Pakistan in trouble.

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What Kayani Can Learn From Putin
By Ahmed Quraishi.com

By allowing foreign militaries a free reign in our tribal belt to kill hundreds of innocent Pakistanis, Pakistan is committing the same mistake as Putin’s, who initially did well a decade ago by crushing the rebellion in Chechnya but now is creating more rebels because of highhandedness. Also, Pakistan has no business eliminating the Afghan Taliban, who survived the 2001 war thanks to US mismanagement. The problem should be solved inside Afghanistan, not Waziristan.

(There are no parallels with Russia here, so the analogy is wholly wrong. The Soviet Union broke up in 1991, and the various Soviet Satellites broke away, but the Chechen were within the geographical boundaries of Southern Russia, so the idea of breaking away for them, long held, was practically not possible. The Chechen achieved some measure of independence under Yeltsin, but Putin under a banner of Russian nationalism and populist revivalism, reclaimed Chechnya through military force, installing a puppet called Kadirov. Chechnya is geographically flat and contains about 1 million people, and represents less than 0.65% of Russia's overall population.

The foreign elements who fund the Chechen insurgency is minuscule and manageable from Russia's security point of view........and we may say that Russian intelligence and the Russian military are far more powerful and competent in dealing with such a minor problem in comparison to the Pakistani military security apparatus.......Russia is the 6/7 richest country on earth on a par with the UK, and a $2100 billion economy measured by PPP, with foreign currency reserves of $460 billion.....with more Euro Capital flights coming into the country. It is a stable Democracy, dominated by Oligarchical Jews.

Now Pakistan on the other hand is in a very different situation. It is a failed state, 9th from the bottom with all the problems of a failed state. It is dominated by the USA, and the Pakistani elite more or less follows the orders of the USA, even when it is all too apparent that certain state policies of Pakistan lobbied by the USA are clearly harming Pakistan.

The current President of Pakistan is a crook who served 8 years in prison, and has looted $3--4 billion from the state coffers, and through commissions.

If the Pakistani elite and especially the military are unable to pursue policies independent of the USA, which may benefit Pakistan, then its a bit of a pointless exercise theorizing how Pakistan might learn from Putin............Putin is Putin in charge of Russia. Kiyani by contrast has spent extensive time training in the USA in their military academies, conditioned to see the benefits of American power, and has developed considerable personal friendships through this training with American senior officers. With such a background he lacks the character to rebel, and reorientate fundamental state policy away and independent of the USA..........which is what Pakistan is crying out for.

So Ahmed Beta its not about "Good ideas" and their wonderful possibilities in a country, but observing the power structure and who follows who. America's problems can be solved quite easily, but again its a question of observing the power structure and who follows who. Kiyani.....the most powerful person in Pakistan can reject American directives, but he won't. Even though Kiyani holds considerable leverage over the Americans.......

the American military operation in Afghanistan would collapse without Pakistani cooperation.

Pakistan is a nuclear power.

Pakistan is conventionally a considerable military power, more powerful than Iran...15th in the world....out of 200 countries.

The USA is no condition to attack Pakistan directly.

Pakistan at any time can move very close to India and also China even further.......thus reducing the dependence on the USA.

BUT KIYANI WITH HIS AMERICAN TRAINING HAS BEEN CONDITIONED TO OBEY, AND NOT CRITICALLY CHALLENGE THE USA.

Also modern state craft is not so much about charismatic leadership, but about having sound state institutions which can effectively implement policies from the center throughout the country. Even if a Sher Shah existed within the ranks of the corp commanders of the top military brass, he still would have problems guiding the failed State of Pakistan into a proper path independent of the USA because of the fundamental structural problems of the Pakistani state, which fails the people at every level from failing to deliver education, health, transport, security, food, jobs, social welfare....and economic development.


But there are some Iranians in Pakistan and there are Iranians in Russia, but thats it.


The NWFP and Pashtuns represent 15-17% of Pakistan's population; is a underdeveloped region with little infrastructure or roads, and is mountainous. Pashtuns are 26% of the Pakistani military and intelligence, and are a critical force within Pakistani society...........unlike Chechens in Russia.


What Putin did in Chechnya has been much criticized by many in the International field, BUT Russia will survive such criticism. On the other hand what the Pakistani military are doing in the NWFP {2003---2010} can eventually lead to the breakup of the entire country, and provide the casus belli of foreign hostile powers to invite themselves in to "assist" Pakistan......as it struggles to deal with Pakistani insurgents.........so its far far more serious.

Millions of refugees in that region, people needlessly uprooted. lives disrupted, innocent people killed in the crossfire, physical destruction of property and landscape in what is already with Baluchistan one of the poorest parts of Pakistan.........this will inevitably lead to a general rebellion against the central government eventually.)

