12.11.10

China Number one

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China may be bigger economy than US within two years

Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of The Daily Telegraph, is one of Britain's leading business and economics commentators.


According to the Conference Board, a highly respected economic research association, China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy by 2012, or within two years.

OK, so in dollar terms, that’s obviously not going to be the case. It will be a lot longer than two years before China overtakes the US on that measure. But in terms of purchasing power parity, according to the Conference Board’s latest world economic outlook, China is already nearly there, and by 2020 will have reached a size of output which is nearly half as big again as the US.

(What Jeremy means in simple language, given China's levels of growth steadily over 30 odd years, and the multiplier effect, is that China will have an economy which is twice the size of the USA by 2020. Easier to predict China's performance Jeremy, given its steady growth. Not so sure about the American economy, and where it will be at by 2020.

The performance of modern economies of countries which are especially large and cumbersome{ some of the most successful nations on earth by all measures are in fact quite small....Norway, Switzerland, New Zealand, Singapore, Finland} depend heavily on their elite ruling groups and the macro-decisions they make in both political and social spheres. America has been successful precisely because it is a nation that has easily self reflected, with circumspection, with foresightedness and subsequently reformed itself.

HOWEVER, unlike in previous times, the American elite power structure is dominated by Jews and Crypto-Jews now (John Kerry, Bush family, Rockefeller, Clinton's) who share a narrower world view which have specific agenda's and aims, without being flexible and necessarily rational or logical. Their power structure is concentrated around NY, and based around Wall Street which thus limits the flexibility of such a narrow elite from exploring options outside of their rather narrow JEWISH BOX, filled with mystical numbers, Quija boards, scared brown cows, soothsayers and prominent rabbis with "wisdom".

The Republican Party and Democratic Party are thus two sides of the same Jewish coin. There is no real difference. Capitol Hill is Jewish Occupied territory......so America will not be able to reform itself out of trouble

China is successful precisely because a far sighted leader such as Deng Xiaoping ejected Jewish Communist Dogma which may have killed 60 million Chinese under Mao, in favor of "Communism with two faces"......flexibility, and pragmatism)


Here’s the Wkipedia link explaining what PPP is
, but broadly speaking the idea is to measure output according to the volume, not the price of goods and services produced. The assumption made is that identical goods will have the same price in different markets. In practice, this is obviously not the case. A taxi ride in Beijing, for instance, will cost you approximately a tenth of what it costs in London. But it is essentially the same service.

In any case, in PPP terms, the Conference Board’s projections show China as 24.1 per cent of world output by 2020, and the US at just 14.8 per cent.

We all knew that the weight of economic growth had skewed dramatically since the crisis from advanced to emerging market economies, but many in the West don’t yet seem fully to appreciate the speed with which economic and geo-political power is shifting. This is a truly seismic change. How these once irrelevant economies choose to use their new found power is the overarching question of our times.