Launching strikes in Pak: Will it serve the purpose?
For the last several days, there has been talk of how the impasse after the Mumbai terror strikes could pave the way for military strikes on terror hubs in Pakistan.
(There is no impasse in reality, only a perception of impasse, by some .The Indian authorities need to initiate full investigations of the affair, the role of the senior Mumbai police officers, more investigations about the terrorists and their background, and then share the information with the Pakistani authorities, and then face to face meetings there after........beyond media spats and ultimatums serious logical state to state processes need to be instituted. All this takes time.
Inviting a couple of security agencies from the West to verify hasty Indian allegations, when no full investigations have been instituted and their report finalized, and then make ultimatums of hand over individuals or else, or "you have so many days left to work miracles", is not the way of going about conducting business with a neighbor.
{Would China or Russia allow foreign security agencies to undertake investigations in their country? Of course not, because these countries respect the competency of their own state security agencies}
(i) Judicial inquiry into the performance of the local and national security of India in Mumbai. How do you have 10 late adolescent young AMATEURS hold off India's finest security of 800 + men, and 40,000 police for the better part of 3 days, without sleep constantly fighting in 13 different locations all at the same time, or similar times, in groups of 2, 3 or 4--mathematically, logically, physically impossible-----and the Judicial inquiry should give us answers. The Congress Party should have nothing to fear from this at least, I assume.
(ii) Judicial inquiry into the terrorists of Mumbai, jointly with Pakistan. I first thought this offer of a joint probe was a gimmick by the Pakistani government, to buy time and fudge the issue, but thinking about it a little further, its not such a bad idea-------once the Pakistanis start working with their Indian colleagues through this one incident in Mumbai, India can use that channel of cooperation to press Pakistan on other related matters especially in Kashmir, more effectively. If Zardari the gangster from Sindh is trying to be a little different from the Pak armed forces and separate himself from them, then the Indian government should accept this offer. If the Indians can invite several foreign security to look at their internal security, they should be more then willing to work with Pakistan to get at into this problem further jointly.
(iii) Judicial inquiry into Hemant Kakares death, and his whole field of work.
An opportunity has arrived for the Congress Party to reinforce its position vis a vi India, and Pakistan........that leads to meaningful outcomes for all.
Verbal spats through the media, I repeat again have limited utility. The only foreign countries that matters in Pakistani politics is the USA, and the UK. Asking China, Iran, Saudi............whats next, the Maldives? to curb Pakistan is not effective, because these countries don't have the power and influence that the USA/UK has over the country. And it makes India look ineffective diplomatically, because what India desires simply will not take place in Pakistan.
Additionally Kashmir belongs to India, and realistically Pakistan can do very little about that. Unfortunately the thinking by some in Pakistan, especially in the military is that if India helped the Mukti Bahini liberate East Pakistan, with 80,000 fully armed fighters, and thus divide the country why can't Pakistan do the same if Kashmiris desire ceding from India? There are a couple of problems with this Pakistani equation. First the Pakistani armed forces on the 25th of March launched a genocidal campaign in East Pakistan, and thus effectively forced East Pakistanis to seek liberation. Second the manner of the genocidal campaign by the Pakistani army created massive refugee problems for India---10 million East Pakistanis flooded into India. No country could tolerate such a situation, and so India's hand was also forced on the East Pakistan matter. The conduct of the Indian armed forces in Kashmir is not like the Pakistani armed forces performance in relation to East Pakistan. You cannot equate the two.
And so the Pakistanis must be educated to the fact that they should not allow their territory to be used for insurgency operations in Indian Kashmir. But not through threats, but through legalising the current LoC, as a permament international boundary as soon as possible, and it becomes a non-issue there after.
Additionally can we finally have joint regular meetings of security officials from both countries, beyond the Mumbai incident. Between the armed Forces heads of each country; the intelligence chiefs and finally the senior police, along with the usual bureaucrats.
Though both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Pakistani counterpart have stated that war should be avoided.
(But there is a diplomatic language of flip flopping which creates uncertainty.......which causes the Pakistanis to transfer troops from the West where they are engaging Pashtun insurgents, and redeploying them along the Indian border)
There have been reports of how both Indian and Pakistani forces remain on full alert for a military confrontation, but armed forces remain on alert even during peacetime and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have proven that conventional military strikes cannot defeat a determined terrorist force.
In the current situation in the subcontinent, here is why a military option may achieve very little.
Bombs can destroy structures, terrorists can disperse
India's frontline fighters are armed with laser guided bombs, the bombs that can strike a target with pinpoint accuracy. But while this can be used to target structures, how can bombs eliminate terrorist groups who could be expecting such strikes and may well have dispersed from their terrorist camps.
Will India risk a war with a nuclear-armed Pakistan?
Is the government prepared to launch air strikes on the territory of a country, which is armed with nuclear weapons and where there is no clarity on who controls the weapons, civilians or the military.
Conventional war cannot destroy terrorism
In the event of a Pakistani counter-attack, which is entirely expected, a battle to target terrorists could well turn into a full-scale war between India and Pakistan. This would be fought using tanks, warships and fighter aircraft. How would this thwart terrorism?
Pakistan's army would shift away from containing terrorists
Is it in India's interests to fight an army, which is otherwise occupied in containing terrorism on the Afghanistan front?
Reserve formations not mobilised
Even if India prepares for war, it would take more than a month to have its defences in place on the western front, which requires massive mobilisation. This has not happened.
A war will be costly
Economically, a war between India and Pakistan even for a period of two or three weeks would cost thousands of crores. This would damage the foreign investment climate and affect GDP growth.
Perhaps the biggest concern for India is the game of brinkmanship being played out. There is a danger that Pakistani forces could provoke an Indian reaction thereby deflect from the real issue of emanating terrorism from its soil. This could be done through:
(Pakistan is a failed state that needs to be protected from itself. Pakistan's disintegration does not serve India's long term interests because:
(i) A disintegrated Pakistan creates more problems for India then the current united one (current population 175 million, and that will reach around 400 million by 2050. A united Pakistani state is the best agent to deal with this future demographic problem---a disintegrated state will create MASSIVE social and economic problems for India. Never mind security issues. Just think about what 20 million Bangladeshis have done to Indian demographics in Bengal and Assam alone.
(ii) Who can say with certainty that the "East India company" forces who have been destabilising Pakistan for many decades don't turn their attentions on India there after, when they have finished with Pakistan. In the Third World we are after all facing a new neo-colonialism.)
Pakistan is going through a difficult patch, and India I say again needs to manage Pakistan and guide the country into a EU style organisation for South Asia as soon as possible. That is the best solution to the Pakistan problem, for India.
