the Khalistan problem with bases in Pakistan (you now have a Sikh PM), and the Kashmir problem with bases in Pakistan again---the majority of Kashmiris want to live as part of India, and they have democratically elected popular governments------this is a VICTORY for India, in the civilian holistic long term sense.
From the perspectives of a security analyst maybe not, and your benchmark of success is a little different from the civilian politicians.....maybe you fancy a airstrike or two, or punitive incursions against insurgency bases? To teach the Pakistanis what for. However India is not Israel/America............once you start these things how, and when do you stop them in your terms, successfully and guaranteed? Very Difficult, with the shape the Indian military is in.
Then there is the little matter of the Indian military who were not ready for war, or any type of action against Pakistan, which was conveyed to the government after 26/11. 40 odd ordnance factories producing sub standard equipment and ammo, and a military seriously deficient in spares, with reliance on the good will of foreign suppliers.....Russia mainly........a joke, sad joke............India needs to sort this area out before India goes macho and proactive, but I doubt that will ever happen with the current batch of politicians. )
The Indian Armed Forces have stood their ground all along against Pakistan’s state-sponsored proxy wars and there is no reason to doubt that the Indian Armed Forces would be inadequate in dealing with any renewed or reinvigorated military threats from a “Talibanized Pakistan” in the form of nuclear, conventional or asymmetric warfare.
(That's what they are paid and trained for...............though if it all goes totally asymmetrical, then maybe better coordination and cooperation between the various security agencies inside India, and not just the military. We need investment in this area, and greater focus.....incidentally a Talibanized Pakistan with nukes won't happen, the Americans will intervene before that happens so your whole scenario whilst pandering to alarmism, is false, the AMERICANS WILL INTERVENE, if the Taliban try to capture Pakistan's nukes..............on the one hand what we are seeing with the Swat Deal is possibly a dangerous game by the Pak military in attempting to extract more aid from America, "If you don't give us more aid, our failed state will fall into the hands of the TALIBAN" or the "Talibanization" is being done with American approval by the Pakistan military, as Mir Jafars of America.......with either scenario the Pakistan top military brass look like bad ill fated treacherous bastards.)
A Talibanized Pakistan should be considered of no more “strategic concern” than an adversarial Pakistan which in the last sixty two years initiated four major wars against India and incessant irregular warfare without any results.
(I think the idea is that even with the Pakistan military in charge you had men who understood what were international norms to a certain extent, even if they didn't follow them a lot of the times. Further that such Pak military men could be pressured through diplomatic channels, and subsequently controlled in terms of going beyond the norms......up to a point. With the Taliban there is no such thing as international norms......they simply did not listen to the directives of the Pakistan government in 2001, which subsequently led to the invasion of Afghanistan.......it is this inflexible religiously dogmatic attitude which is of greatest concern about the Taliban, AND why they must not be allowed into power in Pakistan)
The Indian media has gone beserk in sensationalizing and raising the bogey of Pakistan’s Talibanization as some sort of insurmountable military threat to India. Some project it as “Barbarians bat the Gates” and while others project the “Unstoppable Taliban” as being only an hours drive or so from Indian borders.
(On the one hand the Pakistan Taliban is not a real military force to be reckoned with; 5,000--10,000 lightly armed with AK-47 and RPG's { with not a great track record of military success so far, or any budding Ho Chi Min's within their ranks....which is all good I say} verses unofficially 800,000 Pakistan military, with 300,000 paramilitary. The idea that the Pakistan Taliban can over run the huge Pakistani military machine is simply impossible, impossible (1,100,000 PAK MILITARY MACHINE VERSES 5,000--10,000 Pakistan Taliban), unless the Americans attempt to destabilize Pakistan for Israel, through the Mir Jafar top brass of the Pakistani military, many of whom are "trained" in the USA.
On the other hand if the Pakistani top brass are seriously entertaining a Taliban state in Pakistan because it fits their dogmatic beliefs (Lets say Kiyani and Suja Pasha are closet Deobandi fundies), or because America wants Pakistan destroyed for Israel, with its nukes, then that should be of concern for ALL Indians, and ALL South Asians)
At times one gets a sneaking feeling that this Indian media hysteria on the Talibanization of Pakistan is externally inspired to induce in the Indian policy establishment and in Indian public opinion, pressures for an Indian policy orientation that would incorporate a fixation that India at any cost must contribute to stemming the tide of Pakistan’s Talibanization.
(Well you must know Kapil Sahib that sections of your media are foreign controlled, you are after all a security expert.......I would have thought Bollywood is the biggest player in scaring the children about the dreaded fundie at India's gate.....and sections of the Anglophone media, with fixations with Hollywood, and Western lifestyles etc................the well staged, American like hysteria after 26/11...........except for the Indian faces and accents, the aggressive jingoistic shrill rant talking points after 26/11 were pure American imports)
The point already stands made that the creation of Taliban was fathered by the Pakistan Army and its delivery midwifed by the United States. If the Taliban in its contemporary manifestations today poses a strategic threat to Pakistan and the United States, then the Taliban threat has to be met strategically and militarily by Pakistan and the United States.
