Dec 5, 2008

Ultimatums don't usually solve any problems.






India has demanded 20 people on its most wanted list from Pakistan, ranging from fugitive gangsters from the Mumbai under world, to Sikhs who wish to create an independent Khalistan, and those linked to Kashmiri insurgency groups.


They are demanded by India on the basis that what happened in Mumbai on the 26th to 29th was Pakistan's responsibility solely. And that the sole survivor, produced by Mumbai authorities, among the terrorists is a Pakistani national linked to the LeT, from Faridkot, Punjab, Pakistan.

For Pakistan to hand over the 20 to India, the Pakistani authorities would have to admit that their nationals actually caused the Mumbai attacks, with possible quasi-national organizations providing logistics from Pakistan. According to some American sources, NOT officially verified, retired Pakistani officers apparently may have been involved in the planning and training of such people. This is the rumor from American sources in the media.

How the Americans know about such things is also intriguing, given the fact they can't even prevent such incidents on their own soil, in 1993, 1995 and 2001. And why it is any of their business in specifically taking such interest in South Asian internal affairs.

Given this fact it is highly unlikely that Pakistan will hand over the 20 to India, short of causing a civil war within Pakistan. In fact since this was first written they have declined the Indian Ultimatum.The Zardari government is in a weak position in Pakistan, so it does not even have the power to hand them over in the real world............technically speaking they can, but reality they can't.

Nor should they if this is the approach of the Indian authorities.

So the ball is in India's court, and it is up to them how much willie they want to wave around against Pakistan. With Obama in power soon the Indian's might feel more aggressive towards Pakistan. But unrealistic ultimatums to each other are slippery slopes......................ultimatums don't solve anything, but rather encourage nations into regressive defensive postures.

They narrow government options, and box governments into specific position, from where little manouver is possible, let alone dialogue and negotiation.

If I were Pakistan, partial mobilization, without significant movement of troops to the Indian border might be in order. Missile tests of the Ghauri are unnecessary provocations and should not be undertaken at this juncture, as in previous occasions. The arrival of the American Secretary of State to India on the 3rd has stiffened the Indians resolve it seems.........which is a shame.

I still maintain that to forestall such future incidents (If the Israelis did it once with the RSS, and got away with it-------and according to Hemant Kakare the RSS did this many times before, they surely will try again in 6 months, 12 months or 2 years time......to influence Indian elections, and voters). Therefore the correct and mature approach by Congress, would be to build viable mechanisms between the two nations, as suggested before in my open letter to the Indian government, to put in place such systems so that when it happens AGAIN the two sides can maturely deal with it in the future.

It is safety mechanism.

For the Indian government to talk hardball in the presence of American officials, against a fellow South Asian country is a disgusting spectacle. This is a family problem, it should be dealt within the family of South Asian nations in SAARC, meetings should be convened for example. Just like the Kashmir problem, and many other bilateral problems between the two nations. Ultimatums do not constitute serious diplomacy, but are mere indications of governments inability to find practical solutions to long term problems in the region.