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First thing first, drones are a rich mans weapon system filled with high tech meant to surveil or harass the enemy from a great distance.....with no risk of the loss of life to the user.
1. It would be a sad IRONY if the incidence of a drone being shot down leads to the actual loss of life on the users side due to an escalating conflict.
2. Drones being shot down ON NUMEROUS OCCASIONS by belligerent forces have NOT lead to a greater escalation of conflict, but that drones are an accepted part of the modern battle field which either side in a conflict can attempt to shoot down if there is justifiable cause.
3. Given the greater use of drones in conflict zones, it would be a negative PRECEDENCE, where the shooting down of one drone in highly contentious circumstances and 'hot contested areas' were to automatically lead to greater conflagration or casus belli for/toward greater conflict. Further that this is not another exceptional situation applied ONLY by America to American drones.
NATO Doenme Turkey sends weaponized drones via MIT to ISIS/'al-CIA-duh' in the Idlib region NW of Syria, and they are fired in swarms at Russian bases by the terrorists...........Russia knows who fired them and who supplied them (Israel/USA). What DO THE Russians DO, THEY OFFER THE S-400 air-defense system to NATO Turkey.
India sends drones into Pakistan, some of which are shot down and Pakistan sends drones into India, some of which are shot down.
Israel sends drones into Syria and Lebanon, some of which are shot down, and Syria and Hezbollah sends drones into Northern Israel, some which are shot down.
The EXCEPTIONAL USA DOES one better. Drones firing hellfire rockets in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Libya and Somalia kill MOSTLY innocent civilians......in weak third world nations where the ruling elite have been brought by Washington or the nation is a backward failed state with no recourse to defending itself against indiscriminate drone use......popularized by Obummer as an expression of American technological prowess and invincibility (psychological).
CIA Medieval Mullah Iran is not Somalia....as a 1000 Pentagon war games since 2003 have discovered.
The Israelis/CIA assassinate Iranian scientists inside Iran, but no revenge action is taken by the Iranians to kill Israeli scientists.
The Israelis/CIA carry out terrorism using MEK/PJAK/JUNDALLAH and ISIS inside Iran, but Iran does not punish the CIA or Israel beyond capturing local Iranian culprits.
The CIA/Israelis kill four Pasdaran generals in Syria, but again Iran does not retaliate against the Israelis and CIA.
There is no direct evidence the CIA/Israel did it.
BUT, when a high profile attack takes place inside/near Iran the CIA Medieval banana republic Mullahs are obligated to take action against the specific target who did it publicly.
Example: In 1998 The Sunni Wahabi CIA Taliban slaughtered Iranian diplomats and family members in the city of Mazar-i-Sharif (Iran backed the Northern Alliance)....Iran immediately massed 250,000 troops on the Afghan border against the 'fossilized dinosaurs' foe....the Taliban apologized, and the Iranians reminded the CIA Taliban that there were 2 million Afghans in Iran earning much needed remittance money....end of saga.
Iran is not Syria. Iran will respond and the situation can be open ended for many years like the 8 year GULF WAR between Iran and Iraq, where 1,000,000 Iranians died at the front lines. If attacked by the USA, the mullahs to save their legitimacy will have to respond, or lose credibility and face.......and thus eventually power.
- The real winner of an American attack on Iran will be Russia. When oil stops flowing from/through the Persian Gulf the price of oil will sky-rocket causing major disruptions to the oil market, and demand and supply in the USA. Russia is the only major oil producer which can (management/technology/resources) fill in the gap for supply of the oil following after Persian Gulf conflagration.
- Donald Trump will lose the 2020 election based on high oil prices, and the much promised slogan of no more wars to the base...America first.
- The fragile oil based economies of the GCC member countries with their 80% immigrant workforces, EX-PAT Iranians and Shia's, will COLLAPSE.
- The GLOBAL DERIVATIVES MARKET BASED IN THE USA MOSTLY, and worth over $1 quadrillion will collapse, bringing down with it the entire AMERICAN PAPER BASED SPECULATIVE ECONOMY.
- Hello China, real economic superpower of the world and Russia, fossil fuel based superpower of the world with its oil and gas much in demand in Europe and around the world....as it is a safe reliable source. Maybe President Biden sends Hunter to sign oil deals with Russia's Rosneft in 2021....just as Hilary with Robert Mueller signed Uranium deals with Putin.
PRESIDENT TRUMP watches a lot of trash fake television, and it would be a pity if he were to be goaded by the likes of them knee-jerked into war. The Fake Globalist media have surely calculated that a war against Iran would seal the fate of the Trump PRESIDENCY. Perhaps a safety valve should develop between what the president watches on the fake media, and the strategic decisions he makes.
The drone that was shot down by Iran looks spookily like the drone that fired the big cruise missile into the Pentagon on 9/11. Maybe its another insider Deep State joke. But Deep State insiders responsible for 9/11, and the most corrupt enterprise in America....THE PENTAGON, don't make good CEO's of the USA generally.
Conclusion:
Great Imperial powers should not always swat the proverbial fly.
It is given that the USA with its $1.5 trillion security budget (Chalmers Johnson) is the premier superpower in the world, and can do serious damage to Iran........but strategic inaction sometimes is not such a bad thing.
Lets have serious policy on Iran, that wasn't developed in Rothschild London.....and effected through the CIA/State Department.
