Common sense and sober assessment vs rabid paranioc hysteria.

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This is yet another sober assessment by Professor Juan Cole about Iran, and its real situation and intentions, as a pose to the propaganda and hype that is often offered by the Western media about mullah Iran.

But there are also fundamental flaws in his assessment about Iran, which he fails to address. Fundamental concerns about Iran which he fails to address. This leaves the door open to the lynch mobs of public hysteria to attack Iran further; American policy against Iran has been as much about emotion as it has been about basic common sense, and what is in the best interests of America over the contentious issue of mullah Iran.

In trying to understand Iran, and from an American perspective build a working relationship, we must first find out how the mullah regime came about in the first place, in 1979, and then figure out from there, critically, what is the real rationale and policies of the mullah regime beyond the public rhetoric at Fridays prayers and other venues, the understanding of which holistically can be used to engage Iran more meaningfully, and for the best interests of America.

The mullahs were installed by the USA/UK:

http://www.netnative.com/news/06/mar/1090.html

Working closely with France:

http://mostaqueali.blogspot.com/2008/07/reality-of-british-puppets.html

For what purpose I can only speculate:

http://mostaqueali.blogspot.com/2007/12/mullah-puppets-of-zion.html

Israel was also most likely involved.
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What we can be sure about is that the mullahs were installed to subvert Iran, pull Iranian society backwards, and de-legitimate Iran in the eyes of the international community, ......and the Iranian regime certainly has done a good job in that department.

If we accept this basic premise and "understand" where its coming from in terms of its true origin, then engaging the country can be more effective. That is not to say that the mullahs should be permanently legitimated as rightful rulers of Iran; one wishes to see the mullah regime disappear from the page of history sooner or later, HOWEVER, what one does not want is a wholly unnecessary attack and subsequent war against Iran which is open ended just like Iraq and Afghanistan, based on false information and assumptions, which suits the fruitcake warmongers in Israel.
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America can "manage" to a certain extent mullah Iran if the USA is flexible and imaginative...........relations between the two countries can grow, without compromising American interests in the wider Middle East. You can influence the course of policy within the country far more effectively if American has diplomatic relations with a country, then you can from a great distance (e.g. Pakistan, and the huge embassy being built there soon) Certainly its high time a new track is applied by America over mullah puppet Iran.
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Informed Comment
Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion
By Professor Juan Cole, President of the Global Americana Institute

Thursday, October 01, 2009

Top Things you Think You Know about Iran that are not True:

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Thursday is a fateful day for the world, as the US, other members of the United Nations Security Council, and Germany meet in Geneva with Iran in a bid to resolve outstanding issues. Although Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had earlier attempted to put the nuclear issue off the bargaining table, this rhetorical flourish was a mere opening gambit and nuclear issues will certainly dominate the talks. As Henry Kissinger pointed out, these talks are just beginning and highly unlikely that there will be any breakthroughs for a very long time. Diplomacy is a marathon, not a sprint.
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But on this occasion, I thought I'd take the opportunity to list some things that people tend to think they know about Iran, but for which the evidence is shaky.
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Belief: Iran is aggressive and has threatened to attack Israel, its neighbors or the US.

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Reality: Iran has not launched an aggressive war modern history (unlike the US or Israel), and its leaders have a doctrine of "no first strike." This is true of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as of Revolutionary Guards commanders.

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(There is rhetorical hostility towards the USA, with rent-a-demonstrations, walking over American flags, burning American flags, America is the "Great Satan" slogan...and soon and soon, SO/BUT there is political rhetoric and then there is real state intentions.
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Chris Patten a British minister can be called the son of a whore by a certain state very publicly, and then he can just as easily next day sit with his exotic name callers, all smiles and handshakes, and continue with the serious business of state to state negotiations which benefit both countries.........or British diplomats in the presence of wife/children being beaten up by over zealous Revolutionary Guards personnel in Tehran, and yet in a short time relations between the two nations are back to normal.....business as usual.
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The thing is not to take ones queue about Iran from the American media, work one self up about it unnecessarily, which then leads American foreign policy, but rather take a calm sober, circumspect views of Iran......and think in terms of how to manage Iran in the best interests of America..........rather than huffing and puffing from a good distance, with a dose of threats, which is illegal under international law and not the long term productive answer.

