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When one points to the current flaws of the Iranian strategic defense strategy, over several years, one is not conducting a cunning psychological warfare which entices misguided nations to attack Iran prematurely. This was never the intention, ever.
The Americans since 2004 have war gamed the scenario of war with Iran, and it has always proved inconclusive......they do not know the ultimate outcome....a nation of 1,648,195 km2 with 75 million people, sharing the border with Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Little Israel is interested at least officially, making repeated threats since 2003 of attacking Iran contrary to International Law, but lacks the capacity to conduct a lone operation which will have any serious effect on Iran......However threats from paranoid Israel should never be taken lightly. Preparations by Iran must be made.
I myself would like to see the Mafia Mullah regime in Tehran vanish from the page of history, through the struggle of the Iranian people INSIDE IRAN. An attack on Iran now or in the near future must logically solidify the Iranian people in supporting the Mafia Mullah regime in continuing in power, thus under cutting the nascent movement which is mobilizing in fighting against the Mafia Mullah regime.
In this light we hope the American administration keeps quiet about Iranian internal matters as does the Prince.
My suspicion is that as with Hamas, a creation of Israel from the 1970's, the Mafia Mullah's of Iran have covert linkages with Israel (Iran/Contra.....meetings in Rome more recently), and of course through the Crypto-Jew network within Iran which seems to predominate the Mafia Mullah regime (Ahmedinejad, Saeed Imami Deputy Head of Iranian Intelligence, until 1999).......and what we have here is a dangerous game of pantomime theater which could get out of control. The mullahs benefit from this dangerous pantomime because it deflects from the critical issues which substantively challenge Iran, and it benefits Israel because it allows Israel to be...well Israel.......cocky diminutive 18 year old in the full sense, in a sea of unchallenged brown, backed by a very big sugar daddy.
Whatever the mysteries of politics we know little about, one thing is clear, Iran is seriously misguided General if it bases it deterrence on a massive missile retaliation against Israel......using just 25 launchers and 400--600 missiles of dubious quality. Most of them will fly over Iraq, and there is a very good chance that the Americans can shoot a high percentage of them down....25 at a time........and then refueling for the next 25. Israel will finish off the rest. Saddam like threats should not be repeated by Iranian Generals at the very least, they sound silly and tin pot Third World. North Korean origin missiles tend to be unreliable, and rarely reach their target, and missiles unless they are nuclear tipped are and never have been a decisive weapon of war.......they are primarily a psychological weapon.
Now if you have 250 launchers, and some 6,000 missiles that can reach Israel then it is a different matter, but I hardly think basket weaving Iran with 10 million annual steel production, $850 billion GDP, with a low manufacturing base can achieve such a high production rate.
If you spend annually 3% of GDP on defense...... and in reality act and behave as if no attack could ever possibly take place against Iran then you could not ever achieve such high production targets of long range missiles required for a decisive response. Strategically it would NOT make sense turning ALL ordinance factories into producing long range missiles only, even if achieveable. Iran does not have the resoucres, and is not spending enough on defense.
Take my advice.......300,000 Revolutionary Guards full-time; 700,000 regular army, no conscripts; 50,000 airforce, and about 10,000 navy.......10% of GDP on defense annually, and not all the best equipment going to the Revolutionary Guard only. Focus on air defense.......12,000 LAA, 1,000 SAMS and 50,000 SAMs, and 20,000 Lt SAMS........and Don't block the Straights of Hormuz, it is an International Water......if you block it, the navies of the world will come to unblock it.
We note the navies of the world are combating Somali pirates not too far away.
Decentralized defensive warfare, nothing fancy.
Hoping that the Iranian people overthrow the Mafia Mullah regime before such a SAD outcome, the possibility of which may give erections to a few Generals and others but will be a major loss for all.