(Unless the Pakistan military with the USA have other ideas)
India never ever figured anywhere in the process of the emergence of the Taliban and nor has India assisted in the Talibanization of Pakistan India therefore has no moral or strategic compulsions to stem the Taliban tide.
(At the end of the day when all is said and done it is the Pakistanis who must deal with the Taliban in Pakistan, and that means ordinary Pakistanis civilians who truly love their country must find the courage to face up to their military, and overcome their naive overly romantic views of them. If you do not fully understand how the Pakistani military operates and thinks, as a Pakistani, then the Taliban problem can never be resolved in Pakistan. India can only help and support these good people in Pakistan without it being too overt, lest they are charged with interference.)
Having made the statement of the case, this Paper now attempts to marshal facts and perspectives as follows to dispel the hysterical proportions imparted by the Indian media and some policy analysts on the creeping Talibanization of Pakistan under way:
- Pakistan and the Taliban: A Brief Reality Check
- Pakistan’s Talibanization Facilitated by Pakistan Army Ceding Strategic Space by its Withdrawals from Frontier Regions
- Impeding Talibanization of Pakistan: Factors That Can Come Into Play
- Talibanized Pakistan: Strategic and Military Contours
- Talibanized Pakistan: A Strategic Window of Opportunity for India
Pakistan and the Taliban: A Brief Reality Check
Innumerable books and analyses by Western and noted Pakistani analysts exist on the Taliban and their disruptive roles in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This Paper sets out a reality check incorporating salient facets which reinforce the statement of case made in this Paper and those which assist in the understanding of the perspectives offered. (The mainstream books are mostly bullshit propaganda)
Essentially therefore, this reality check would incorporate the following:
- The Taliban was a Pakistan Army creation executed under the orders of Benazir Bhutto Prime Minister of Pakistan in mid 1990s.(selective false limited narrative of the whole episode.........The Pakistani military essentially takes its orders/ideas from the USA/UK......two countries with which the top Pakistani brass have close linkages with (officer to officer/training in the USA/UK in addition), and where they are propagated through various means----through sexual favors, Ayub Khan/Christine Keeler, young prostitutes............etc, through money of course, brown envelopes filled with wads of cash, and finally special business privileges and arrangements e.g a cut of the narcotics trade.....essentially sections of the corrupt criminal Western elite co-opt them as one of their "own" through various means........until they lose their usefulness, and then they are dropped......Ayub Khan 1968/69; Zia ul Haq 1988 ; Busharaf 2007/8....and so on......So Kapila Sahib the idea of the Taliban did not come from the Pakistan military, but more likely from the USA, to use as a tool for American geo-strategy in South Asia, and specifcally Afghanistan.
- Lets put it another way..........since 1947, the Pakistan military, and ISI created by the UK (1948), is essentially an instrument of the USA/UK in the Greater Middle East, and South Asia....that is why you have Pakistani officers serving in Jordan suppressing the Palestinian uprising of 1970 (Brigadier Zia ul Haq, where he obviously proved his worth) why Pakistani troops are stationed in various Gulf countries; why the Pakistani army is the biggest contributor to the UN; Why the Pakistani army involves itself in Bangladesh, and various parts of India, and especially Kashmir, without a care and apology to the world......such extensive operations around the globe does not come from the mere genius and bravado of a few pint sized chamars from the Punjab, but the reassuring backing of the USA/UK............The USA since 2001 has poured $ billions of security aid into Pakistan, maybe unofficially closer to $9--10 billion, not your big item numbers like jet fighters, planes, warships but all the other essential stuff that make a modern military powerful............India gets nothing from the USA military equipment wise.(since 1954 the USA has poured in possibly $40 billion worth of military aid into Pakistan, which then subsequently used against India)
- So lets rephrase what you said: America under the Jewish dominated Clinton administration approached the Bhutto regime in 1994 (and by default the Pakistan military) and advised them that Pakistan could gain "strategic depth" viz India presumably, if they recruited Islamic fundamentalist students from the Madrassas in Pakistan(Talib), train them, arm them, logistics, finance them, provided personnel from the Pakistan military........it would be good for Pakistan, and America would be happy with bringing stability to the region, and maybe business could be entertained with a stabilized Afghanistan...pipelines for oil and gas etc........Bhutto against her better judgment consented, and of course the Pakistan military were all too happy to replay an extended renewed version of "Operation Cyclone" and "Operation Greenbelt", from the late 1970's and early eighties, as an extension of the "Arc of Crisis" policy formulated by Bernard Lewis, and later his British backed protege, Brzezinski......." The Grand Chessboard")
- Essentially if you do not identify who are the real actors, and where all this originally came from with their hidden agenda's, then you will never be able to deal with the problem Mr. Kapila, because many years later you will still be complaining about the dastardly Pakistani military)
- Pakistan Army used the Taliban as an instrument of military subjugation of Afghanistan. Pakistan Army Officers, ISI officers and Pakistan Army regulars were used to stiffen Taliban cadres for operational purposes.(Yes, and very shameful.......trying to impose a medieval society in Afghanistan which might have implications for Pakistan)
- Talibanized Afghanistan was used by the Pakistan Army and ISI to set up “Islamic Jehadi factories” to tram cadres for global Islamic Jehad. Both the Taliban and the Al Qaeda were co-opted and exploited for this purpose. The horrific 9/11 assaults on USA homeland were the end results.(This is in light of what I have said above grossly incorrect........The Pakistani military operates as an annex of American/UK geostrategy in Western Asia, Central Asia and of course South Asia........."al-Qaeda" doesn't exist but is a phantom front of Israeli and Western intelligence, it covers and justifies their work, and finally 9/11 was an inside job with Israel directing it)
- Post 9/11 the United States launched its military intervention to displace the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and destroy terrorist infrastructure. Pakistan Army played no part to assist the United States.( Again inaccurate Kapila Sahib. The Pakistanis withdrew their military personnel from the Taliban in 2001, yes OK in mid flow through the war, remember the Kunduz airlift? Bush sent Blair to Pakistan as his gofer to persuade Busharaf, and also threats from Richard Armitage..."We will ...." but essentially Busharaf cooperated. In addition Pakistan opened up its military facilities to the Americans in 2001.)