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AND its not as if the mullahs don't like America........we have had sporadic covert relations between the two countries, since 1979. After all America with Britain, France and possibly Israel originally bought the mullahs into power, and then America got frozen out gradually.........
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"The October Surprise" on going in 1980,with shuttle meetings between Ahmed, Khomeini's son and other senior revolutionary figures with American officials in Paris and other parts of Europe, secretly.
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Iran/Contra in the 1980's, with Robert Macfarlane and other Reagan officials presenting cakes to the mullahs in Tehran in 1984/85 .
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.......the more recent co-operation against Taliban Afghanistan, and Saddam's Iraq; the meetings in Rome of senior Revolutionary Guards officers with American officials between 2001---2003 about "intelligence" sharing about Iraq, organized by the neocon Michael Ladeen.
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The meeting of Iranian officials with American government officers in the Gulf.....so why not normalize such surreptitious relations some of which are usually illegal, into formal legal negotiations, which everybody can observe, in the public limelight?......Will the world end for America? One thinks not.

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Iran has tried to formalize relations with America on 3 specific occasions, but was snubbed in all of them:
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1) 1995, "come and sign oil deals with us"....American response 1996, sanctions along with Arab Libya.
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2) 2001, "We have helped you in Afghanistan,and we have common interests in the region,so lets work together". American response in January 2002, Iran is part of the "Axis of Evil" along with Iraq and North Korea.
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3) Finally in 2003, via Switzerland....code number 3 NY/Germany, "We wish formalized negotiated relations with Israel; the cessation of funding for all external resistance groups; full cooperation in terms of Iraq; full cooperation with the nuclear question".......basically everything the Americans could only dream about in getting from Iran.....BUT American response,....after Iraq, its Iran's turn......the road to Tehran is through Iraq...blah..blah...blah.....and other such Cocky talk.

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Does the State Department have a copy of that 2003 letter?
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It certainly should not be about getting into a girlie sulk/huff, "nah..nana..nah....naa, I'm not talking to you. Can't hear you......."
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Belief: Iran is a militarized society bristling with dangerous weapons and a growing threat to world peace.
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Reality: Iran's military budget is a little over $6 billion annually. Sweden, Singapore and Greece all have larger military budgets. Moreover, Iran is a country of 70 million, so that its per capita spending on defense is tiny compared to these others, since they are much smaller countries with regard to population. Iran spends less per capita on its military than any other country in the Persian Gulf region with the exception of the United Arab Emirates.

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(Iran will never become a great military power, with an effective conventional offensive potential which threatens the region under the present regime.

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WHY SO?

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The mullahs installed by the USA/UK/France distrust the Iranian military and the possibility that they may attempt a coup against the unpopular mullah puppet regime. ...."Noje Coup" attempt in 1980 by 600 plus officers mainly in the airforce,tipped off to the mullah's by Gaddaffi, OR elements in Western intelligence keen to protect the newly installed mullah puppet regime----{basically if you are planning to overthrow the mullah regime don't plan it in a Western country, with the knowledge of Western officials.....remember the vast number of Iranian resistence members who have been killed in Europe....such things don't happen without the approval of local security.......in Paris especially.}.......In addition, just to make sure, the mullahs have periodically culled large numbers of senior military officers within mullah Iran, including Revolutionary Guard commanders in the classic manner of the Soviet purges of the Red army in the 1930's.
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The Turkish Military have 1 million men under arms working closely with Israhell/USA, and the other neighbor Pakistan has 1.1 million security men under arms working closely with the USA{Jundallah}. Mean while Iran has 420,000 men in the Iranian military, 350,000 army, 50,000 airforce, 20,000 navy.....spending 3% on defence {a nation supposedly about to be attacked by Israel or USA}......200 serviceable jets, 1600 tanks,and 3,000 serviceable artillery......The Russians don't sell them huge quantities of conventional arms but rather piecemeal arms transfers which are usually sold at over inflated prices........which are subsequently hounded down and criticised by Israel/USA.....)
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Belief: Iran has threatened to attack Israel militarily and to "wipe it off the map."
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Reality: No Iranian leader in the executive has threatened an aggressive act of war on Israel, since this would contradict the doctrine of 'no first strike' to which the country has adhered. The Iranian president has explicitly said that Iran is not a threat to any country, including Israel.
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(Mistranslation by MEMRI, DEBKA, and IRNA the later of which is allied to the Rafsanjani camp, and repeated and amplified by the Zionist media as the gospel truth. A mullah regime installed by the USA/UK/France which is fundamentalist Islam isn't going to wipe out the site in Jerusalem where the prophet Mohammed ascended to heaven, and go down in history as the destroyers of that very important site........one of the most holiest sites of Islam, together with 4 million Palestinians.....just ain't going to happen....unless you are a paraniod batshit schizo Jew, who thinks Iran is 6 months away from the nuke bomb for the last 30 years.........search the articles in Israeli newspapers over the last 30 years)
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Belief: But didn't President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threaten to 'wipe Israel off the map?

