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This is a tricky one, but one that I roughly endorsed back in late 2005, and conveyed to Iranian publishers, but got no response.
Iran faces many problems and the nuclear issue is a distraction to these challenges of the state.
The full potential of nuclear power for Iran is a long way off, by which time hydrogen power and other forms of alternative power may become more commercially viable and attractive. The Iranian state no doubt is already exploring these alternative options now.....Solar power, hydrogen power...etc.
Nuclear power, with the tragedy of Japan has acquired a poor reputation, and is not seen as such a cheap and clean source of power as before.
Abundant oil and gas will always be available for Iran, since oil and gas are natural minerals which are chemically produced by the earth, and thus not finite. Iran with its $930 billion PPP economy uses but a small proportion of its oil and gas resources, which is exploited with outdated capital equipment badly in need of significant capital investment.
Strategically speaking, beyond specific scientific and medical requirements, Iran is not badly in need of a civilian nuclear power sector. Kissinger and other high powered Republicans merely persuaded the last Shah to go for an expensive $90 billion civilian nuclear program because of the lobby activity of the USA nuclear industry, AND poorly/falsely? researched arguments that Iran's oil would run out by the year 2000 from the USA(Peak Oil).............the mullahs merely reinstated that program, in a far more modest scale than the last Shah, from the late 1980's, after initially shutting it down in 1979.
The nuclear program in Iran belongs to the Shah, and his legacy, the Republicans and America's nuclear industry.
On the other hand tiny geographical strip Israel is on a mission led by a minority in its security apparatus, for a fantasy called "Ahavat Eretz Israel"..........Iran in any shape or form might thus be a threat to that eventual desired outcome within Israel's security perceptions and goals.
The legitimate civilian nuclear issue is thus a mere platform on which to pick a fight with Iran, using the services of the USA. Attacking Iran, destroying Iran, dividing Iran. The process began in the late 1970's when the mullahs were brought into power by the USA/UK.......the result of which has since seriously de-legitimated the country especially in the West.
One thinks even if the mullahs were to shut down the modest civilian nuclear program now, tiny geographical strip Israel would find other excuses to pick a fight with mullah Iran......using the services of their Western networks, because as the writer below correctly surmises the real issue for Israel is not Iran's peaceful, legal, nuclear program, but Israel's desire to create Ahavat Eretz Israel, and thus become the undisputed geographical empire smack bang in the Middle East......surrounded by permanently destabilized quasi-states at war within, Somalia like.
To reinforce this fact, the fifth column of Islamic Fundamentalism in Iran is backed by a significant core of senior secret Jews within the state structure of Iran, who would ensure Israel's extremist strategic requirements were met and followed by mullah Iran to the strategic detriment of Iran.......as argued by me, before:
(i) Who is but Jew Ahmedinejad who shouts the loudest about Iran's nuclear rights, and the country's desire to acquire 20 more civilian nuclear reactors. At International platforms, for Israel, in the UN and around the world where he repeats this national slogan, whereas he should be explanation the very modest nature of Iran's civilian nuclear program, and the fact that it is closely monitored by the IAEA........through simple diplomatic language, and not firey rhetoric. Instead of deescalating he escalates the issue in tandem with the Western Jewish media. Then he makes firey speeches against Israel, even though the common people have elected him to solve the country's dire economic problems.
(ii) It is the drive of the secret Jews in Iran for ISRAEL who wish to block the straights of Hormuz, even though strategically it does not make sense from Iran's real point of view. Iran's real defense lye's in defending the Iranian landmass using the army, revolutionary guards and air-force, and its cities, and its strategic sites in Iran.
Also having shouted about the rights of every nation to have civilian nuclear power for so long, and allowed the IAEA to monitor some pretty sensitive security sights in Iran for Israel for 8 years, it may be difficult for the mullahs........mediocre, directed and stupid as they are to accept that they really don't need nuclear power after all in order to develop and become more prosperous.(my arguments submitted to them in 2005)
As argued more diplomatically back then, running a banana republic economy on the verge of collapse and being destroyed significantly by the USA for Israel is not worth the cost of having, or baring a minuscule civilian nuclear program which for many years will account for a small percentage of Iran's total power generation.
But the international platform is run by men who wave their willies, and where people do stupid things based on their ego's, fantasy and often criminality.
Not logic certainly.
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How Iran Could Whip the United States and Israel Without Firing a Single ShotNot logic certainly.
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By Mark R. Crovelli at Lew Rockwell and information clearing House.
