21.9.10

Great power status is not important for India.....history is replete with nations which once were great powers.

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There is a flurry of reports "talking up" India from the USA. I am cynical enough to think that most of it is not altruistic, but that clearly such chatter serve some kind of overall USA agenda, which one might perceive to be ultimately unfavorable to India in its real long term essence.

At a more tangible level it tends to raise tensions with China, though not overtly never the less the Chinese attempt to reduce Indian power in a variety of ways, which may not have originally materialized had such statements not been made. It creates an artificial competition between the two neighbors.

If the USA was serious about such statements, they might have first taken clear steps to guarantee and organize with the UK, France and Russia that India would have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, as befitting a "Great Power" number 3 with nuke weapons, and 1.5 million men under arms. This was after all what the USA anointed to China far back in the 1960's when she barely had diplomatic representation with the USA.

China sees itself as the greatest Asian power, and soon this century will prize the mantle of the greatest power, hence its over reaction to little territorial incidents which smaller nations might have otherwise ignored. If that is China's destiny then that is fine.

But India needs to be careful that through false utterances it does not unnecessarily get into the wrong side of China. Indeed it is encouraged that India becomes a proactive accepted member of the SCO, and not too remote from China.


India should not seek 'great power' status because the USA promises to make India into a great power. There is something truly absurd about such statements from the USA. No nation on earth makes another nation into a great power. Thus India strategically must be wary of such statements from the USA.

The trade between China/US is near $400 billion in 2010. The trade between India/USA is near $40 billion.

Or put it another way, China this year may well export $340 billion worth of goods and services to the USA to the detriment of the USA trade balance, jobs and USA manufacturing base, whilst India will export a paltry $20 billion. These are the real FACTS of the relationship of the two states. Trade between nations don't happen by chance, but through government design and the manipulation of trading laws and taxes. There is no such thing as free trade.

If the USA is serious about improving relations with India onto a more solid foundation, then the USA should help India export substantially more to the USA, and vice versa which is mutually beneficial...say $300 billion worth of trade between the two by 2015. Simultaneously the USA should cut back on its aid commitment to Pakistan which run into possibly $25 billion over several years, through direct USAID, IMF and WB soft loans. Especially defense sales.

Let us not in India be shallow and superficial, when the USA yet again tells India that she is a great power, and the USA will make her a even greater power!!!! Where was the USA in India's strategic spectrum for the last 63 years......in its industry, and arms sector? The bulk of the aid given to India between 1950--1970...$9 billion was food, and other less significant aid, and not in the strategic sectors. On the other hand the USA has continually beefed up Pakistan's armed forces who then used their American arms against India in 1965, and 1971 especially.


It is a well known FACT that American industry/finance built up both the Soviet Union's strategic industries...oil, steel, electricity, automobile and so forth from the 1920's and Nazi Germany's war machine in parallel, to the point where both nations felt they were a dire threat to each other. It was not mere business opportunism which led American industry/finance down that path, but calculated political decision making which resulted in WWII, between essentially two over armed neighbors, thanks to the help of the USA covertly. Initial Soviet Tanks were produced under license from the USA, and initial German warplanes were designed and aided by Americans.

Thus India with its mere 39 ordinance factories, with its 80% imported arms.......and multiple socio-economic problems needs to dream a little less about being a great power. Great power status is not important. What is important is that India is a well balanced prosperous society, which is well educated and All BASIC NEEDS are met for all its people. Finally that India should not be the home for the greatest number of people living in poverty.

I can any day, at any time produce a report which says Lata Mangeshkar is the greatest singer on earth, and say that I love her music. Without much REAL evidence or effort. Opinion is after all opinion. On the other hand if I merchandise and promote Lady Gaga at the same time, to the point of destroying my own career and lifetstyle sycophantically, which then leads her to earn 10 times more than our beloved Lata Mangeshkar, then there is a double standard in my utterance.

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India Third most powerful nation: US report.

By TOI.

India is listed as the third most powerful country in the world after the US and China and the fourth most powerful bloc after the US, China and the European Union in a new official US report.

The new global power line-up for 2010 also predicted that New Delhi's clout in the world will further rise by 2025, according to "Global Governance 2025" jointly issued by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) of the US and the European Union's Institute for Security Studies (EUISS).

Using the insights of a host of experts from Brazil, Russia, India and China, among others, and fictionalised scenarios, the report illustrates what could happen over the next 25 years in terms of global governance.

In 2010, the US tops the list of powerful countries/regions, accounting for nearly 22 percent of the global power.

The US is followed by China with European Union at 16 percent and India at eight percent. India is followed by Japan, Russia and Brazil with less than five percent each.

According to this international futures model, by 2025 the power of the US, EU, Japan and Russia will decline while that of China, India and Brazil will increase, even though there will be no change in this listing.

By 2025, the US will still be the most powerful country of the world, but it will have a little over 18 percent of the global power.

The US will be closely followed by China with 16 percent, European Union with 14 percent and India with 10 per cent.

"The growing number of issues on the international agenda, and their complexity, is outpacing the ability of international organisations and national governments to cope," the report warns.

This critical turning point includes issues of climate change, ethnic and regional conflicts, new technology, and the managing of natural resources.

The report also highlights the challenges proponents of effective global governance face.

On one hand, rapid globalization, economic and otherwise, has led to an intertwining of domestic politics and international issues and fuelled the need for more cooperation and more effective leadership.

But on the other hand, an increasingly multipolar world, often dominated by non-state actors, has put a snag in progress toward effectual global governance, it said.