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Reality: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did quote Ayatollah Khomeini to the effect that "this Occupation regime over Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time" (in rezhim-e eshghalgar-i Qods bayad as safheh-e ruzgar mahv shavad). This was not a pledge to roll tanks and invade or to launch missiles, however. It is the expression of a hope that the regime {in Tel-a-Viv} will collapse, just as the Soviet Union did. It is not a threat to kill anyone at all.
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(Ahmedinejad is a pint sized crypto-Jew placed into power to bait and rouse the rabble; the sedative and circus distraction for the Iranian masses to forget about their daily woes under mullah misrule...http://mostaqueali.blogspot.com/2009/02/ahmedinejad-jew.html but, yes, he was misquoted....he did not say he wanted to wipe Israel off the map)
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Belief: But aren't Iranians Holocaust deniers?
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Actuality: Some are, some aren't. Former president Mohammad Khatami has castigated Ahmadinejad for questioning the full extent of the Holocaust, which he called "the crime of Nazism." Many educated Iranians in the regime are perfectly aware of the horrors of the Holocaust. In any case, despite what propagandists imply, neither Holocaust denial (as wicked as that is) nor calling Israel names is the same thing as pledging to attack it militarily.
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(Really prof. what % of Iranians actually sit at home pondering seriously over the esoteric subject of Israel.........1%...maybe 2%........the most likely topic of concern/worry for the average Iranian is more likely to be the price of food,transport, basic commodities,their wages and salary, work, the economy, the harvest, Afghan and foreign refugees in Iran; education; crime....and perhaps local politics...linked to these subjects)

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Belief: Iran is like North Korea in having an active nuclear weapons program, and is the same sort of threat to the world.

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Actuality: Iran has a nuclear enrichment site at Natanz near Isfahan where it says it is trying to produce fuel for future civilian nuclear reactors to generate electricity. All Iranian leaders deny that this site is for weapons production, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly inspected it and found no weapons program. Iran is not being completely transparent, generating some doubts, but all the evidence the IAEA and the CIA can gather points to there not being a weapons program. The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate by 16 US intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency, assessed with fair confidence that Iran has no nuclear weapons research program. This assessment was based on debriefings of defecting nuclear scientists, as well as on the documents they brought out, in addition to US signals intelligence from Iran. While Germany, Israel and recently the UK intelligence is more suspicious of Iranian intentions, all of them were badly wrong about Iraq's alleged Weapons of Mass Destruction and Germany (intelligence) in particular was taken in by Curveball, a drunk Iraqi braggart.

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(Well this was politicised intelligence; intelligence to fit the official political narrative of war against Iraq........as described by Sir Richard Dearlove in 2002. Since then maybe with the outcome of Iraq, and Afghanistan, in hindsight a second thought is emerging based on the result of the previous two follies of war..........mullah Iran purely for ideological reasons is not interested in nuclear weapons........in the Gulf war against Saddam, they faced Saddam's chemical weapons for many years without responding with the like for a while......this should tell us something.)

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Belief: The West recently discovered a secret Iranian nuclear weapons plant in a mountain near Qom.

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Actuality: Iran announced Monday a week ago to the International Atomic Energy Agency that it had begun work on a second, civilian nuclear enrichment facility near Qom. There are no nuclear materials at the site and it has not gone hot, so technically Iran is not in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, though it did break its word to the IAEA that it would immediately inform the UN of any work on a new facility. Iran has pledged to allow the site to be inspected regularly by the IAEA, and if it honors the pledge, as it largely has at the Natanz plant, then Iran cannot produce nuclear weapons at the site, since that would be detected by the inspectors. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton admitted on Sunday that Iran could not produce nuclear weapons at Natanz precisely because it is being inspected. Yet American hawks have repeatedly demanded a strike on Natanz.
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Belief: The world should sanction Iran not only because of its nuclear enrichment research program but also because the current regime stole June's presidential election and brutally repressed the subsequent demonstrations.
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Actuality: Iran's reform movement is dead set against increased sanctions on Iran, which likely would not affect the regime, and would harm ordinary Iranians.

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(Iranian elections are fixed as they are in many other banana countries.........Ahmedinejad is the circus clown performing for the ruling mullah junta, as a non-mullah, and behind the mullah's, certain European powers "guiding"the country........it is a brutal theocratic dictatorship which mass murdered many people upon coming to power in 1979, and sending 5 million educated middle class Iranians out of the country as refugees; the death of 100,000 Iranians in the great civil war against the Tudeh Communist left alliance during 1981-82; 8 years war against Iraq claiming the lives of 1 million Iranian men and children.....no war against Iraq if the Shah, and the Iranian military intact were still in power; the summary execution of 30,000 Iranian civilians on the panic belief that Saddam would occupy Tehran in 1988; summary and primitive justice for many Iranians since...........Iran is not a democracy in any shape or form...and the Iranian people should struggle alone to over throw this alien imposed puppet regime.........The West is not interested in doing so)
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Belief: Isn't the Iranian regime irrational and crazed, so that a doctrine of mutally assured destruction just would not work with them?