- Pakistan Army regime undo General Musharraf overnight switched sides and agreed to assist US global war on terrorism.(We know why!!!!)
- Surprisingly and regrettably for reasons undefined the United States assisted the Pakistan Army to withdraw nearly 12,000 Pakistan Army personnel and Taliban cadres from Konduz in Afghanistan by a US airlift.
(Only a surprise to you Kapila sahib if the Taliban are seen as a real enemy of the USA, which it is not, as explained above, just. From the American geostrategic perspective you don't want ALL the Taliban wiped out in 2001, so you let most of them escape into Pakistan..........which gives you the "casus belli" to stay in Afghanistan indefinitely fighting a fake war with a phantom organization such as "al-Qaeda" and a "controlled opposition" through the Pakistan military, the Taliban..........fighting ceaseless minimal loss low intensity war......and in the mean time you consolidate your hold over Afghanistan, propagate the Opium business...and so forth....So no surprise that the Americans in the middle of their Afghan war, in 2001, airlifted large numbers of "al-Qaeda" Taliban, Uzbek Islamists, and of course Pakistan military personnel from Kunduz to Pakistan into safety; so they could fight another day)- Following the establishment of the US sponsored democratic regime in Kabul, Pakistan Army has “double-timed” the United States by continued de-stabilization of Southern Afghanistan through a revived Taliban enjoyed safe havens in Pakistan’s border regions.(Afghanistan is a democracy!?????????????......its failed narco state, where narco warlords...rule the roost, and where they don't the "controlled opposition" Taliban, or the foreign occupation forces. The rest of what you say is rather basic repetitions of allegations against Pakistan that one finds in most of the Western media, BUT does not reveal to us the real intricacies of the relationship between the Pakistan military, the USA/UK and how the Taliban operates in that region with its open alternative HQ at Quetta, Baluchistan just a few miles away from the American bases in Pakistan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "controlled opposition")
Notably, the United States and NATO Forces have not been able to neutralize the revived Taliban threat due to Pakistan’s Army’s complicity with the Taliban in providing safe havens for them in Pakistan.
(wrong analysis...........the Afghan Taliban have not revived, its the remnants, 40,000 in 2001, and about 8,000 now; this is not a revival)
Since the Pakistan Army is a “blind spot” of United States policy establishment and strategic community, the United States has even under the new US Administration, unable to come to grips with the simple strategic reality that for stabilization of both Afghanistan and Pakistan the United States needs to “discipline” Pakistan Army’s strategic delinquencies and its continuing dancing in cohorts with the Taliban in direct detriment of US national security interests.
(Awoof Kapila Sahib! The simple innocent Americans being tricked again by those wily devious greasy chamars from the Pakistan Punjab, who don't know how to play cricket like proper gentlemen!!!!!!! Look at the full spectrum of the secret history of American/Pakistan relations over 50 years, and perhaps then you might want to rewrite the above point)
Pakistan’s Talibanization Facilitated by Pakistan Army Ceding Strategic Space by its Withdrawals, from Frontier Regions
Pakistan’s creeping Talibanization raises one very significant question and that is as to how the Taliban have made headway in Pakistan when the Pakistan Army has had no strategic distractions on its Eastern borders for the last four to five years. In 2004 under US pressure the Pakistan Army had a ceasefire agreement in operation with India along the LOC. This ceasefire was unilaterally broken in mid-2008 by the Pakistan Army under its present Chief of Army Staff.,General Kayani. This after firing strategic broadsides at the United States that he would neither train nor regroup the Pakistan Army for operations on the Pak-Afghan frontier and that the Pakistan Army would concentrate on its primary mission against its main threat i.e. India. Vacating the western frontiers by the Pakistan Army on the plea of an Indian threat was only a fig-leaf cover for Pakistan Army’s real design of allowing the resulting vacuum to be filled in by various Taliban militias to the detriment of US national security interests.