It was brave on the part of Pakistan army chief to publicly apologize for mistakenly bombing and killing tens of innocent Pakistanis in a Khyber Agency village. In a similar incident in 2006 during the reign of his predecessor, where a US missile killed up to 80 children in a school, the action was not only defended but the Pakistani military was forced to own it, giving the first signal to everyone that innocent Pakistanis can be killed with impunity as part of the war on terror. Since then, more than a thousand innocent Pakistanis have lost their lives as collateral damage in these ‘successful’ drone attacks. This would remain one of the darkest spots in our history where our rulers shirked their responsibility for the protection of every Pakistani citizen on our soil.

(The apology is meaningless, rather like the Pakistani military commanders going to Bangladesh frequently and apologizing for the genocide of 3 million locals and the rape of 500,000 women, and driving 10 million refugees into India.

The Bangladesh government finally after 38 years is initiating wars crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity charges against the perpe--traitors within the Pakistani military. Shabash!!!! Long overdue. In time we may see similar charges from Baluchistan, and the NWFP. There after the "Raj Poonjab Police Force" should be dissolved, and something wholly new replacing it, devoid of its colonial era MO and mentality, and reflex action.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if the Pakistani military did not do these war crimes in the first place? The Pakistan military has killed more of its own people, than any other military in the world.

What the Pakistani military is doing in the NWFP after $ funding is nothing short of treason against the Pakistani people........but then again we must look at its history since 1947)

But the army chief’s apology is also an opportunity to review whether it is acceptable to have allowed ourselves and our American allies to import their methods of dealing with occupied populations ( as ) in Iraq and Afghanistan .......(and so also against) our own people inside our own homeland.

(Over due for the sake of the basic survival of the country)

This review is important because these imported methods of dealing with occupied populations are not only unsuitable here but are radicalizing our own citizens instead of pacifying them, producing more disgruntled citizens for our enemies to recruit, brainwash and use to kill more Pakistanis and spread mayhem.

(Yes, but Ahmed you should specify clearly without being girly shy who is responsible for reviewing this very important policy.......Zardari?...no...........Zamindari Gilani?.....no......Sharif and all the rich commercials?.....no.

The main responsibility lies with the COAS and corps commanders. They have the final and ultimate say in ALL security/strategic matters...........thats why important visiting Americans see Kiyani first, and why the American media as with Musharaf butter him so much.

The problem for Pakistan is that the Pakistani military operates on an unofficial doctrine of crisis management which basically means that the bulk of terrorist acts within Pakistan emanates from.................The Pakistan military or its various proxies.....anti Shia militia...anti whatever militia and so forth. For them, in their world view the loss of a few civilians is acceptable. Such a doctrine also explains why Pakistan has been in 4 wars against India, and two near wars.

The only foreign terrorist group which is operating currently against Pakistan is the TTP, which is USA funded, using ex-Guantanomo detainees, and ....yes angry Pashtuns. As with the Mukti Bahini backed by RAW, the ranks of the anti-Pakistan Taliban will grow, as the Pakistan military undertakes overt operations against the locals at the behest of the USA, and Pashtuns desert from the regular Pakistan army.........it is only a matter of time........Kiyani's superficial $1.2 million PR in Swat, with the backdrop of thousands dead and abused and $100 of millions worth of property damaged will come to naught........the ONLY solution is to not carry out such operations in the first place)

In using these imported methods we are committing the same mistake that President Putin, now a prime minister, has been committing in Chechnya for the past decade. He successfully curbed the insurgency and ended the ability of the US and other countries to use Chechnya to bleed Russia by covertly supplying weapons and intelligence to the insurgents. But instead of building on that success, Mr. Putin continues to use aggressive tactics in Chechnya, breeding more insurgents and more opportunities for outsiders to meddle. [The latest suicide attacks in Moscow involved a young woman who blew herself up because Russian military killed her husband].

(I am fully aware Ahmed that you are an ISI mouth-piece front, but I was hoping you weren't a kuta tati western backed journo disinformation agent sell out like Saleem Shahzad and Ahmed Rashid. But since the Western countries bankroll the ISI one should not be overly surprised as to your true loyalty.

The Russian Chechen problem is centuries old where a Christian empire attempted to subjugate a Muslim people (Chechens like many Russians are of Iranian stock.....and are a thoroughly interesting people, not unlike Pashtuns one may say)

As have been stated before the Russian military and intelligence agencies are more than competent in dealing with 0.65% of its people. We must not forget that the 800,000 former KGB was at one time the most powerful and effective intelligence agency in the world, and the infiltration of Chechen resistance was easily overcome. There is even vicious rumors that Shamil Baseyev and other prominent Chechen rebels were in fact controlled stooges of the KGB/FSB..................not unlike the many insurgents in the NWFP working for the Pakistan military covertly whilst overtly fighting the Pakistan military simultaneously. For most civilians this paradox seems wholly inexplicable.

The Swat Taliban was set up by the Pakistan military.

There is hard evidence that a lot of the terrorist ops in Russia by so called Chechen insurgency groups were in fact the work of Russian intelligence.........we know this, because we can observe and study so called terrorist ops in the UK, USA, India and Pakistan and from the pattern we can see that in fact ONLY state organisations could have carried out such ops. In Russia's case intelligence officers who were brave informed the Russian people that a lot of the so called Chechen terrorism was in fact carried out by Russian intelligence, so that the people would embrace the government as saviours..........Beslan......the metro bombings.......Moscow theater bombings.