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Actuality: Iranian politicians are rational actors. If they were madmen, why haven't they invaded any of their neighbors? Saddam Hussein of Iraq invaded both Iran and Kuwait. Israel invaded its neighbors more than once. In contrast, Iran has not started any wars. Demonizing people by calling them unbalanced is an old propaganda trick. The US elite was once unalterably opposed to China having nuclear science because they believed the Chinese are intrinsically irrational. This kind of talk is a form of racism.

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Belief: The international community would not have put sanctions on Iran, and would not be so worried, if it were not a gathering nuclear threat.

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Actuality: The centrifuge technology that Iran is using to enrich uranium is open-ended. In the old days, you could tell which countries might want a nuclear bomb by whether they were building light water reactors (unsuitable for bomb-making) or heavy-water reactors (could be used to make a bomb). But with centrifuges, once you can enrich to 5% to fuel a civilian reactor, you could theoretically feed the material back through many times and enrich to 90% for a bomb. However, as long as centrifuge plants are being actively inspected, they cannot be used to make a bomb. The two danger signals would be if Iran threw out the inspectors or if it found a way to create a secret facility. The latter task would be extremely difficult, however, as demonstrated by the CIA's discovery of the Qom facility construction in 2006 from satellite photos. Nuclear installations, especially centrifuge ones, consume a great deal of water, construction materiel, and so forth, so that constructing one in secret is a tall order. In any case, you can't attack and destroy a country because you have an intuition that they might be doing something illegal. You need some kind of proof. Moreover, Israel, Pakistan and India are all much worse citizens of the globe than Iran, since they refused to sign the NPT and then went for broke to get a bomb; and nothing at all has been done to any of them by the UNSC.

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Belief: Iran is the greatest sponsor of global terrorism, and a threat to world peace:

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Actuality: USA/Israel are the greatest sponsors of global terrorism, used as extentions of covert state policy......mafia style. http://amconmag.com/article/2007/feb/12/00017/ and not forgetting USA/Israel covert activity in South/Central America, Africa, Europe, and Asia.......really where ever America goes covertly, for some reason the Israelis invite themselves along, and the Americans seem to have no problems with that..............but what about "al-Qaeda" and Iran......."al-Qaeda" fictional fake "al-Qaeda" is a hologram front of Western/Israeli intelligence. http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/fakealqaeda.html but lets all pretend that "al-Qaeda" really does exist...........it is a Sunni fundamentalist organisation,which allegedly butchered Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif in 1998, which caused the mullahs to mass 250,000 on the Afghan border....whilst Iran is a SHIA fundamentalist state, which hates "al-Qaeda" with a vengence....they are not going to work together ever.

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Iran does sponsor, train, arm and finance the Lebanese based Hizbollah with about $100 million a year, which is a SHIA only organisation, representing 40% of Lebanon's population,along with AMAL {America gives terrorist Israel possibly $5 billion a year, with far, far worse consequences for the world}. It is not a terrorist group, but a local national liberation movement that conducts its operations EXCLUSIVELY against military targets within Lebanon, and Israel. Iran does fund Hamas, and other Palestinian groups who seek "self-determination '' within their own country, but it is doubtful whether Shia Iran is in addition extensively arming them to the same level as Hizbollah.....since they are Sunni Islamic fundamentalist groups..........the Palestinians have the right to bear arms and struggle for national liberation, within their own country, under "self-determination" and international law....if they feel that Israel has no sincere desire for peaceful co-existence..........and Iran can legally supply them with arms if the Palestinians so do request such assistence.
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Belief: Iran is funding and fueling the Iraqi resistence, which has killed approaching 5,000 USA servicemen.

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Actuality: The main resistance against the hostile American occupation of Iraq for 6 years ongoing is from the SUNNI 20% minority of Iraq who have been traditionally the rulers of Iraq for about 1,300 years, when the Islamic Caliphate was first established. There are 30,000 "bitter enders" fighting the American forces, of which 5% are foreign fighters drawn from Saudi Arabia, Syria, and other Arab countries....often mistakenly labeled as "al-Qaeda"....1,500...in Iraq to protect and fight for the Sunni minority,as much as fight the American occupation forces. America has since attempted to buy many of these Iraqi Sunni fighters under various schemes.