(I am not aware of this---------the Indian MSM have not picked up on this significant development, if true. Can you provide more information that Kiyani, the quiet unassuming new head of the Pakistan military has been shifting significant army formations Eastwards against India, which has allowed the Pakistan Taliban to gain territory in the NWFP? Which divisions and corps groups? Under which commanders? Zardari has nothing to say about this significant development? The Americans have nothing to say about this? The Indian military have nothing to say about this? The Indian politicians have nothing to say about this? If as you say, and I concur, that the Pakistan Taliban are "controlled opposition" then would the Pakistan military be ceding territory to what is essentially their tool?...........OR are you just offering some chai khana gossip, just to fill up your column?)
Pakistan’s creeping Talibanization has occurred as the Pakistan Army started withdrawing from the frontier regions of South Waziristan, North Waziristan and now lately from the Swat Valley. The military vacuum so caused by the Pakistan Army in these areas were speedily put under the effective control of the various Taliban warlords. Pakistan’s state sovereignty ceased in those areas consequently.
(No not true again----FATA IS FATA, Waziristan has always been semi- autonomous; the Pakistani army is not relinquishing control of an area they never ventured into before America told them to; resulting in mass desertions from the army, deaths, casualties on both sides..........the Pakistan army could not sustain such a campaign against the insurgents, many of whom by the way are not Taliban, but simply local independent minded Pashtuns who like their autonomous status, and don't like to be pushed around; the Imperial British appreciated this fact; as did the Russians and so did the Pakistan army filled with Pashtuns more recently.
As to the Swat Valley "deal" the whole thing smells very fishy to me. Now that is something the Pakistan army must fight and not tolerate. Its one thing to have the FATA area go back to its original status, ie semi-autonomous, and the with drawl of parts of the Pakistani army from FATA, from 100,000 to 80,000 maybe, but it is wholly another thing to sign peace deals with the Pakistan Taliban and give them legitimacy and respect, and self rule inside sovereign Pakistan territory, on their terms......then it looks like a surrender and an open invitation for the Taliban to take more territory within Pakistan.....Peshawar? I just don't buy the idea that the 3,000 lightly armed, poorly led, poorly trained Pakistan Taliban in Swat could not be dealt with by the mighty Pakistan army, and their 12,000 troops in that area, equipped with heavy equipment..........just does not make sense strategically......I have talked about this area extensively and I'm not going to repeated all this again)
Pakistan Army’s military withdrawal from these critical areas bordering on Afghanistan raises two questions (1) Pakistan Army withdrew from these regions after their military failures in regaining control of the Taliban ensconced in these regions, or/and (2) Pakistan Army withdrew from these regions as part of a well calculated plan to cede these regions to Taliban control so that the Pakistan Army could plead a plausible deniability exit that the heightened Taliban operations against the US and NATO Forces in Afghanistan were being launched from areas not under control of the Pakistan Army.
(Maybe true. The FATA withdrawal was a result of sustaining serious casualties numbering into the numerous thousands, deaths, injuries, desertions, I believe, and the disquiet among Pahstun sections of the Pakistan army. The Pakistan army is still in FATA, maybe 80,000 down from 100,000 but aren't engaging the Pashtun's. ....so point 1 is valid in relation to FATA, I would concur.
As to point 2, thats a dodgy proposition, unless you have Remote Viewing facilities and you can read the mind of Kiyani and Shuja Pasha, and all their wily dastardly plans to out wit the Americans, NATO, India, Afghans and you and me!!!!! Just Maybe the Swat Taliban are being set up by the Pakistan military as "controlled opposition" to justify a military take over of Pakistan, would be a better bet........it certainly makes Zardari look bad where he gives tax payers money, maybe even American taxpayers money to buy peace from the Pakistan Taliban)
On both counts the United States should realize the strategic dilemma and dead-end that it has been forced into in Afghanistan by the Pakistan Army. If it is militarily ineffective against the Taliban, then the Pakistan Army cannot be expected to control and prevail the creeping Talibanization of Pakistan.
(The Americans invited themselves into Afghanistan for their specific agenda's through the false flag ops of 9/11, NOTHING to do with Pakistan, except that the American's used the Pakistanis for their ends..........for control of the Afghan OPIUM, oil transit routes; to be in striking distance of China, encircle Russia, dominate Central Asia from their Afghan bases; to create a new American empire, to get closer to the Pakistani nukes for Israel.....SUMJE?............your disingenuous use of language suggests that some how the evil genius chamars from the Pakistan Punjab tricked the helpless, noble, innocent Americans into the "quagmire" of Afghanistan.........maybe about 800 American servicemen have so far died in Afghanistan.....for the psychopath Jews who run America, this 800 loss of non-Jewish servicemen's lives is nothing, NOTHING.)
The second count seems more likely and that the Pakistan Army is complicit in the creeping Taliban spread over Pakistan’s heartland, secure in the belief that ultimately the end game of such a process would be the forcing of the United States exit from Afghanistan, thereby leaving Afghanistan once again to be retrieved under Pak control through the Taliban.