In this light and history we may conclude that the recent timely bombings in Russia must have some ulterior motive.

Let us widen the horizon and see what is going on in and around Russia geo-strategically.

Israel along with its International Jew organisation is MASTURBATING itself into a frenzy of self rage over Iran's none-existent nuclear bomb program (in reality Israel wants to downsize ALL significant Muslim countries which Israel perceives might be a threat to the vision of Eretz Israel in the future.......a somewhat ill defined and wide policy.............Iran is a big Middle Eastern country of 75 million people).........Russia is important for both arming Iran, and resisting calls for significant sanctions against Iran.................which are a prelude to war. Then such terrorism in Russia by Muslims becomes "useful" and coincidental in that narrow Jewish narrative.

By repeating Western Zionist media cliches about Russian Chechen terrorism without bothering to check the actual alternative facts leads one to doubt the agenda of the author here)

The same is happening in our tribal belt. Just when we have stamped out insurgents and criminals in some pockets [thanks to Gen. Kayani and his team], here comes the collateral damage – both from CIA drones and our own occasional mishaps – to create additional pools of disgruntled citizens ready to be picked up by anyone who has resources to use them against the Pakistani state.

(Yep.......The main problem is the Pakistan military, who cause the greatest amount of collateral damage in Pakistan. The collateral damage in Swat alone by the Pakistani military surpasses anything which the American military have so far achieved in the whole of Pakistan. The Americans conduct these ops inside Pakistan with Pakistani military approval. Kiyani is a kuta of the Americans)

It’s a vicious cycle that destroys the massive nation-building work that our military is conducting in places such as Swat, with the military’s own money and often without any support from incompetent civilian governments in Islamabad and Peshawar. For example, few people know that our soldiers donated two days’ pay to collect US$1.2 million to renovate more than half of the 400 schools in Swat destroyed by terrorist groups. The army is building roads and restoring water supply lines in Swat, even organizing cultural and musical events to provide much need entertainment to a disturbed population and restore normalcy. Not to mention achieving the impossible by restoring two million refugees back to their homes in less than a year.

(ha! ha! ha!)

But all of this good work is eaten away by the kind of massive bloodshed that occurred on April 10 at remote Tirah Valley of Khyber Agency. Despite the brave apology, the accident will create new rebels and revenge seekers. It also brings into focus an old complaint about the veracity of intelligence that the Americans have and share with our military. Once again, the insurgency within our tribal belt is directly linked with the American mismanagement in Afghanistan. Allowing the Americans or anyone else to set up spy networks inside our territory and unleash private defense contractors in beards and local dresses is like allowing our own people and territory to be treated in the same manner as Iraq and Afghanistan, which are foreign occupied zones. This foreign element, including collateral damage and the faulty intelligence that causes it, is also sending a wrong message to ambitious criminal and tribal leaders and politicians, and that message is: the Pakistani state and its military are too weak to check foreign meddling and thus taking matters into their own hands is a legitimate option.

(This current mess is the responsibility of COAS Kiyani and the Corps commanders...........nobody else)

Another mistake that is bound to breed more enemies for the state is our faulty policy of not clearly asserting that the Afghan Taliban along with any other Afghan parties are legitimate Afghan political players. Fighting them is not and should never be Pakistan’s responsibility. The presence of some Afghan Taliban on Pakistani soil is expected to due to close ties between Pakistani and Afghan Pashtuns, but the solution is not for Pakistan to help US eliminate them but to resolve the deadlock inside Afghanistan that has resulted in the Afghan Taliban escaping their country to take refuge here.

(It is unseemly for an educated person who is clean shaven, apparently urbane sophisticated, supporting such a medievel monstrosity as the Afghan Taliban, set up jointly by the Pakistanis and the USA from 1994...........lost causes and bad ideas should be let go.....clinging to them is a sign of weak character.

Yes under International law every people have the right to self determination. This law evolved since WWII, in light of WWII and its horrific events and the post-colonial struggles of oppressed people through out the world and especially in the Third World. Under International law a people occupied by foreign alien powers can take up arms and fight, and it is the duty of neighboring countries to sustain, arm, feed those insurgencies whilst they win the freedom for their country.

We can cite many International cases under this law.

And so Afghans have the right to seek self determination, and it is Pakistan's International law duty to help them.......but given its true origin and its fundamental nature, NOT THE AFGHAN TALIBAN.

Finally it is morally dupliticious and dangerous to be both taking AMERICAN MILITARY AND ECONOMIC aid, and hosting the Afghan Taliban Shura in Quetta..........who go and kill American servicemen in Afghanistan)

Make no mistake about it: rebels who terrorize and kill Pakistanis must be eliminated by force and without mercy. But allowing outsiders to kill our people directly or through faulty intelligence means we will see suicide attackers for a long time to come.

(That won't be the worst of it.....believe me)