Is Pakistan like Somalia, a failed state?
Yes and no.
Yes Pakistan is a failed state number 9 from the bottom.
And yet no, Pakistan is no Somalia as some in India might wish to imagine, along with strategists in other parts of the world in pursuing their criminal fantasies of empire, opium, oil and other such good things.
Somalia has a population of about 9.5 million people which is largely rural, with no significant cities except Mogadishu.
Pakistan by contrast has a population probably close to 180 million people (in South Asia the average is about 8% who are not counted by the official census, USA closer to 4--5%), with big cities like Karachi 14 million; Lahore 10 million; Peshawar 4 million including the refugee slums; Rawalpindi; 2 million; Faisalabad; Multan and Hyderabad all of which have populations over a million. Close to 60 million in Pakistan live in cities.
In addition Pakistanis are Aryan (30---40%, and the rest Indic)
It has an armed force which is unofficially 800,000 strong with paramilitaries of 300,000. Pakistan thus can mobilize between 1.5 million to 2 million men in a time of war, backed by 3,000 tanks, 2,000 artillery, 450 jet fighters and 50 nuclear warheads deliverable by cruise and other missiles with a maximum range of 2,000 kilometers.
In addition to the above, Pakistan has regional linkages. If a serious war to occupy Pakistan is initiated, then China foremost will intervene, and at a minimum will guarantee substantial material assistance to the Pakistan military under agreements with that country. So Pakistan will have the backing of the greatest industrial power in the world. In addition Pakistan is developing greater linkages with Iran, with road, rail(Turkey-Iran-Pakistan under plans) and gas pipeline links. If Karachi is blocked then besides the Kunjareb Pass, war material also will be delivered through Bandar Abbas to Pakistan.
Turkey has very close security linkages with Pakistan, and finally Gulf countries who have a history of funding various Pakistani "security initiatives" in the region, into the billions of $ over the last 30 years.
No wonder the Americans don't want Pakistan to fail, off loading billions of $ into the country.
In my humble opinion it is not so much about throwing more and more money at Pakistan, but that the Americans need to act more smartly. First they need to stop interfering in Pakistani politics and allow a civilian government which is reasonably effective to emerge. Throwing $ at corrupt ineffective governments such as Zardari who the Americans installed, will not solve the problem for America in Pakistan, but will merely create more hostility towards America, long term within Pakistan.
Maybe 70-80% of Pakistanis don't like America.
Supporting a corrupt government like Zardari may make Pakistan weak superficially, which enables the foreign fantasists to imagine that invading the country will be somewhat easier somewhere in the muddled ill defined future, but in reality the fundamentals of Pakistani society and its hidden underlying strengths won't diminish despite the best efforts of Zardari, Kiyani, Suja Pasha, Rehman Malik and others working as American agents against Pakistan inside Pakistan.
So why not make it easier for all of us and for once allow a reasonable civilian government to take power in Islamabad, instead of using the ISI to fix elections for the American backed candidate to win in February 2008?
As to India, all I can say is get over "Kargilism" since 1999, propagated by sections of the Anglopile media close to America. India is not America, and America is not India, they never will be. Further, when you have Soniaji and the Congress running Indian defense, there can never be a proper comprehensive effective defense policy for the Indian armed forces........there are psychological and political reasons for this related to the Gandhi clan.
You take Kargil which Musharaf launched and organized, for the start of his political claim to take power in Pakistan. He invested 5,000 paramilitary and irregulars with some of his SSG buddies organizing the whole lot, with very little artillery cover. They were pitted against 30,000 regulars of the Indian army, and 300 artillery pieces and were effectively slaughtered. Did Musharaf really intend taking any Indian territory, and in the process start a general war with India? Absolutely not........he was waging a war against Nawaz Sharif, who was consolidating his power, and was in the process of negotiating a major peace deal with India. The Pakistan military didn't want that, as much as the Pakistan military don't want Sharif to start a new campaign for power NOW-----hence the attack on the Sri Lanka cricket team on 3/3 by 12 assailants..........always look at the dates.
