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Finally we have a security expert from India, possibly ex-RAW who acknowledges the reality of the power structure in Pakistan. So lets bring out the champagne bottle!!!! Its no good writing years and years about a country unless and until you have identified the REAL power behind the throne.................otherwise all your security assumptions and analysis is just "pissing in the wind".
Since the creation of Pakistan, Britain was the main power of influence, well into the 1950's. Britain helped create the ISI in 1948, and most promising officers recruited in Kakul, about 5 every year were sent to Sandhurst for further training that gave the British considerable leverage over the Pakistani military. Finally close friendship between senior British officers and their Pakistani counterparts........General Walker/Zia ul Haq.......Sir Charles Guthrie/Musharaf......these personal touches which most analyists don't notice are an important avenue through which a foreign power, as an informal friend can leverage considerable influence in Third World militaries.
From the 1960's the Americans with their huge arms aid, and economic aid replaced the influence of the British to a certain degree within the Pakistan military ($4 billion worth of aid 1954--69)..........But this may seem deceptive, even after this period the British with just a handful of senior British officers continued to exert considerable influence. Some alternative writers such as Peter Goodgame have suggested that the Mujaheddin of the 1980's idea in Afghanistan was more closely linked to the British then to the Americans.
So Kapila Sahib 50% right, and great to see FOR THE FIRST TIME an Indian security expert identifying correctly the real power structure in Pakistan. But don't forget the British. Remember a lot of people "advised" Zardari this week including the British. They have a role in Pakistan, no less, and Zardari was brought to power by both the USA/UK, since they assumed they could through him control Pakistani affairs, and its nukes more directly.
Then from a security perspective of South Asia we can look at the Taliban, "al-Qaeda" and the Kashmiri insurgency/terrorism in a new light................this is from an Indian security evaluation/ formulating a "nirvana".
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By Dr. Subash Kapila at SAAG.
Concluding Observations
The United States has for more than 60 years stood on the wrong side of history in Pakistan. Its support of Pakistan’s military regimes and civilian dictators has brought about a cumulative effect where Pakistan’s very existence as a nation-state has been made fragile and where anti-Americanism is the predominant mood in the masses.
Commencing in March 2007 and repeated now in March 2009, the massive turnout of Pakistanis on the streets in protest demonstrations is a reminder that they demand a complete transformation of Pakistan’s governance and political set up. Pakistanis predominantly want unadulterated democracy, human rights and liberal political institutions.
For the United States it is a major and critical policy dilemma as to whether it has the will to forsake the Pakistan Army as its instrument to further its strategic interests in South Asia and foster uninhibited democracy in Pakistan. It has yet to give any indications to this effect.