(Dangerous game of brinkmanship on the part of the Pakistan military, wouldn't you say. Suppose you create an irregular force which is reasonably big........100,000 a significant size that the Pakistan Taliban need to reach before they can swallow significant chunks of Pakistan (A country with 180 million people, and a 1,100,000 military machine opposing them theoretically ) Do you seriously think the Pakistani military top brass would allow their "controlled opposition" Taliban to grow to that size and endanger the power of the Pakistani military?...............If so then we would have to accept that the entire top brass of the Pakistan military are complete and utter idiots............NOT.......its one thing to have 40,000 Taliban in a neighboring country run by the Pakistan military, it is quite another to have a home grown Taliban in your own country, which is even bigger. The Pakistani top brass understand this..........a force of 30,000 Pakistani Taliban can suddenly become 80,000 with regular units of the army that are Pashtun switching sides per EAST PAKISTAN 1971.....EPR, Ansars etc)
The last contention above gets reinforced in that the Pakistan Army is alternately and selectively preventing Taliban reclaiming Pakistan territory, as it did last week in Bajaur.
It also defeats the argument that the Taliban is unstoppable by the Pakistan Army. It also follows that the current bogey of Talibanization of Pakistan is a myth and bogey deliberately cultivated by the Pakistan Army to pressurize the United States on the following counts (1) United States would pressurize India to yield and compromise on the Kashmir issue to accommodate US strategic sensitivities (2) Make the United States to increase military aid to Pakistan Army (3) Force the United States for massive developmental aid to Pakistan’s Taliban prone areas but actually would once again be diverted to the Pak Army.
(Points 2 and 3 yes, that would make sense.......as I have stated before)
Impeding Talibanization of Pakistan: Factors That Can Come Into Play
Pakistan’s creeping Talibanization is a product of the Pakistan Army’s well crafted blueprint. It seems to be a well calibrated process with the Pakistan Army secure in the belief that it can control the calibrated Taliban escalation.
Should for whatever reason, if the Taliban breaks out from the Pakistan Army calibrated blueprint, then three main actors come into play to impede and stop Pakistan’s Talibanization.
The three main actors that can impede Pakistan’s Talibanization are (1) The Pakistan Army (2) The United States (3) The Pakistani Public especially in Punjab.
(Nawaz Sharif Zindabad!!!!! Lawyers movement Zindabad!!!!!! Jinnah sahib zindabad!!!!!)
The Pakistan Army can be forced to impede Pakistan’s Talibanization by strong coercive pressure by the United States or by the self-preservation instincts of the Pakistan Army to refurbish its strong domestic image.
(Well there is no harm in being optimistic! The USA created the Taliban, as a fifth column destabiliser of the region through the Pakistan military, so no hope there. We've had Bush's eight years in office post 9/11, and the progress on that front? We have the same Clintonesq Democratic JUNTA in Washington now which first suggested the creation of the Taliban in 1994....so no hope there.......Jews like failed states that are shredded into little bits like the Balkans (I was wondering for years why the Jews were being so compassionate towards Bosnians, and Kosovars.....oh those agonizing years of questioning) Iraq, Sudan maybe........it gives them power over such failed states to do their various elicit business, and on top of that pour out their empathy and artificial philanthropy...............basically Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan ARE ALL FAILED NARCO-STATES UNDER JEW CONTROL........thats what real Jew freedom means, and Iraq, what can one say about the liberation of Iraq.
The Pakistani army is a lost cause. It won't reform itself. For ever since its creation it has been a Third rate copy of the British Raj army of the 1930's colonial era, and that is where it is stuck....uniforms, mannerisms and operations MO......I refer to it as the "Raj Punjab police Force"...and its "best" and "Bloodiest" and longest wars have been against its own people {it has killed more of its own people than any other army in the world-----quite a distinction}..........for that is what it was created for, and does best.........to reform itself you need a Sher Shah or the like, AND looking at the current chamars in the Pakistan army, thats never going to happen, not in a million years........they'll have their quaint Anglicized names ISI, .............SSG, COAS, PSO, CGS, CLS, AG, JAG etc, and then they are sent to the UK Sandhurst and then later the USA for the most promising officers............you haven't got a chance of getting to the top unless you go to those countries for training......and that is the basic source of the problem with the Pakistan armed forces, and for the people of Pakistan.)
The United States has two options to impede Pakistan’s Talibanization. The first has already been stated above. Should the Pakistan Army be not inclined to submit to United States demands for impeding the Talibanization of Pakistan, then the United States needs to be strategically prepared for a United States military intervention in Pakistan with the following aims (1) Elimination of Taliban and Al Qaeda from the Pakistani firmament (2) Gain control over Pakistan Army’s nuclear arsenal and (3) Pakistan Army be disciplined and purged of its Islamist ideology.
(Fantasy BS. Though that is what Israel would like long term which Kapila Sahib is spelling out for them, and is working towards.........Something that is not good for the USA....180 million people in Pakistan, including 60 million in densely packed big cities......not quite Somalia. The armed forces can be mobilised to between 1.5 million to 2 million, and in addition about 5---10 million Pakistanis have arms.......AND the Pakistanis are not exhausted like the Iraqis, Somalis or Afghans by war .......not good for India, if foreign entities try and invade Pakistan, massive refugee and other cross border problems{I have talked about this before....see earlier posts}...............not good for Pakistan.....nobody wins accept a few crazed Jews and their dreams of empire, and chopped up failed statelets that are run as narco states under their control..........Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan........and Iraq........)