I am not the campaign manager for Sharif, I belong to no party, but I think he will probably do a better job than Zardari. What Sharif has to do is calm fears in the army and give private tacit solid guarantees that he will not prosecute Musharaf and his buddies in the top brass who were/are close to him, when Sharif comes to power again. Unfortunately Sharif has made some inflammatory speeches in that direction......so people in the military are nervous.
This is politics........emotions are high, people are paranoid, especially if they have things to hide and have been doing bad things in the country, when in fact officially, constitutionally, rationally, legally the army is charged with defending the country but turn out to be one of its greatest destabilizing threats in reality.
Well Mr. "Kargilism" the "Pakistan army" in inverted commas did badly, and indeed they made a major hash of it in 1965, and 1971 especially. But one wonders that when it comes to actually defending Pakistan they just might do a little better, despite the best efforts of their top brass.
The Indian army is in no shape to fully take on Pakistan as the top Indian brass made clear recently (their equipment is rusty old, lack spare parts, and not enough of the right equipment), with defense expenditure around 2%.
America has not poured any arms into India.......NOTHING.........so called great new friend of India, and India is not that keen to buy American arms either. Only the Israelis are dreaming about India attacking Pakistan as they have been requesting first through their Zionist contacts in the Soviet Union (Moraji Desai--confirmed this Soviet request 1979, MiG 29, and T-72 transfers, in the 1980's followed). The Israeli request for joint attacks against Pakistan many times in the 1980's, again declined by Congress.
Finally, more recently the $9 billion sale of Israeli arms and technology to India since 2000. The Israelis have ironed out the hitches in the Arjun tank I believe, and are providing assistance for Indian Missile technology. But I mean Mr. "Kargilism", the Indian armed forces require at least $100 billion worth of arms to fully modernize, and update all three services and especially the army (heavy artillery, mortars, attack helicopters, ATGWs, lt SAMs...and so on), and that Israeli $9 billion worth of arms transfers does not amount to a hill of beans.........it merely shows Israel's general desire for India to attack Pakistan for Israel; It may even show the culpability of Israel with Mumbai 26/11 (always look at the dates.......Israel almost has a sacred religious obsession with numbers and 'special dates' its part of their Judaic religion/tradition).
But to reiterate what I have said before, unless Uncle Sam, India's new great buddy in the region transfers huge quantities of conventional arms for the Indian army especially then the Indian army is not going to be in any shape to take on and deal with Pakistan comprehensively, but merely push the Pakis back to the border.
AMERICA GIVES MORE ARMS TO PAKISTAN FREE (military ASSISTANCE), EVEN NOW, THEN THEY SELL TO INDIA,..........SO GO FIGURE AS THEY SAY IN AMERICA.
The USA gives billions worth of arms to Pakistan as assistance, and Israel gives almost 10 billion worth of arms to India.
Obama the Socialist/closet Communist is not going to transfer huge quantities of arms to India beyond certain types of rhetoric which tickles the idiots in Delhi, as that might upset China. Why should they, they are under no obligations. But do balance this with the fact that the USA have said that they are going to make India into a "Great Power". Besides the absurdity of the statement in terms of its naivety, the REALITY is that beyond a few military exercises there hasn't been extensive technological transfers of crucial military hardware from the USA to India...............So either America policy makers are confused or misleading the Indians.
Finally there is the Congress Party, and how they relate to the armed forces.
All of which brings me to Nawaz Sharif and his attempt to stand for elections.
The Lahore terrorist attack against the Sri Lanka cricket team seems like the work of extremist elements of Pakistani politics who don't want Sharif to agitate for elections. Lahore is a heavily secured city, not like Karachi, and the Sri Lanka cricket team were well protected, very conscious of what is currently going on in Pakistani politics, so an action of this type must have been carried out by elements of Pakistani security, with close linkages to Islamic fundamentalists. By attacking in Lahore and Punjab, the power base of Sharif and his birth place the extremist elements were sending him a message, not to agitate for power and disturb the rotten apple cart of Zardari, Kiyani and Suja Pasha.
So what is Sharif to do?
He can either hide behind Kulsoon begum, "retire" to London, and discover a new career, maybe selling gents wigs.
He can role up his sleeve and do his duty for his country. And he grasps what he is up against.
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