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Lets put it another way, since the American hostile occupation of Iraq, for the first time in history, for 1,300 years, SHIA rulers are in "control" of the country, and the puppet mullahs in Tehran are to say the least ecstatic about this unique historical occurrence via America's good grace, because two of the holiest sites for SHIA Islam is in Iraq, Karbellah and Najaf, extensively damaged by Saddam......SO it would not be in Iran's interests to destabilize the Iraqi apple cart NOW, but rather assist the Americans in their effort, as the Iranians have repeatedly offered in clear diplomatic channels. Further Iranians have good reasons to hate Saddam, and are to an extent grateful to America in removing Saddam.

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The American military have made some clumsy presentations which purport to show Iranian involvement in the Iraqi resistence.....but nobody has taken them seriously.

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Belief: Like Saddam and his WMD programs, and his linkages with "al-Qaeda", and the covert meetings in Prague of the operatives of the two organisations, as stated by non other than Dick Cheney.............Iran in the future after building the nuke bomb just might hand over one such device to "al-Qaeda" which is subsequently exploded in a Western country.

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Actuality: Whilst SHIA Islam does advocate martyrdom in the battle field fighting ones armed foe conventionally...mano-o-mano, the religion does not specifically call for mass NATIONAL suicide and which does not provide specific strategic benefits for Iran {stated with a straight face given the nature of the topic}.........the puppet mullahs installed by the USA/UK/France, and manipulated by certain European powers from the background ultimately must be RATIONAL to have ruled Iran for 30 years.

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One also must assume that the mullahs over the years have grown rather fond of ruling Iran, with all the attendant perks {many of them are now billionaires, living above the law}.....so why would they want to throw ALL that away, and kill themselves, and their families, and destroy their country as would happen in any retaliatory attack.

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All the indications and chatter out of Iran indicates the mullahs are CRAVING LEGITIMACY, AND DIPLOMATIC RECOGNITION FROM THE USA.......and the maintenance of the present status quo within Iran for many more years to come, rather than end it all suddenly for no clear justifiable rational reason...........the peculiar perspectives of schizo-Jews and their butt buddies not withstanding, and their arrogance is dishing out such basic boogie boogie stories to the rest of the gentile poplation.

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"al-Qaeda" is SUNNI fundamentalist, which allegedly butchered Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif in 1998, Northern Afghanistan, causing Iran to mobilise 250,000 troops on the Afghan/Iran border. The mullahs call the Taliban and by implication "al-Qaeda" as "fossilised dinosaurs". In short mullah SHIA Iran hates the "al-Qaeda".

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There are about 100-200 "al-Qaeda" operatives in Iran, but they are not invited guests living the life of Reilly....most are under house arrest, with very restricted movement. But why are they in SHIA Iran? After the American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 many Arab fighters allied to the Taliban escaped to Pakistan, then back to their countries via Oman, whilst other Arab fighters attempted to reach their country through Iran, especially if they happened to be in the vicinity of Western Afghanistan.....some reached their country of origin, whilst others were caught by Iranian security...............the Afghan/Iranian border is very long and porous.

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The Iraqi/Saddam/al-Qaeda/WMD/Prague meet-up proved to be a dud, and a fabrication to justfy war against Iraq. When prominent Jewess's and Jewish "experts" and their attendant butt buddy gentiles repeat this mantra ad nauseum in the media, "I'm just so scared the day "al-Qaeda"gets hold of a nuke bomb" without elaborating this simple crass sound bite.........then for sure Western security should be alert to Israel's intentions and modes for justifying endless war in their attempt at trying to achieve Eretz Israel.....by what ever means.

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6................dead in WTC 1993.

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169............dead at Oklahoma.1995. http://judicial-inc.biz/Oklahoma_City_Bomb.htm

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3,000.........dead in the vicinity of the twin towers on 9/11. 2001.

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10,000---40,000.......dead because of a dirty bomb from "al-Qaeda". 2011.

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Israel was involved in ALL the above through their local security contacts in the USA.........that created the present security state in the USA, AND which allowed Israel to exert a greater influence over such a security state, AND ensured this security state followed Israel's geo-strategic agenda exclusively.

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Such evil dastardly things seem to happen/evolve during Democractic party rule,as it is the party which is closer to Israel,and more "Jewish" than the Republican party....80% of Jews vote for the Democractic party traditionally.

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This particular soundbite is used as a threat by the Jews and their gentile butt buddies,"Do as we say, or else you know what "al-Qaeda"will do."

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The question is how self respecting gentiles in the West react to such banal obvious public threats.