The third actor to impede Pakistan’s Talibanization, and the most significant of all is the Pakistani public and more especially the Punjabis of Pakistan’s heartland and the core of the Pakistan Army. Lately in the Op-Eds and features in the Pakistani English newspapers there is evidence that the Pakistani Punjabis are not going to willingly accept the Talibanization of Punjab.
( The Punjabis of Pakistan are essentially Indic people, with some other mainly Central Asian races being present........so a lot of them converted into Islam from Hinduism, through the work of Pirs and Sufis........Indian people with Indian mannerisms.....they don't follow their Islam like the Pashtuns, with their more primitive living conditions, or Saudis with their Wahabism.........Punjabis like music, Mujra, Bollywood and all such things....so yes the Pakistan Punjab can be a serious bulwark against the Talibanisation of Pakistan, if the senior Pakistan top brass behave like brain washed retards of America, and follow policies which are detrimental long term for Pakistan........I am hopeful)
There are also indications that should the Pakistan Army be unwilling to rein- in the Taliban, then the peoples power would came into play both against the Pakistan Army and the Taliban and Al Qaeda
(Nawaz Sharif Zindabad!!! Lawyers Movement Zindabad!!!! Jinnah Zindabad!!!)
This could spell civil war in Pakistan and its possible disintegration.
It would be interesting to watch how China and Saudi Arabia react to a civil war ensuing in Pakistan enmeshed as they are in Pakistan both by bolstering the Pakistan Army and moreso, the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Colossal amounts of Saudi money has gone into financing the Taliban and China has been involved significantly in the arming of the Taliban.
(Hopefully you didn't mean China was backing the Taliban and al-Qaeda!!!!!! There is only so much you can take in one article. The Saudis role is an open secret which everybody knows about........................With the China angle I have never heard of that. There was gossip that Iran was funding the Taliban, through Chinese arms, but only gossip.......you have more substantial information on this?)
Talibanized Pakistan: Strategic and Military Contours
Remotely probable, but not a distinct possibility currently, should an entire Pakistan fully. Talibanized emerges, then its strategic and military contours need to be examined and the nature of threat that it poses to India, more specifically.
(Can't see a Taliban takeover of Pakistan, as already discussed. Obviously India first needs to think, just in case and plan, since they are likely to be more hostile and anti-Indian then any "normal" Pakistani government. 1) Which actors in Pakistan are backing the Taliban, specifically....who are the people in the Pakistan military liasing with the Pakistan Taliban; can they be highlighted into the Indian media,,specific names, rank, Pak army unit etc etc 2) How can India prevent the Taliban taking over Pakistan? What can India do internally and externally from Pakistan? Who are the strongest groups who might oppose the Taliban, and how can India covertly ally with them without it being obvious? How can India help such groups in Pakistan against the Taliban? )
It is ones strong belief that a fully Talibanized Pakistan cannot emerge without a fully Talibanized Pakistan Army. The most notable casualties in the emergence of a fully Talibanized Pakistan Army would be the disintegration of its military hierarchy, command and control structures, professional integration and professional military competence.
(Wasn't that the idea with the BDR uprising last month; Ditto Mullah Iran when in 1979 virtually the top brass were killed by the mullahs; Ditto Katyn 1939, when the Soviets executd up to 15,000 Polish officers.......an army without its officers is wholly ineffective, and totally malleable)
In terms of strategic and military contours, a fully Talibanized Pakistan could hardly pose an integrated military threat to any of its neighbors except for irregular warfare.
(Look Kapila Sahib the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan Taliban track record of fighting has not been very good thus far....which is a good thing; they aren't Hezbollah, but you understand that if they take control of Pakistan's nukes, then the idea of them taking over Pakistan is a total no no-------------are you therefore indirectly hinting that if the Americans occupy the country, because of an immenent Taliban takeover, its OK for you? It shouldn't be. Whats to say that such an occupation force will stop on India's border? Because India is a Hindu country which is friends with America?)
The major deduction here that one would like to offer is that a Talibanized Pakistan would be dominated by warring Taliban warlords more engrossed in infighting amongst themselves and possibly embroiled in a civil war or battling the major actors intent on impeding Pakistan’s Talibanization.
(More likely----there would a prolonged bloody civil war within Pakistan)
Surely, a Talibanized Pakistan is likely to give a spurt to terrorism and proxy war against India. An India fully expectant and prepared for such an eventually can certainly defeat such military adventurism as it has been done in the last 62 years against Pakistan Army adventurism.