To the outside observer, the intensifying conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran (along with some lesser bellicose nations, like Britain) may appear like a classic "prisoner’s dilemma." The best option for both sides seems to be to pacify their domestic constituencies by escalating the conflict, which will ensure the worst possible outcome. The Israeli right-wing government is seemingly beholden to its extremist and terrorist voting blocs, while the American government is seemingly fenced in by the Israel lobby, neoconservative candidates vying for the imperial throne, the US empire and merchants of death, and the Israeli government itself. Meanwhile, the semi-totalitarian Iranian government is seemingly obliged to "stand up" to the aggressive Americans and their "Zionist client state," lest it be seen as "soft" or "weak" by its own citizens.
As in a classic prisoner’s dilemma, both sides are ostensibly ensuring the worst possible outcome by focusing on their own domestic political agendas at the expense of the bigger picture and saner solutions.
If this conflict did indeed represent a classic prisoner’s dilemma, we would have little reason to think that the conflict will not worsen dramatically in the future. We would have to assume that both sides would continue to escalate the conflict to a point from which it would be completely impossible to pull back. World War III would be virtually assured.
Fortunately, however, the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran is not a prisoner’s dilemma situation, because the Iranians hold a trump card that they can eventually use to unequivocally "win" the conflict. The trump card that the Iranians hold, and one prays that they are aware that they hold this card, is to completely dump their nuclear program.
Before you guffaw or snort at this suggestion, recall that this conflict between the Americans and Israelis on the one hand and the Iranians on the other is not about nuclear power or nuclear weapons. As the American intelligence agencies and the American government itself have assured us, to say nothing of the IAEA’s redundant assurances, there is absolutely no evidence that the Iranians are currently attempting to build or acquire nuclear weapons. Nor is the Iranian government an "existential threat" to Israel even if it did acquire nuclear weapons, as even the head former head of the Mossad has assured us. Nor still is there any need for the United States to aid in the defense of Israel, as Benjamin Netanyahu himself informed the American congress.
Bearing all this in mind, the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has absolutely nothing to do with nuclear power or nuclear weapons. Instead, the pointless conflict is all about cold, hard political power in the Middle East, with the Israelis hoping to secure a vice-like grip on the region.
The Iranian government itself is surely aware of this, and you can bet your last dollar that the Iranian people are aware of it too. The media in Iran is run by the government, which means that the government has undoubtedly informed the Iranian people that it is complying with IAEA regulations and that even the American intelligence agencies say that the Iranian government is not pursuing nuclear weapons.
Why should the Iranian people doubt the sincerity of the Iranian government’s pleas of innocence, when even the IAEA and American intelligence agencies assure them that the Iranian government is not pursuing nuclear weapons? More importantly, why should the rest of the Islamic world doubt the sincerity of the Iranian government’s pleas of innocence, when even the IAEA and American intelligence agencies assure them that the Iranian government is not pursuing nuclear weapons?
The answer is that they have absolutely no reason to doubt the Iranian government’s sincerity, and therein lies Iran’s trump card in this conflict. The Iranian government will not lose face with the rest of the Islamic world if it decides to terminate its nuclear program completely, as Israel and Washington demand, and diffuse the entire situation. Obama and Netenyahu would be so caught off guard by such a move that peace would be virtually assured, and the reputation of the Iranian government would be magnified a thousand fold in the region. The Iranian government would be viewed as a sane, peaceful and, most importantly, trustworthy government by the rest of the Islamic world.
Instead of toppling their regional rival, the Israelis would find themselves confronting a newly lionized giant. Forget the Arab Spring of 2011; the Iranian Spring of 2012 would transform the world.
The Americans and their European underlings would have little reason to continue their unjust and bellicose sanctions if the Iranians did precisely what was demanded of them. Continuation of the sanctions would only appear to be unjust and Iraq-like meddling in the Islamic world in the arrogant hope of "regime change" for Washington and Tel Aviv’s benefit. The reversal of sanctions, on the other hand, would almost instantaneously revive Iran’s economy, as petrodollars once again flooded the economy. Hillary Clinton and her chickenhawk confreres would no doubt still whine that the Iranians don’t "recognize" Israel, (as if it matters to the nuclear-armed Israelis whether another country "recognizes" them, whatever that even means), but poor Hillary would be at a complete loss as to what else to do.
For the sake of the entire world, especially including the hapless citizens if Iran, Israel, and the United States, one can only pray that the Iranians are politically savvy enough to recognize that they can win this conflict without even firing a shot. They don’t need to shut down the Straits of Hormuz, and they don’t need to fire a single Silkworm missile at an American aircraft carrier. All they need to do is shut down their nuclear programs in toto, and they will emerge from this conflict as the dominant and respected regional power of the Middle East.
Most importantly, they will thereby avert World War III and the spilling of much innocent blood.