(Yes India can, but if the Taliban hypothetically take over Pakistan the cross border insurgency will be more intense, and the Indian security will be kept more busy....so instead of 500,000 in Kashmir, and another 200,000 in the Punjab and Rajasthan, Gujarat, maybe in such an unlikely scenario India would require twice as many men, especially outside of Kashmir, and tighter security within India; better training of the police, paramilitary and so forth: 1) We should not entertain the idea that the Taliban can take over Pakistan, but should focus on how to prevent such an outcome 2) The Taliban takeover of Pakistan and its effect on India will not be so reassuring and simple to deal with as you suggest......you could get foreign anti-India entities providing, guidance and training to the Taliban)
In terms of sustaining a Talibanized Pakistan militarily, only China and Saudi-Arabia can come into play. China had a propensity of sustaining “rogue regimes” the world over.
(I am not aware of this. They backed Pol Pot in Cambodia, and his strange ideology, but other than North Korea, Pakistan, and Burma (All neighbors of China), China does not seem a proactive power globally.....so you are wrong there.
As to Saudi Arabia, yes they do throw their money around into dubious Islamic charities with extremely puritanical bent, but does all this amount to a sinister Saudi master plan to establish Wahabi enclaves around the world.........hardly! The 5,000 or so odd royal males with their soft plump easy of care lifestyle, with luxury palaces, yahts, cars and casino's, and blond long leggeds girlfrends from fashionable London, Paris and eslewhere don't seem the type who are secrectly nurturing a desire to spread puritanical Wahabi Islam.........this is the stuff of JEWUSA MSM propaganda post 9/11 and the Saudis associated with that sad event, according to ahem, ....Indian sources.
No Mr. Kapila the countries which you mean who could be "sustaining a Talibanized Pakistan militarily" are the UK, Israel and the USA, countries in the past who have ALL trained the Mujaheddin in Pakistan and in their own countries {USA/UK.........Israeli military team in Pakistan during the 1980's training the Mujaheddin and future "al-Qaeda" members}............AND all three countries have covert programs of backing fundies to destabilise Muslim and other countries (Hamas, Islamic Jihad are Israel's creation/ Muslim Brotherhood the British/Afghan mujaheddin mainly USA, with British backing, and Israeli/ Taliban American/al-Qaeda..USA/Israel/UK)......READ YOUR EFFING HISTORY.....before you make such assertions.
China would however in sustaining a Talibanized Pakistan militarily would have to contend with US and Western sanctions, displeasure and development of counter- strategic pressure points against China in Tibet and Xinjiang.
(China significantly has been helping Pakistan.....more than they should.......but this help is mainly against India, BUT NOT in relation to insurgency, but strategic help which makes the Pakistan overall security more muscular, such as rocket technology, nuclear technology, conventional arms production, and finally strategic industrial projects; infrastrucuture projects....providing easy credit and cheap terms.......this is many ways of more concern for India than backing some iregular forces with minimal investments.
Did China back the Nepali Maoists which overthrew the pro-India monarchy? What effect does that have in terms of Indian security where you have 100,000 Gurkhas serving in the Indian army and numerous Nepalis serving in private Indian security....consequences)
Talibanized Pakistan: A Strategic Window of Opportunity for India
Realistically, but not perversely, it can be asserted that a Talibanized Pakistan offers a strategic window of opportunity for India as a regional power to re-order the South Asia security environment.
(NO ! NO! NO!.............Might be true if India were a super efficient, well managed security state where you had an effective government which knows what its doing, backed by an effective bureaucracy and security aparatus, but the reality is..........even with the more competent, less corrupt BJP you are never going to get this.....SO NO, a Talibanized Pakistan offers no strategic window for India, but merely more problems, which India invariably reacts to clumsily........like Sri Lanka, Maoist Nepal.....dare I say it, Pakistan even now.
A Talibanized Pakistan creates more problems for Inda, and given the fact that the level of governance and security in India is already poor, then in that reality India does not need Pakistan going Taliban.
The only window of oppertunity for India is if she just plodded, and plodded, and plodded along the present trajectory, and raised the general living conditions of all Indians, making the country more modern and successful so that more countries take a shine to India and her success, and all Indians are sincerely happy and proud to be part of a modern succesful and increasingly prosperous India.....and that is it, without being too smart without any clever plans....
Though I can appreciate why as a Indian security expert who worked for RAW???? you might relish such an eventuality.
BUT for the rest of us, in South Asia not involved in the security industry, we don't need Pakistan going Taliban)
Pakistan with direct and active strategic and tactical support by China has for far too long played the role of a “regional spoiler state” with a wink and condonation at times by the United States.
(Precisely, with China and also the USA....not really India's friend even now. Where is the billions of $ worth of cheap arms which the USA gives to its close pals.....non to India so far, BUT since 2001 unofficially $8---10 billion worth of arms given to Pakistan, into arms systems which are mainly directed against India.
Also the AQ Khan network, through Turkey and Israel worked closely with elements of the American security system to procure nuclear technology for the Pakistan nuclear weapons program from the 1980's.......thats Israel and the USA. So on two major areas; conventional arms and nuclear technology, the USA has helped Pakistan overtly and covertly.
China has helped as mentioned before with Pakistan's missile program, and nuclear industry. And standard conventional arms)
India’s efforts to effectively reorder the South Asia strategic landscape towards peace and stability were hamstrung all along by the United States and China who perceived Pakistan as a “rental state” to be strategically used for their national ends and not a wayward state requiring reining-in in the interests of peace and stability in South Asia and contiguous regions.
(YES.....)
A Talibanized Pakistan would cease to be of strategic utility to the United States and of uncertain use for China. (They could then use it against India.....as a "window of opertunity" Military men even in Pakistan rationalize and look at the broader picture, but with religious fruitcakes that rationalisation doesn't take place ever, and an unscrupulous power can use the Pakistan Taliban against India.....bear that in mind) A Talibanized Pakistan would emerge with marked Pan-Islamic linkages as a major security threat to the United States, Central Asia (and Russia by extension), Afghanistan, Iran and India. All of them would share a strategic convergence with India that a Talibanized Pakistan would not be in order for global and regional security interests.
(It doesn't work like that; too simplistic; who can say what alliances, intentions and actions take place when in the future IF the Taliban take over Pakistan. Its not about ganging up against Pakistan, making sure the country fails, and relishing it, hee! hee! hee! but being mature and guiding Pakistan away from trouble, and linking the country comprehensively into the emerging South Asian security, economic and political structures that are slowly emerging......this a safer and a wiser bet for India)
India’s policies on Pakistan and its political timidity towards dealings with Pakistan so far have been stymied by false hopes in the minds of Indian political leaders that somewhere on the horizon there hovered chances of peace with Pakistan.
(What would you like India to do, lash out? Pakistan has nukes that covers all India, and the real reason India has never lashed out against Pakistan, in addition to the fact that the Indian military machine is not in good shape in terms of a sustained military campaign against Pakistan....India thus far has fought 1/2 week wars against Pakistan and NOT into the months and years.
Democracies don't as a rule attack democracies, SO lets make Pakistan a sucessful fully functioning democracy. And for your information most Pakistanis want peace with India.
The problem for South Asia is the Pakistan military top brass with their set of agendas, and the ambivalence, lack of imagination and lack of urgency of Indian politicians in their approach of this very serious issue...........the fault is on both sides, that need to be identified, addressed and solved.)
Contemporary Pakistan has never delivered on these vain Indian hopes and a Talibanized Pakistan would be that much more farther on peace with India.
In India’s threat perceptions and India’s military planning the ambiguities on Pakistan imposed by Indian political leaders shall disappear. A Talibanized Pakistan therefore would emerge as a more predictable and firm threat to India’s national security and therefore not place India in apologetic postures of not using hard power against a Talibanized Pakistan.
(Again flawed premise and reasoning....would you like me to take this apart?)
The Indian Armed Forces are bound to militarily prevail over a Talibanized Pakistan despite any advantages arising to them from asymmetric warfare, irregular warfare or even terrorism and suicide bombings.
(You've been watching too many Bollywood movies on this subject)
Strong possibilities may exist that sections of the Pakistani population may seek Indian military support to rid their beloved Pakistan of the oppressive Taliban dispensation.
(Haa! Haa! dream on)
A Talibanized Pakistan therefore offers unprecedented windows of strategic opportunities to India to reorder South Asia towards stability and peace.
(SEE previous arguments. re poor governance in India)
However, it goes beyond saying that to exploit this window of strategic opportunity, India’s leaders need to get out if their political stupor and chicanery and ensure that the war preparedness of the Indian Armed Forces is constantly maintained in a high state of readiness. to meet the threats of a possible Talibanized Pakistan.
(I am all for India spending more on defense; appointing more credible people into this important portfolio instead of a long line of untouchable Christian converts who have questionable expertise in this area.....AND a more coherent defense policy that makes sense, and meets India's 21st security needs. Additionally an Indian military that is Indian, and which has shed its colonial heritage totally. And maybe if India is more confident and prosperous the recruitment of more Muslims from the present 2% to maybe 14% of the army, and especially Indian Muslims from the North of Pashtun descent!!!!)
Concluding Observations
Pakistan Talibanized would be the last manifestation of Pakistan as a “failed state” and as a prelude to its eventual disintegration.
The Indian policy establishment and nor the vast majority of the Indian people have ever sought the disintegration of Pakistan. Pakistan’s Talibanization therefore cannot be blamed in India.
Pakistan’s Talibanization would be brought to full culmination by the Pakistani peoples apathy to the Pakistan Army’s complicity in rearing the Taliban and sustaining its disruptive activities. The people of Pakistan themselves will ultimately have to save Pakistan from the impending disaster of their nation's Talibanization.
(Agreed, as they are in the process of doing right now)
The United States too has to answer a lot on the events leading to Pakistan’s Talibanization.
(ABSOLUTELY!!!!!!!!)
India admittedly should be “strategically concerned” on the emergence of a Talibanized Pakistan. India as an emerging power does not have to got into a state of hysteria over Pakistan’s Talibanization as sought to being sensationalized by the Indian media.
(Never the less it should be of concern)
India has successfully battled contemporary Pakistan Army’s wars and destabilizing operations against India for the last 62 years. The Indian Armed Forces can be expected to prevail over a Talibanized Pakistan and once again outlive it. All that India needs is resolute and determined political leadership willing to use the tremendous power leverages at its command.
